If so many people are unsuccessful traders...
- Thread starter IronFist
- Start date
"I get in and it stops going up and wiggles till I get out. Then it blasts away."
----------- halleluja! -----------------
Exacltly the kind of stuff I see all the time. Thanks scalper. Or when you enter at an exact number, and when you are wrong it somehow hovers right around that number, but doesn't exceed it because they know you don't want to log a loss
(wash sale, whatever reason). You hit the nail on the head, and these little games add up.
For people who say, "but they program trade, how can that be manipulated?"
All the better, no one can think and execute that fast. But, you enter some prime real time information into the algorithm database, like what is the aggregate volume up or down, and are the traders retail or institutional? Add to that more sub information decision constructs, what are the traders habits on covering? Do they have stops? Or some new ones like "alerts" from SSPro.; nicely masked as an aid to the trader-- I can almost always predict they'll run it to the alert threshold level, even though it's supposedly not on the books.
How about the trader? Is it a level playing field, uh... we are limited to completely masked and distorted LII, as well as backdoor ECNs that aren't even on the bid/ask... order flow order flow order flow.
It's all about the information you have available. Even the elite proffesors, who created back prop algorithms failed, because they ultimately determined that the information had too many real time innacuracies causing the system to fail (Predictors). Certainly, I'm sure however, that the profs. that work for firms with access to the information do well.
Not to sound like a whiner here, but the facts are the cards are stacked against the retial trader in an unlevel playing field -- in a big way. Can you profit?
I've made lots of profits, but for everytime you are right, they always have the edge. Don't assume that if you switch sides to your paper trade, you will win, that edge is still working against you.
----------- halleluja! -----------------
Exacltly the kind of stuff I see all the time. Thanks scalper. Or when you enter at an exact number, and when you are wrong it somehow hovers right around that number, but doesn't exceed it because they know you don't want to log a loss
(wash sale, whatever reason). You hit the nail on the head, and these little games add up.
For people who say, "but they program trade, how can that be manipulated?"
All the better, no one can think and execute that fast. But, you enter some prime real time information into the algorithm database, like what is the aggregate volume up or down, and are the traders retail or institutional? Add to that more sub information decision constructs, what are the traders habits on covering? Do they have stops? Or some new ones like "alerts" from SSPro.; nicely masked as an aid to the trader-- I can almost always predict they'll run it to the alert threshold level, even though it's supposedly not on the books.
How about the trader? Is it a level playing field, uh... we are limited to completely masked and distorted LII, as well as backdoor ECNs that aren't even on the bid/ask... order flow order flow order flow.
It's all about the information you have available. Even the elite proffesors, who created back prop algorithms failed, because they ultimately determined that the information had too many real time innacuracies causing the system to fail (Predictors). Certainly, I'm sure however, that the profs. that work for firms with access to the information do well.
Not to sound like a whiner here, but the facts are the cards are stacked against the retial trader in an unlevel playing field -- in a big way. Can you profit?
I've made lots of profits, but for everytime you are right, they always have the edge. Don't assume that if you switch sides to your paper trade, you will win, that edge is still working against you.
you are wrong
mm's are required by contract to offer a fair bid and offer (in other words take both sides of the markets at ALL times)
do they do this perfectly all the time? no
but it is a loser-trader meme and completely divorced from reality to blame your trading losses on MM's gunning for YOUR stops. if they are gunning for your stops they are also offering a BETTER entry price if you are smart, anyways. iow, when they gunned for other people's stops that could help you just as much as hurt you
it's a stupid, nonsensical complaint.
mm's are part of the market, and can offer as much edge to some tradersthey take from others, if you know how to trade.
iow, if you think a stock is going to go up, if you see a support level, and if you think a mm is gonna gun for stops at that support level, then THAT is where you should enter.
duh
but it's ridiculous to blame MM's.
mm's are required by contract to offer a fair bid and offer (in other words take both sides of the markets at ALL times)
do they do this perfectly all the time? no
but it is a loser-trader meme and completely divorced from reality to blame your trading losses on MM's gunning for YOUR stops. if they are gunning for your stops they are also offering a BETTER entry price if you are smart, anyways. iow, when they gunned for other people's stops that could help you just as much as hurt you
it's a stupid, nonsensical complaint.
mm's are part of the market, and can offer as much edge to some tradersthey take from others, if you know how to trade.
iow, if you think a stock is going to go up, if you see a support level, and if you think a mm is gonna gun for stops at that support level, then THAT is where you should enter.
duh
but it's ridiculous to blame MM's.
I have taken the opposite side of a friends trade and we both came out ahead, Psychology, discipline, and money management is what it takes to make it in this game, the side your on should be the least of your worries.
Here is some food for thought about this issue:
As the last poster just mentioned, exit points are very important.
As simple as it sounds, making money is just buying low and sellig high. Of course, the order of each is up to you (i.e. short and buy low).
Here is one of a zillion examples:
Take WFR on Friday, Jan 26, 2007.
Say Joe watches the stock gap up and soar and decides its a great buy and buys at 51.00/share at 9:40 am.
Say Fred is sitting next to Joe and sees he just bought WFR but Fred says he is going to wait for a pullback before buying. Sure enough, WFR drops immediately from 51 all the way down to about 49.50. Fred jumps in at 49.50 and feels like he made a great buy because he just got it for 1.50/share less than his buddy Joe.
So Joe and Fred sit there watching WFR bounce along.
Joe still feels he made a good stock pick and is content to hold on.
Fred on the other hand is very nervous about his trade and sets a stop loss @ 49.20 figuring he got in at a very low price and if it drops down to 49.20 he is cutting out fast before he loses his shirt.
Sure enough, WFR drops past the 49.20 level at about 10:35am and Fred's stop is executed.
Fred tells Joe he better get out and take his 1.80/share loss or lose even more. Joe says "no way, I am not selling for this big a loss, besides I think its a great deal at this price", and Joe doubles up his position.
Fred tells Joe he is sending good money after bad and is an idiot.
Sure enough, WFR heads back up again, and Joe sells off at 3:55 for a tidy sum profit!
This is just one stock on one day. There are literally a zillion other possible scenarios out there.
As you can see from my little story, there are many ways to trade the same stock and make money.
I am sure folks were shorting WFR on Friday and making money, as well as folks being long. As a novice you would say it is impossible for one guy to be long and another being short to make money on the same stock in the same day.
You might also say "how is it possible for a guy to buy a stock at 51 and make money the same day a guy who bought it at 49.50 and lost money."
One last thing to think about: You may or may not have read or heard that the one proven investing strategy is dollar cost averaging.
peace.
As the last poster just mentioned, exit points are very important.
As simple as it sounds, making money is just buying low and sellig high. Of course, the order of each is up to you (i.e. short and buy low).
Here is one of a zillion examples:
Take WFR on Friday, Jan 26, 2007.
Say Joe watches the stock gap up and soar and decides its a great buy and buys at 51.00/share at 9:40 am.
Say Fred is sitting next to Joe and sees he just bought WFR but Fred says he is going to wait for a pullback before buying. Sure enough, WFR drops immediately from 51 all the way down to about 49.50. Fred jumps in at 49.50 and feels like he made a great buy because he just got it for 1.50/share less than his buddy Joe.
So Joe and Fred sit there watching WFR bounce along.
Joe still feels he made a good stock pick and is content to hold on.
Fred on the other hand is very nervous about his trade and sets a stop loss @ 49.20 figuring he got in at a very low price and if it drops down to 49.20 he is cutting out fast before he loses his shirt.
Sure enough, WFR drops past the 49.20 level at about 10:35am and Fred's stop is executed.
Fred tells Joe he better get out and take his 1.80/share loss or lose even more. Joe says "no way, I am not selling for this big a loss, besides I think its a great deal at this price", and Joe doubles up his position.
Fred tells Joe he is sending good money after bad and is an idiot.
Sure enough, WFR heads back up again, and Joe sells off at 3:55 for a tidy sum profit!
This is just one stock on one day. There are literally a zillion other possible scenarios out there.
As you can see from my little story, there are many ways to trade the same stock and make money.
I am sure folks were shorting WFR on Friday and making money, as well as folks being long. As a novice you would say it is impossible for one guy to be long and another being short to make money on the same stock in the same day.
You might also say "how is it possible for a guy to buy a stock at 51 and make money the same day a guy who bought it at 49.50 and lost money."
One last thing to think about: You may or may not have read or heard that the one proven investing strategy is dollar cost averaging.
peace.
Very nice example of two totally different people. In my opinion, Fred is more cut out to be a trader than Joe because Fred reacts to whats happening rather than hoping/praying/wishing. Joe just got lucky. No skill and no risk management.
About the dollar cost averaging point: Notice how you accurately defined it as a proven "investing" strategy. Day traders who dollar cost average into losers are setting up for annihilation. I see this happen time and time again. I even saw one example on friday with a cfc trader.