If 80% lose why you think you can make it?

[axeman]

1) I LOVE it - and have unlimited drive and determination
2) Im a computer whiz
3) Im smart "enough", using many metrics
4) I've already proven to myself that I can find real tradeable edges in the markets.
5) I have guys like Acrary that inspire me
6) I have enough resources, time and $$$, I am not underfunded

peace

axeman

 

[WDGann]

1. I LOVE myself.
2. GOD LOVES me.
3. Everyone else doesn't give a F*CK about me.

The 3 are equally important. Yes, even #3...

 

[onewaypockets]

Quote from peterfigliozzi:



Same here. Someone put up an article on ET a few months back... I wish I could remember more of the details.. but the jist is this:

these folks did a study of trader's personalities. They looked for correlations between successful traders and personality traits. They found that most successful traders shared two traits:

(1) they are obsessive-compulsive rule followers
(2) they are conscientious people

They also found a correlation between losing traders and "intelligence", in that many times intelligence got in the way.

I think there are lots of intelligent folks who trade with a "prediction" paradigm rather than an "ambush" mentality. I also hear "every trade is statistically independent" and "random walk" a lot. All of these ideas, cornerstones of math, statistics, physics, and engineering, can get a trader into trouble.

Skills specific to one being a good or even great trader may be hard to nail down considering the range of the human personality.

I think that trader income (success) differences fall into normal patterns of distribution similar to some other occupations. With the important difference that traders, unlike most other occupations, can have negative income! Thus the horror stories about day trading.

Take the commissioned sales staff of a water bed showroom. They may have 10 sales guys divided up over different shifts to cover the store. You always have a top couple of guys that make the bigger six-figure income consistently and who could sell anything. The larger middle group that have some better months and slack months, and the bottom couple of guys that just don't have their heart in anything they do and eventually get cut.

Considering trading is self-employment, many personality types may not be compatible too. Thus compulsive people that follow their proven system and that have strong drive to be a self starter may do best.

 

[alfonso]

Quote from Gordon Gekko:


i have many reasons, but one is knowing i'm never going to quit and i (probably) have a lot of time on my side.

can anyone on this site really say i won't make it as a trader by the time i'm 55?

Yep, I'll say it. No brainer.

 

[Gordon Gekko]

Quote from daytraderpete:

My thoughts exactly, I look back on what I thought I knew a year ago, and can't believe what I didn't understand but thought I did. However it makes me excited to think where my trading will be a year from now.

yup, i totally agree. as frustrating as learning to trade is, i DO make progress. every 6 months or so i look back and realize that i've made major improvements. at the present moment you just don't know what the future ones will be...but they will happen if you keep at it.

 

[bobcathy1]

I had no fear of not making it when I started trading.
This is not my first business. I have had worse odds.

Gann, I feel sorry for you. Nothing to love but yourself and god?

Bob and I love each other more than we love ourselves.

 

[Grob109]

Quote from indahook:



I agree...but the most important ingredient in a profitable trading recipe is money management. Regardless of any supposed edge, your strategy will always have losers. A very un-sexy topic yet the most important one that most newbie traders ignore.

I thought his post was funny too.

Most people posting in this thread are saying similar stuff.

A recent post of his related to staying in a trade over night. I thought it was funny too. He proved that in a context of doubling margin (the diference between intraday and interday) there might possibly be a play that would work over night. His answer said exit, but the actual reason was not fully developed at all.

No one is trading today what they traded 10 years ago. No one will be trading 10 years from now what they currently trade.

In five years the edge business will be out of the picture. People today are seeing it fade. The author of the thread is making a small fraction of apoint aday if he is trading the ES. As a non compounded rule of thumb, a point a day on one contract makes you 250% a year using margin as the capital. 1/2 point is 125%; 44% in two years (skip flat last 6 months) turns out to be 1/10 of a point a day average over two years.

If a person still uses an edge approach to trading and he deems himself successful, say as this person does, you can see that almost no one makes money in futures trading. 1/10 of a point average a day is not success. The person cannot ever find this out, however. How could he? Not possible. So scratch all the people in this category as people who wioll learn to make money.

So what is in the cards to be a winner.

It is not brains.

Not discipline.

Not an edge.


Logic is what gets a person there. Logic does not work for anyone whose head is filled with myths and/or is mentally stuck. Baggage and garbage in the mind makes it opaque forever.

 

[Hawker]

Quote from bobcathy1:

I had no fear of not making it when I started trading.
This is not my first business. I have had worse odds.

Gann, I feel sorry for you. Nothing to love but yourself and god? Bob and I love each other more than we love ourselves.

Man !! Congrats for your new boat !!

 

[m&m&m]

Quote from Lobster:


And lastly, quite frankly, I am better educated than 95%, faster than 60%, wealthier than 50%, and depending on which test I take, more "intelligent" than 97% to 99.9% of all humans.

How about 10$ from 1000$ equals 0.1% ?

 

[TD80]

Totally agree. The problem is the intelligent/book smart person doesn't like to be wrong. I struggled with being wrong for a long time in trading, the mechanics of my methodology worked *most* of the time. There were setups that were textbook that would go wrong, and I kept my risk in check but the problem was that it would destroy my confidence. My thoughts were: my ingenius methodology fails on a textbook setup, something is wrong... the market is wrong... This is where things go waaay down hill, if you ever hear yourself saying "The market is wrong", it's time to either quit this business altogether, or take some time away from the market to regroup! Luckily I regrouped, and slowly started to accept I'm wrong all the damn time. I accept that things could change in the midst of the trade after I entered that would prevent it completing as planned. My biggest key to getting over this barrier was playing poker, years of hold'em. Once I was cleaning out everyone all over the place, I decided I was ready to return to the ring of the markets.

Goodluck,

Quote from onewaypockets:



Skills specific to one being a good or even great trader may be hard to nail down considering the range of the human personality.

I think that trader income (success) differences fall into normal patterns of distribution similar to some other occupations. With the important difference that traders, unlike most other occupations, can have negative income! Thus the horror stories about day trading.

Take the commissioned sales staff of a water bed showroom. They may have 10 sales guys divided up over different shifts to cover the store. You always have a top couple of guys that make the bigger six-figure income consistently and who could sell anything. The larger middle group that have some better months and slack months, and the bottom couple of guys that just don't have their heart in anything they do and eventually get cut.

Considering trading is self-employment, many personality types may not be compatible too. Thus compulsive people that follow their proven system and that have strong drive to be a self starter may do best.