If IBM disappoints today...

[S2007S]

Quote from thehangingman:

This scenario has taken place in 2005 and in 2006.

The Nasdaq gets pounded the first 3-6 months and then there are always those guys who insist on buying the dips. For the last 3 years, there are always those who believe to buy on the dips the start of the year.

Sometimes you can make the most money by simply not trading and waiting until the downturn comes. Sure, it might take a few months, maybe even 6 months, but those stocks that are trashed out will most likely rise up again in the second part of the year.

There will be many shorting opportunities, but my sincere belief is that shorting is best left for the pros at the hedge funds and not done with my funds.

Sit out the first 6 months and then trade the last 6 months. I find that to be a safe and money making scenario.

I can recall most of the last dips, especially the nasty one we had in June/July. If there is a dip of 7% or 9% I will certainly be buying it, I have seen in the past too many times a dip that was hard to go long on, turn into just the GREATEST buying opportunities.

 

[ByLoSellHi]

Quote from S2007S:

I can recall most of the last dips, especially the nasty one we had in June/July. If there is a dip of 7% or 9% I will certainly be buying it, I have seen in the past too many times a dip that was hard to go long on, turn into just the GREATEST buying opportunities.

As long as fundamentals, psychology and macroeconomic conditions are favorable, I agree.

You wouldn't want to dip buy amidst deteriorating fundamentals, though.

 

[S2007S]

Quote from ByLoSellHi:

As long as fundamentals, psychology and macroeconomic conditions are favorable, I agree.

You wouldn't want to dip buy amidst deteriorating fundamentals, though.

Thats the thing though, rewind back to June and July of 2006, I was going long nearly every sector ETF and every single time I did I was nearly selling for a loss due to the constant sell offs. It was like a never ending drop. Everyone thought at that time that there were deteriorating fundamentals with high inflation, gas above 3 bucks a gallon and 70+ a barrel. On top of that recession talks and a housing collapse.


By mid July everyone forgot about that and of course by the end of 2006 most markets were sitting on double digit gains for the year.

 

[Mvic]

If there is a sell off (looking for 5-7%) then scale back to the weeekly chart and wait until you see a volume spike followed by a snap back from the lows in the CCI. Then it is a good bet that the dip can be bought. To say that bottoms were easier to call than tops would be a huge understatement.

 

[ByLoSellHi]

Quote from S2007S:

Thats the thing though, rewind back to June and July of 2006, I was going long nearly every sector ETF and every single time I did I was nearly selling for a loss due to the constant sell offs. It was like a never ending drop. Everyone thought at that time that there were deteriorating fundamentals with high inflation, gas above 3 bucks a gallon and 70+ a barrel. On top of that recession talks and a housing collapse.


By mid July everyone forgot about that and of course by the end of 2006 most markets were sitting on double digit gains for the year.

That's true. Psychology was negative, and people were freaked about gas prices and inflation.

I think employment and real wage growth is the ultimate benchmark. If that foundation remains healthy, other aspects can be minimized.