if 90% of traders are losers, then why would we care about IV?

[Dubai._.boy20]

first of all, i am a beginner, so don't go hard on me LOL. i started reading Natenberg Option Volatility & Pricing as i would to learn the reasons of concepts in options before jumping to strategies. it has been pretty clear and easy to understand. but i have this question in mind.

if Implied Volatility reflects what the market thinks about how the future Realized volatility will be, and statistics show that the vast majority of traders lose in trading, then why would i bother to know what they think about the future? like it doesn't make sense.

 

[Specterx]

Individual traders != the market.

As to why someone hoping to transact in a market would find it important/useful to know what that market is pricing… I dunno, do you take a job without knowing the salary?

 

[taowave]

Think about what you just said and let's ignore mean reversion..

If implied vol jumps to the 99th one year percentile,who/what is driving that??

And as you stated ,90 % of traders lose money,so what would that tell you about vol being in the 99th percentile??

first of all, i am a beginner, so don't go hard on me LOL. i started reading Natenberg Option Volatility & Pricing as i would to learn the reasons of concepts in options before jumping to strategies. it has been pretty clear and easy to understand. but i have this question in mind.

if Implied Volatility reflects what the market thinks about how the future Realized volatility will be, and statistics show that the vast majority of traders lose in trading, then why would i bother to know what they think about the future? like it doesn't make sense.

 

[schizo]

first of all, i am a beginner, so don't go hard on me LOL. i started reading Natenberg Option Volatility & Pricing as i would to learn the reasons of concepts in options before jumping to strategies. it has been pretty clear and easy to understand. but i have this question in mind.

if Implied Volatility reflects what the market thinks about how the future Realized volatility will be, and statistics show that the vast majority of traders lose in trading, then why would i bother to know what they think about the future? like it doesn't make sense.

It's normally called the 80-20 rule. But in our case, it is indeed closer to 90-10.

 

[David's faith]

According to the brokers I read the homepages through it is more like 75% of their clients beeing losers on average, not 90%. I think this myth never gets busted.

 

[tsfx]

According to the brokers I read the homepages through it is more like 75% of their clients beeing losers on average, not 90%. I think this myth never gets busted.

The inflow of new clients relative to the time the old ones are losing is distorting this statistic. In reality the losing number is like 99%. You think the broker will ever advertise this number though? Would scare all the bitches away.

 

[newwurldmn]

first of all, i am a beginner, so don't go hard on me LOL. i started reading Natenberg Option Volatility & Pricing as i would to learn the reasons of concepts in options before jumping to strategies. it has been pretty clear and easy to understand. but i have this question in mind.

if Implied Volatility reflects what the market thinks about how the future Realized volatility will be, and statistics show that the vast majority of traders lose in trading, then why would i bother to know what they think about the future? like it doesn't make sense.

90%+ of retail traders lose because they don't have an edge in predicting the future.

The markets are competitive and so implied values (whatever they are) will be pretty good at predicting the future (which is why so many people don't have an edge). But they aren't perfect at predicting the future, so some people can develop an edge.

Your post applies to all products, and my response applies to all products.

 

[stepandfetchit]

first of all, i am a beginner, so don't go hard on me LOL. i started reading Natenberg Option Volatility & Pricing as i would to learn the reasons of concepts in options before jumping to strategies. it has been pretty clear and easy to understand. but i have this question in mind.

if Implied Volatility reflects what the market thinks about how the future Realized volatility will be, and statistics show that the vast majority of traders lose in trading, then why would i bother to know what they think about the future? like it doesn't make sense.

IMHO: It is good to pose that question. Next, will be good to understand that "why would I bother" may require a bit more thought. Re-read Specterx's response for a bit of illumination. -- This topic has some moving parts (AKA: not trivial)

 

[smacdtrader]

That 20% that doesn't loose, controls most of the inventory, so ultimately, the smart money is still setting the price for the most part. Also, don't disregard the giant parallel computer that is the human mind, even if we don't know it, we are each part of a wise collective.

Finally, IV is a very tricky topic. I mean, the VIX is really the instrument that does what you're talking about. IV is a weird variable that was invented to cover up the fact that vol is not constant as was assumed by black-scholes. It's model specific for a model that does not work and doesn't really have anything to do with the real world. All IV is saying is that the B-S model spits out this number for volatility when the option is priced at X. It's a convention and ultimately not connected to reality.

 

[M.W.]

I believe the number is way higher than 75%. Every statistic and notes I came across don't account for burned accounts that drop out during measurement points. Most brokers just check signage at specified times and derive their percentages. Very inaccurate approach.

According to the brokers I read the homepages through it is more like 75% of their clients beeing losers on average, not 90%. I think this myth never gets busted.