If somebody has an experience of copying losing strategy with reverse?

[murray t turtle]

MushinSeeker, How would you adjust flies at 205 Peak; Thanks. Kindly share 2 detailed examples of using estimated non-normal prob. distribution trades like Bender detailed the examples of gold and the US Stock Index. I would be forever grateful. Gaurav

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Well G8b, its some thing like this , since you used his gold trade as an example.Say QQQ hits 52 week highs, in APR or early May= most likely goes higher hitting new buys@ that level. Good thing for the bulls most companies are run better/ better earnings than TSLA, WBA

Or say TSLA+ WBA + DKS hit 52 week lows again, highest probability is lower lows, again .
Short systems seldom make what longs do , so have to work around that with ETFs + related ...........................................................................................................

 

[mushinseeker]

MushinSeeker, How would you adjust flies at 205 Peak; Thanks. Kindly share 2 detailed examples of using estimated non-normal prob. distribution trades like Bender detailed the examples of gold and the US Stock Index. I would be forever grateful. Gaurav

I misspoke, I wouldnt 'adjust' at 205... I would just initially put the peak at 205 and not even bother with the 200 strike. I use Amibroker to model what filters create condition that favor a 205 pin vs a 200 pin with x days till exp. As far as scenarios.Said system above can be programmed to give me payout of an ATM, or OTM option position. That position can be a fly, a calendar,etc. I then go into my universe of tickers and apply filter such as MA, MACD and a bunch of proprietary stuff. Then I would run backtests and see if filter a,b makes more $$ with flies than others. So a 50 day moving avg might signal that a new uptrend is coming and the best position to harness that might be a calendar slightly above current price bec normally MA crossover signal a trend change so there wold be some back-and-fill which gives my calendar time to mature.Contrast that with another example where a ticker penetrates a multi year low on hi volume, my system might favor a bear spread or a backspread because that filter wont signal a back and fill. It would just drop!stuff like that. A lot of this is common sense market truisms.

 

[Mellov]

All you need is a consistent-losing strategy. If it is consistent, all you have to do it turn it around. The problem is, it is equally hard to find a consistently losing strategy and a consistently winning strategy.

This is just the plain truth. Finding a consistently losing signal and turn it to profit in the reverse direction is a winning strategy. If this was easy, everyone will be winning.

 

[pipeguy]

If somebody has an experience of copying losing strategy with reverse, please post your opinion in this thread.

Volatility will kill this idea. Tested. It's not only about right entry points but timing too.

 

[Mellov]

Volatility will kill this idea. Tested. It's not only about right entry points but timing too.

It just cant work. If one cannot 100% predict a winning trade, you can't do that for a losing trade. Am I missing something?

 

[wwatson1]

HaHa, I think many if not most developing (frustrated) "traders" go through a period where nothing seems to work..."I know, I'll just fade myself."

Yep, been there done that.

 

[maxinger]

Just trade with the newbie trader.
When newbie trader buys, you do the reverse.
When newbie trader sells, you buy.

 

[schweiz]

Volatility will kill this idea. Tested. It's not only about right entry points but timing too.

Exactly. You should analyze each trade separately and then it will be clear that this will not work. Asking the question already proofs that OP never did any effort to find this out himself.

 

[pipeguy]

It just cant work. If one cannot 100% predict a winning trade, you can't do that for a losing trade. Am I missing something?

Absolutely correct. I would say that your statement is concise version of mine.

 

[wwatson1]

Just trade with the newbie trader.
When newbie trader buys, you do the reverse.
When newbie trader sells, you buy.

So we should carry a newbie round with us??