Identifying trend

[farmerjohn1324]

I am going to ask some questions that may seem elementary, but I feel it's best to ask them.

For now...

I mentioned previously about looking for a minimum slope to see a trend. But in addition to this, you can look at the same chart and stretch or shrink it vertically and the trend will look bigger or smaller. I will now post 3 pictures of the same chart, differing only by the amount I stretched it vertically.

Thoughts? Is there a "normal"?

 

[USDJPY]

https://www.investorvillage.com/Sea...ed&OrderDirection=DESC&RowIndex=0&PageSize=50

Check out this guy's posts for a fundamental perspective of the economy.

 

[padutrader]

Is there a "normal"?

yes
there is a normal.

the normal is you going to your business and conducting your buissiness

what you are doing in this site is abnormal.

i am not going to post in any of your threads.

if you want to know why PM me

i will reply to that PM,if it is born, on the week end when i am not trading

 

[murray t turtle]

I am going to ask some questions that may seem elementary, but I feel it's best to ask them.

For now...

I mentioned previously about looking for a minimum slope to see a trend. But in addition to this, you can look at the same chart and stretch or shrink it vertically and the trend will look bigger or smaller. I will now post 3 pictures of the same chart, differing only by the amount I stretched it vertically.

Thoughts? Is there a "normal"?

%%
Checking out your charts; on the pics/price readable right now. NO more chart clicks for now.Paul Tudor Jones said he avoids the meat of the middle., When that trend starts trending like MAR 2000,middle chart,think about tight stops + let the QQQ market take you out or keep trending. I like the open + middle+close myself.
Mainly position size it, like learning with 1 share of MSFT, or IBKR fractional share;n t something with huge bid ask, but top trender, like FNGU,or [SDOW= short trade+ i seldom do that one]may want to sell early, or avoid it. I tend to avoid stuff like FNGU , mostly.......................................................................................LOOK @ so much data , it slows you down reading all the data.SPY + UPRO........ are liquid like i like.............................................................................................................SPY had less drawdowns in 2000-2002 bear, than QQQ.ut anything can happen on 5 minute/NOISE chart

 

[easymon1]

3 pictures of the same chart, differing only by the amount I stretched it vertically.

rise over run remains the same, no?
https://www.coolmath.com/algebra/08-lines/05-finding-slope-line-from-graph-01

 

[tommcginnis]

A market "trend" is a human construct that is only available post hoc and as defined. Trends do not exist outside of this construct -- has you have shown in your posted charts.

The magic word here is pareidolia -- or making a resurgence, apophenia. There are some great sites/studies around on the web -- but simply having knowledge of the phenomenon is quite powerful (or, humbling!)...

https://explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/2048:_Curve-Fitting
At any rate, the post hoc calling of a trend is mostly a matter of convenience -- we do it all the time. (We *need* to, or else we'll be calling slope and time parameters all over the place. Sheeesh!) But as soon as you paint that trend going forward (as a fact, and not a convenient tactical assumption), you've committed pareidolia.

The worst is doing it post hoc...

 

[farmerjohn1324]

rise over run remains the same, no?

True if you looked at the numbers. But not by just eyeballing it.

 

[easymon1]

True if you looked at the numbers. But not by just eyeballing it.

what's your point?

 

[farmerjohn1324]

a market "trend" is a human construct that is only available post hoc and as defined. Trends do not exist outside of this construct -- has you have shown in your posted charts.

The magic word here is pareidolia -- or making a resurgence, apophenia. There are some great sites/studies around on the web -- but simply having knowledge of the phenomenon is quite powerful (or, humbling!)...

At any rate, the post hoc calling of a trend is mostly a matter of convenience -- we do it all the time. (We *need* to, or else we'll be calling slope and time parameters all over the place. Sheeesh!) But as soon as you paint that trend going forward (as a fact, and not a convenient tactical assumption), you've committed pareidolia.

https://explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/2048:_Curve-Fitting

Is this not sound logic...

EUR/USD has been going down consistently over the past 2 weeks. Therefore, it will continue to go down (based on the same forces causing it to go down) unless a greater force acts upon it.

?????

 

[farmerjohn1324]

what's your point?

Idk.

Then is there a minimum slope I should look for?