If I think AAPL is going to 100 by Feb. end, whats the best options play?

Verbot, I have no idea where AAPL is going. Hope I didn't give the impression it would be pinned at 100 or any other number. That stock is as wild as any.

The $100 as the middle was in response to the title of the thread. While I haven't looked up the numbers for the 95/100/105, that sure sounds pretty narrow to me.

Bob
 
Scrapples recent "headless horseman" that got formed on earnings news says...not too likely

but thats my opinion, (just like buttholes, everybody"s got 1 and they think everybody elses stinks) thats what makes markets.
 
Here's a follow up to my posting yesterday where I mentioned the March 90/100/110 Call Fly. At the time I said the debit would be around $1.80, but if AAPL went down one might be able to shave 10 or 15 cents off the price.

For the record, I filled this order to open this morning. Net debit before commissions: $1.60. If AAPL hits $100 any time between now and March expiration I would put in an exit order immediately.

I never know what AAPL is going to do. Probably nobody else does either. Anyway, thought you would find this interesting.

Bob
 
I just looked at the chain for AAPL Feb 90C...bid 1.05; ask 1.10, delta in the .27 range. Two questions:

1. Can you share with us your reasons for concluding that the stock is greatly oversold?

2. What is your exit strategy?

I have no opinion regarding either 1 or 2, above. Just curious.

Good luck.

Bob
 
Quote from dchang0:

Just be sure to watch out for options roll-forward, which usually causes the price of both calls and puts to drop dramatically.
More...
I'm not sure I know what this means. People generally do not roll options from month to month, they'd get eaten alive in theta. You're thinking futures, when someone rolls from one contract expiration to the next.

I've never seen an IV drop immediately before expiration due to a "roll forward". If there were such a thing, you should be buying the overly cheap options.

If you have evidence and examples that this occurs, I'd love to see it.
 
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