If market is forward looking, why does it ever go down?

Sig said:
Twenty years ago was the height of the .com boom. The Semiconductor Manufacturing Index reflected on the fortunes of a significant percentage of the market by market cap because we were in a huge bubble of tech companies so they made up an outsized part of the total market's market cap. The .com crash happened, all that .com market cap disappeared and the relative impact of that index to the market as a whole declined significantly so it stopped having an outsized impact on the market. Just math really, no "powers" or any other crazy nefarious tinfoil hat BS, sorry.
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Doublclick.com click it doubles. Who remember this?
 
Sig said:
Twenty years ago was the height of the .com boom. The Semiconductor Manufacturing Index reflected on the fortunes of a significant percentage of the market by market cap because we were in a huge bubble of tech companies so they made up an outsized part of the total market's market cap. The .com crash happened, all that .com market cap disappeared and the relative impact of that index to the market as a whole declined significantly so it stopped having an outsized impact on the market. Just math really, no "powers" or any other crazy nefarious tinfoil hat BS, sorry.
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The moral of the story is wall street controls what we obsess on. Wether it's interest rates ,strong weak $,or whatever ever the hell they want there lap dogs to think about. If you disagree with that your in denial la la land land.
 
hafez50 said:
The moral of the story is wall street controls what we obsess on. Wether it's interest rates ,strong weak $,or whatever ever the hell they want there lap dogs to think about. If you disagree with that your in denial la la land land.
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OK let me tell the story to be short:
Long ago one bossman wanted buy xyz he sought it will up. He ordered it to buy and buy and buy till it got green.
Moral: yes they may control it till it’s as big they can not.
Not always but they may.
 
MK020 said:
From what I've read investors are looking past 2020 and instead pricing stocks based on what they think future performance can be over a year from now. But why is there a limit to how forward looking investors are willing to be? Whether there's a V-shaped recovery or U-shaped recovery, the market eventually goes back to where it was. People are OK looking past 1 year, but not 2 years? Not 5 years? I don't fully understand.
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Many people do look past 1 year, 2 years, 5 years and even 10 years via many different ways involving the markets.

Yeah, no matter how deep the decline nor the crash...the market eventually goes back to where it was and plus that. Yet, not all stocks do that and that's the problem...not everybody is rewarded with their long term investments.

Some actually lose money or lose it all on their investments.

wrbtrader
 
1957may10 said:
Me too, very seldom, have not enough time and partners too. Was playing chess on the beach.
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Most won't play me because I'll win, but the point of chess isn't win or lose, it's playing it, most haven't got the patience to sit there and wait 20mins for a move, only 1 mate got this years back, hours sitting in silence, good times!!
 
Turveyd said:
Most won't play me because I'll win, but the point of chess isn't win or lose, it's playing it, most haven't got the patience to sit there and wait 20mins for a move, only 1 mate got this years back, hours sitting in silence, good times!!
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Yeah, not this time. My kids hardly know the rules.
 
Turveyd said:
Most won't play me because I'll win, !
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Pfff.... I'll buy the f'n plane ticket Turv.

Sig said:
we were in a huge bubble of tech companies so they made up an outsized part of the total market's market cap.
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Stock Market Warning: 6 Mega Stocks Dominate S&P 500’s $21.4 Trillion Cap
Published: April 27, 2020 5:27 AM UTC

The stock market is looking like the Dot Com Bubble again, with market cap super concentrated in five companies. But this time it's worse.


The S&P 500 is dangerously lopsided, with 6 massive stocks making up for 25% of the index's entire market cap.| Source: Johannes EISELE / AFP)

  • Just six stocks make up 25% of the S&P 500’s market cap. That means stock market investors are vulnerable to risk-off action.
  • It’s far worse than the top five market cap concentration during the Dot Com Bubble. It also shows the equities rally isn’t very robust.
  • In Feb, Goldman Sachs’ David Kostin said it’s fine as long as these firms meet growth expectations. Then coronavirus happened.
The stock market is exhibiting the same telling sign that preceded the 2000 Dot Com crash. Only it’s much worse today. Six mega-cap stocks make up 25% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization. In other words, the stock market is vulnerable to a lack of diversification.

Of the S&P 500’s total market cap of $21.4 trillion after markets closed Friday, $5.377 trillion belongs to six companies. Those companies are all Silicon Valley tech firms in one sector: Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google, and Microsoft.

  • Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) Market Cap – $0.541T
  • Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) Market Cap – $1.2T
  • Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) Market Cap – $1.24T
  • Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) Market Cap – $0.187T
  • Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Market Cap – $0.879T
  • Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) Market Cap – $1.33T
FAANGM Total Market Cap – $5.377 trillion
 
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