If markets were random why then does volatiliy spike at certains of the day (illustration inside)

[themickey]

Okay, so i'm not sure what you just said.

"Price exists of tiny micro decisions on micro timeframe" ? I think price exists everywhere, on every period, with decisions based on strategies across the board. but ok, leave that be atm.

Let me ask you this: Do you think it's possible for SP500 to trade at 1 and 6400 within the next, say, 24 hours, 1 hour, 1min ? I don't think you do. So, how can prices be random, if you already KNOW that certain things are NOT possible ?

or you think that randomness is defined by the idea that you need to know what the next TICK is going to be ?

So, your problem is really in your inability to define or understand randomness in the first place.

Using your logic, if dust is bouncing around its not random, because for it to be random it needs to bounce several miles at a time or be bouncing into outer space.
No, random can mean moving a milimetre if needs be or less.
(Volpri would say bouncing dust is not random as every movement is known and has a purpose LMAO )

 

[userque]

This should help:

What's the definition of 'random?'

 

[tsfx]

Using your logic, if dust is bouncing around its not random, because for it to be random it needs to bounce several miles at a time or be bouncing into outer space.
No, random can mean moving a milimetre if needs be or less.

I'm just giving "distant" examples to see if you are actually capable of thinking in the right direction.

 

[themickey]

..... to see if you are actually capable of thinking in the right direction.

Give me a break! Ffs.

 

[themickey]

No one knows where the next price will land "and its not random". Geezus.

 

[themickey]

Trading is like herding cats.

 

[tsfx]

No one knows where the next price will land "and its not random". Geezus.

do u have to know where the next price tick lands?

 

[Laissez Faire]

If a direction of the market is certain, then, no one is going to take the opposite side of the transaction.....UNTIL THE DIRECTION IS NO LONGER CERTAIN.

Exactly.

There are many players in the market who do not care about direction.

Your entry on a day trade long may offset the hedge of the portfolio of another player or the exit of a profitable long term trade.

 

[tsfx]

There are many players in the market who do not care about direction.

Your entry on a day trade long may offset the hedge of the portfolio of another player or the exit of a profitable long term trade.

Your statement only proves the point. It's not only the direction that matters, it's the trade desire. Market cares about matching buyers against sellers, motives aren't only directional ofc.

Exit of a long term profitable trade IS (was) directional, btw.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Your statement only proves the point. It's not only the direction that matters, it's the trade desire. Market cares about matching buyers against sellers, motives aren't only directional ofc.

I may have missed the point.

Exit of a long term profitable trade IS (was) directional, btw.

Yes. But the player exiting may not have an opinion about future direction following his exit.