Who are you going to believe?
"A trading edge is the easiest thing?"
http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2478826#post2478826
If edge is hard to get, why traders keep trading?
- Thread starter OddTrader
- Start date
Who are you going to believe?
"A trading edge is the easiest thing?"
http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2478826#post2478826
so now we have an interesting phenomena -
I suppose most ETers have a sense that going to the casino and pulling the 1-arm-bandit is not a career. But because they don't know what they don't know (they don't have an edge), they passionately persue this trading thing as if it's a career, lol.
they keep pulling that lever, disciplined enough that they promised they will -
never put more than 4 coins in any 1 pull;
never continue playing if they have lost 100 coins for the day;
let the winner run and keep playing if they win 200 coins for the day;
have a written business plan about pulling the lever;
exercise everyday so they have a fresh mind when pulling the lever;
go to college to have the right degree to be better in pulling the lever;
The list goes on.
I suppose most ETers have a sense that going to the casino and pulling the 1-arm-bandit is not a career. But because they don't know what they don't know (they don't have an edge), they passionately persue this trading thing as if it's a career, lol.
they keep pulling that lever, disciplined enough that they promised they will -
never put more than 4 coins in any 1 pull;
never continue playing if they have lost 100 coins for the day;
let the winner run and keep playing if they win 200 coins for the day;
have a written business plan about pulling the lever;
exercise everyday so they have a fresh mind when pulling the lever;
go to college to have the right degree to be better in pulling the lever;
The list goes on.
The important discipline here is that unless no edge, you should keep trading simulated until it is found. Then and only then, is that cash should be used.
On the other hand, it goes without saying that it is much harder to apply in CASH what you found in the simulator.
....and in there lies paradox.
On the other hand, it goes without saying that it is much harder to apply in CASH what you found in the simulator.
....and in there lies paradox.
good point! you bring up an important issue, you need infinite or huge wealth, for some of this to work.
this again confirms that in trading, it REALLY PAYS to play, if you're ALREADY wealthy and/or rich. sorry, that's life . . .
i know it's sad, but i'd rather know the truth. it is great fun though, and, if you're good at it, maybe you can do fairly well. some poker players are pros, but it's not for everyone. you need the skills, and especially the right personality for that. a lot of them do other things in life too
here are some interesting graphs on lotteries.
r6.ca/blog/20090522T015739Z.html
that's where psychology kicks in. you really have to stay focused, and, above all, centered.
actualy, this was proven some years ago. A group of Ph.D. students were a given a "system" with a positive expectancy and over 90% lost all their money. I have seen this study crop up again and again.
Even with an edge, you need very disciplined money and trade management, or you still face a very high Risk of Ruin (RoR)
Such as, A 60-40 system, where the trader/gambler keeps double or nothing, will on average be out of $ in only 2 or 3 trades.
But the LUCK will be outmanned by RUIN.
