If markets were random why then does volatiliy spike at certains of the day (illustration inside)

[piezoe]

I think when someone states that markets are random...

I think when someone states markets are random they don't know what that means, and no one else does either.

 

[SunTrader]

Just like market volatility ebbs and flows, randomness and predictable each ebb and flow.

"Timing is everything".

 

[tiddlywinks]

Just like market volatility ebbs and flows, randomness and predictable each ebb and flow.

"Timing is everything".

Non-predictable and random are two different things. Just want to point that out.

 

[SunTrader]

Non-predictable and random are two different things. Just want to point that out.

Ok make it random and non-random.

 

[tsfx]

Then that is something that is NOT random.

I'm pretty sure your definition of randomness is...well...misleading. Markets would look a whole lot different if they were

Go on, try to define it.

 

[Heydrrich]

I'm pretty sure your definition of randomness is...well...misleading. Markets would look a whole lot different if they were

Go on, try to define it.

Price is random because it exist of tiny tiny micro decisions on a micro level timeframe ( possibly infinite) and each one of the microdecisions has a slighty better than 50/50 chance of happening. If you add those all up, you cannot know what is going to happen, the longer your prediction takes place.

 

[wrbtrader]

Price is random because it exist of tiny tiny micro decisions on a micro level timeframe ( possibly infinite) and each one of the microdecisions has a slighty better than 50/50 chance of happening. If you add those all up, you cannot know what is going to happen, the longer your prediction takes place.

You can...if you want...ignore the low probability trade opportunities and instead trade the higher probability trade opportunities that appear within the duration you've shown in your initial graph that you've determine increases your "chance" for a successful trade.

Let what you know about the volatility guide you...it will help navigate you around a lot of obstacles in trading.

wrbtrader

 

[SunTrader]

Price is random because it exist of tiny tiny micro decisions on a micro level timeframe ( possibly infinite) and each one of the microdecisions has a slighty better than 50/50 chance of happening. If you add those all up, you cannot know what is going to happen, the longer your prediction takes place.

Except the decision made in each of those so-called microdecisions are not random.

 

[Heydrrich]

Except the decision made in each of those so-called microdecisions are not random.

Well I think it depends how you structure your trade. If you take on the smallest possible unit; and have the smallest possible SL/PT, it should not be far off 50/50.

 

[SunTrader]

Well I think it depends how you structure your trade. If you take on the smallest possible unit; and have the smallest possible SL/PT, it should not be far off 50/50.

That wasn't my point.