If Technical Analysis doesn’t work, how do you define a bull market?

[biloselhi]

bull or bear market best defined on weekly or monthly charts, used typically for general market timing on
portfolio level trading or/and investment
typically sp500
bull market = up trend
consecutive up swings with higher pivot highs and lows
( vv for bear market )
5% down - pullback in a bull market
7% down - still considered a pullback in a bull market
anything < 10% drop in bull market is considered a pullback
within the trend and a buying opportunity if the market turns around around those levels
10% down - correction threshold in bull market, minor correction
>= 10% down - market in the correction zone
20-30% zone - typical correction
> 50% drop severe correction
severe correction / bubble pop typically follow severe market bubbles where the current bubble >= prev. bubble

market timing:
academic view - market timing ( identifying tops and bottoms ) is impossible
trader's view - possible, using various techniques:
price action, patterns, breadth, volume, volatility, sentiment, business cycles, seasonalities etc... news, technical and fundamental analysis

TA - market timing is basically trend id,
id lag is typical, various techniques to id the trend

predicting the trend is not necessary usually, but typical gain/loss projections can be made based on speed and volatility, with large errors though, > 30% error is typical error on stat nowcast or t+1 models

 

[deaddog]

That decision is always about 50-50 and there doesn't seem to be anything you can do to swing the odds more favorably.

Money management!!

If you are gambling, as Simp suggests, I don't know of any casino game, with the exception of surrender in blackjack, where you can take your money off the table when it looks like you have a losing proposition.

Your edge is that you get to control what you do.

 

[oraclewizard77]

Money management!!

If you are gambling, as Simp suggests, I don't know of any casino game, with the exception of surrender in blackjack, where you can take your money off the table when it looks like you have a losing proposition.

Your edge is that you get to control what you do.

I would disagree. An edge is the ability to identify or program a profitable trade setup where over time it achieves a 55% or higher win ratio.

This can be pattern recognition of price action for chart reading, or even understanding how to correctly use certain technical indicators to identify a trade setup.

Stops can be either mental or automatic or a combination like I use when I want to watch the trade.

In black jack, it's not surrender but the ability to count cards and increase or decrease bet size based on the count. I do count cards, you don't have to go to MIT to learn to do this.

 

[SimpleMeLike]

Your edge is that you get to control what you do.

The only Trading Edge(s) that exist are:

1. insider trading or ponzi scheme that is guaranteed to make money
2. Algo back tested and forward tested in SIM and Real Time trading strategy. Atleast 1 year of real time trading making money as well to qualify as an Edge.

Everything else related to trading is gambling and guessing with your trading skill, trading experienced, or something someone taught you that may work.

 

[Fonz]

An edge makes money.
Money management helps to keep it.

 

[deaddog]

In black jack, it's not surrender but the ability to count cards and increase or decrease bet size based on the count. I do count cards, you don't have to go to MIT to learn to do this.

How do you make out. I found the equity swings to be too wide.

There are days you just run into a hot dealer. I've seen guys that know better go on tilt when the count is in your favor but you can't win a hand.

Again money management keeps you in the game. I can leave the table any time I want. The dealer can't, although I've seen a pit boss change a dealer when she's running cold.

 

[SimpleMeLike]

An edge makes money.
Money management helps to keep it.

no need for money management, if you have an edge.
no need for risk management, if you have an edge.

If you have an edge, you have an edge.

 

[oraclewizard77]

How do you make out. I found the equity swings to be too wide.

There are days you just run into a hot dealer. I've seen guys that know better go on tilt when the count is in your favor but you can't win a hand.

Again money management keeps you in the game. I can leave the table any time I want. The dealer can't, although I've seen a pit boss change a dealer when she's running cold.

I would try to make around $ 400 and then leave. If I lose after starting, I would quit if I am down around $ 100. I don't live in Las Vegas so I don't gamble much.

I found that I if I work overtime at my job, I make good money plus they have extra things that I can do that they don't tax me on. I only trade part time at night, plus most people don't really make money everyday trading. My best system had months that were negative but was profitable for the year. Yes, there are a few people on ET that do make money day trading, but maybe that is 10 out of 10,000.

 

[Scataphagos]

Money management!!

If you are gambling, as Simp suggests, I don't know of any casino game, with the exception of surrender in blackjack, where you can take your money off the table when it looks like you have a losing proposition.

Your edge is that you get to control what you do.

Gambling? What's with that? Trading isn't gambling... unless you don't know what you're doing.

 

[volpri]

In real time this method can be open to interpretation at the time.....
Is it a dummy move?
Am I too soon in my call?
Does it require confirmation?
After waiting for confirmation, am I now too late?
Volume or some other indicator you may use, may not confirm the move.

How do you deal with this? The dummy move is quite common, then a dummy dummy move.
Breakout, failed breakout, then breakout or even go whipsawing a bit like natural gas atm.

Lol All trading is objectivity combined with subjectivity. It cannot be any other way. Key words for subjectivity: “interpretation” “belief” “feeling” “my observation” “my experience” “my opinion” “my perception”

Keys words for objectivity: “facts” “reality” “it is” “scientific” “absence of bias and prejudice” “not influenced by opinion or personal feelings”

Every traders experience is a combination of both. It cannot be otherwise and that is MY OPINION! And that is a FACT!

The word objectivity has embedded within it the word “object”. So we are looking for an object …a real thing…but then we have to put our spin on it (our deduction our interpretation) for it to become some manner of usefulness for us otherwise, it remains just an object.

I may or may not be right!

But as an exercise read ET’s post looking for key words above. Things will become clearer.

PS subjectivity of itself is not inherently a sin. Objectivity can be.