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Idiots and Trend Following Threads (Chit-Chat)
- Thread starter bigbadbaz
- Start date
Quote from steve46:
Thanks Harold;
You make valid points. One has to decide how to handle these issues. I have not made up my mind just yet, but I will certainly consider your comment. I am never to proud to learn something new from my fellow man...
Best regards
Steve
OTOH, your first post was pretty much on the money, so . . .
LC
Quote from Thunderdog:
See, that's the problem I have with you, surf. You are perfectly comfortable speaking for everyone when you say, "...one can not determine with any odds greater than 50/50 just when to to enter a trade based on looking at past chart trends." How you are able to capture the entirety of human experience and potential with your proclamations is really quite astounding.
what i find astounding is your ability to determine the future by looking at past chart trends. trading is in the here and now prior to entry,not the past not the future. after entry, things change as directional movement, money management, et al, become important, prior to entry those things are simply hypothetical.
regards, surf
Quote from marketsurfer:
tests show the opposite. may i suggest larry connors book of studies " How markets really work" to clarify this to you. i really reccomend this book, it's available on amazon.
for example-- returns actually increase after consecutive days of delines and decrease following consecutive days of market gains.
what studies are you familiar with that support your contention?
best wishes,
surf
marketsurfer,
What timeframe do you trade? Average holding period?
thanks,
AAA30
You forgot one other little fun-filled fact. While it is true that existing trends only exist in the past and we have no way of knowing if they will continue or where they will cease, there are moments when pockets of momentum can be observed. There is no certainty associated with that observation. But, depending on how familiar you are with what you are looking for, there is a point where the "balance of probability" may be in you favor, at least from a historical perspective and for the next very, very short while. This is where you position yourself accordingly and prepare to hang on if the trend continues after your entry. It will never be no risk, but it can be fairly low risk. Those are the favored entry points.Quote from marketsurfer:
your misunderstanding. after the entry--direction is the only thing that matters. unfortunately, since trend only exists in the past, looking at it does one little good prior to entry. this is a fact.
regards, surf
True, it's not as good as having a crystal ball, but you work with what you have. For you, it's all or nothing. Or at least, you think it is with your 50/50 reference. However, if you could be right half the time, and catch ongoing trends, then you will be far ahead of the game if you manage your money appropriately. But why must you assume that all of human experience is at best limited to 50/50? Why do you measure the entire human population by your own yardstick? Why do you assume that if someone can do even better, that they would necessarily seek celebrity or academic recognition?
Let me be clear: I intensely dislike your across the board generalizations.
Quote from AAA30:
marketsurfer,
What timeframe do you trade? Average holding period?
thanks,
AAA30
presently longer term, but i have traded all time frames from actual arbitrage, to holding for months on end. i dont have an average holding period, but rather let the market and my capital/position sizing determine how long i can stay in. see surf report in journals for the current positions and strategy-- i have morphed into more of a speculator than trader in my evolution as a market participant.
thanks, surf
Determine? No. Make what I regard to be low-risk, "balance of probability" bets? Yes.Quote from marketsurfer:
what i find astounding is your ability to determine the future by looking at past chart trends...
Remember, "balance of probability" is not a mathematical level of confidence. It is an either/or thing. Those are the kinds of alternatives available in an environment of uncertainty, such as what the markets present. Numeric probabilities of future outcomes do not really exist insofar as the future is concerned. For that, you need a legitimate probability distribution. However, those only exist for the past in terms of the real world, or in purely mathematical games such as those offered in casinos.
Quote from Thunderdog:
You forgot one other little fun-filled fact. While it is true that existing trends only exist in the past and we have no way of knowing if they will continue or where they will cease, there are moments when pockets of momentum can be observed. There is no certainty associated with that observation. But, depending on how familiar you are with what you are looking for, there is a point where the "balance of probability" may be in you favor, at least from a historical perspective and for the next very, very short while. This is where you position yourself accordingly and prepare to hang on if the trend continues after your entry. It will never be no risk, but it can be fairly low risk. Those are the favored entry points.
True, it's not as good as having a crystal ball, but you work with what you have. For you, it's all or nothing. Or at least, you think it is with your 50/50 reference. However, if you could be right half the time, and catch ongoing trends, then you will be far ahead of the game if you manage your money appropriately. But why must you assume that all of human experience is at best limited to 50/50? Why do you measure the entire human population by your own yardstick? Why do you assume that if someone can do even better, that they would necessarily seek celebrity or academic recognition?
Let me be clear: I intensely dislike your across the board generalizations.
no doubt, you make some very limited sense, however you remain misguided and are missing the total picture. yes, by tape reading, one can see these pockets of momentum, jump on board and make coin. however, this is not from historical evaluation, its from watching the axe or other participants strategies PRIOR to their entries--- via open book or total view for instance. once the market moves, its TOO LATE. sorry.
Quote from steve46:
I'm back..
Alright everyone, the phrase for the day is
"Its a ruse goddamit"
You heard the man, everyone to their posts, lock & load
if you see even one ruse, or a herd of kangaruse, shoot to kill.
My grammatical indiscretions pale in comparison to the wanton charlatanism you've peddled here the past few years.
Leading those trusting souls into your parlour house with baited breath is beyond pale, Steve.