if everyone loses money, why not do the opposite?

[padutrader]

people lose money because they do not know what they are doing.....if THEY do not know, how are you going to find out what they are doing
If you can find that out then and only then you can do opposite and why bother because what will you do if he blows his account,stops trading, and becomes Trump's financial advisor?

why bother: figure out what the market is doing

 

[padutrader]

3 equal tops on 3 bars can be a triple top

double top and triple tops are signs of countertrend strength because if the trend traders were strong there would have been a lower high. there will be a move away from the double top but i always fade it.
see most double tops are broken eventually

 

[padutrader]

ok - this might help.. look at my 'trading is easy' thread.... refers to the fxcm sentiment I use a lot... yes you need to do the opposite of what most do, because in this game guys at the top of the pyramid feed off the bigger dumber crowd at bottom, so retail sentiment is an excellent indicator.

how do you know what is the bottom?

normal market 90% of the time moves both ways so for half the time it is going opposite to sentiment.
sentiment may be longer term driver and extreme sentiment may indicate turning points but just what is extreme sentiment?
An extreme sentiment how do you judge it ? i have seen it become even more extreme.

trading public information, such as volume sentiment, common technical analysis,even commonly known fundamentals,do not give you any edge,and makes you a sitting duck for an institution.

 

[1a2b3cppp]

Based on what you've said, you don't need to hire anyone. You just need to have a basic charting package that has VWAP and then start testing distance from VWAP as entry points. You can test it manually with your own eyes and acquire the information you are seeking. If you simply treat each entrance as a different trade (while averaging in) you will develop stats on them. The stats will let you know if you can avoid entering on the first signal and take only the 2nd or 3rd entrance signal or if you need to take the first signal because price rarely goes to the 2nd or 3rd level.

 

[1a2b3cppp]

Took a look at last weeks PA on a 5 minute basis.

Monday there was one trade that if you timed it perfect you made a whole big 1.75 pts.
Tuesday 1st trade made "perfectly" 2.50 pts, 2nd trade again "perfectly" 3.25 pts and 3rd 5.25 pts not bad.
Wednesday 1.25 pts
Thursday too late in the day to take.
Friday 1.25 pts lousy.

So what they says to me, granted very little time researching, it that although it might seem to be tradable it isn't IMO. Just another scalping type technique that without a large account plus exchange seat commission rates and co-located fast connection it's not worth the trouble.

 

[padutrader]

View attachment 188555

yes this may work Why?
because i dont have a clue what you are talking about : VWAP and standard deviation bars?

If i do not have a clue and i have been studying publicly known technical analysis for 25 years-meaning what ever is available FREE on the net........i suspect many people may not know either
but nowadays all edges are fleeting and your strategy has to allow for it.....maybe by taking profits a little or even lot earlier

 

[smallfil]

people lose money because they do not know what they are doing.....if THEY do not know, how are you going to find out what they are doing
If you can find that out then and only then you can do opposite and why bother because what will you do if he blows his account,stops trading, and becomes Trump's financial advisor?

why bother: figure out what the market is doing

You might know what you are doing, analyzed the stockchart thoroughly, got in at a precise entry point and still, your trade does not work and you end up losing monies! Now, what you do next is going to determine how it ends for you! 1) You hang on and suffer larger losses as a result, 2) Sell and take the small loss now, 3) Reverse your position and you could end up with a profit or another loss? Now, what do you do?

 

[El OchoCinco]

yes this may work Why?
because i dont have a clue what you are talking about : VWAP and standard deviation bars?

If i do not have a clue and i have been studying publicly known technical analysis for 25 years-meaning what ever is available FREE on the net........i suspect many people may not know either
but nowadays all edges are fleeting and your strategy has to allow for it.....maybe by taking profits a little or even lot earlier

Should take you 5 seconds to google VWAP for free on the internet,,,

 

[padutrader]

You might know what you are doing, analyzed the stockchart thoroughly, got in at a precise entry point

depends on your strategy...you cannot sell the top or buy the bottom..so every trader has to bear some pain/drawdown 99% of the time

 

[padutrader]

Should take you 5 seconds to google VWAP for free on the internet,,,

i am not going to chase every pretty girl there is out there
there are many strategies that work but do not suit me....i have one custom made, for me, by me.
Thanks for the suggestion