Ideas for struggling traders

For the YM contract I would go to B/E at plus 20 ticks

and I would test this and other management protocols as part of my backtest process.

There is one more issue we all have to struggle with and that is multiple entries presented once you are in a profitable trade.

With this type of system as price trends you will be offered additional entrys. Do you ignore them, add to your position, what? This is another part of the backtest process that one should not neglect especially if you are trying to automate a system.

Good luck
Steve
 
Quote from steve46:

For the YM contract I would go to B/E at plus 20 ticks

and I would test this and other management protocols as part of my backtest process.

Good luck
Steve
More...

Ok, thank you. +20 makes sense as I kept being stopped at +15. Once I can figure out a good way to code a "test" of MA, I will be able to backtest and figure the exact numbers. For now, I have to scale out at least half my posiion at T1 until I get the right stops in place. I see why you recommend 6-10 units minimum. Will see what happens tommorrow with better stops.

thanks
 
By the way I would like to thank everyone who took the time to look at the suggestions. This thread is only a few weeks old and has more than 15,000 views already.

The first chart has already been pulled up some 1200 times.

Its nice to see traders making use of the info.

Good luck in the markets

Steve
 
After having a good trades for most of last week, Friday's action was very confusing. When you have time, do you think you could post Fridays trades as you saw them. thanks.
 
Quote from fifo:

After having a good trades for most of last week, Friday's action was very confusing. When you have time, do you think you could post Fridays trades as you saw them. thanks.
More...

Last Friday was options expiration. I've been told it's a good day to take off and not trade (especially if you're a beginner like me!).

I haven't traded on options expiration day since I got killed on expiration day two months ago.
 
If you want to trade Options Expiry then I suggest you trade small and cautious.

On this first chart I show the open and first short entry.

First you should know that this first entry really is based on Market Profile more than anything else. In this case when the Market opens "out of Value" (in this case above previous value), what I do is to look for price to test that previous value high.

When the market opens, immediately you see that price does not want to test higher. Instead it drifts lower. As it does so, I watch the test of the 80 period (blue) MA and when it looks as though price is going to take it out. I enter short looking for a test of previous value area high at 1258.25

Short entries at either 1261 or 1260.50 were favorable, and you would be looking for price to test that previous value area high for a net profit of 2-3 points.

Notice that price "drops through" the previous value area high and takes out the longer MA (white) at 1257.75. In fact on this day price moves down to 1255.50 for a nice 5 point profit before retracing briefly. Because it does not even re-test the longer MA, we just let it run all the way down to 1252.50 for a nice 8 pointer.

On this trade I got 7 of 8 possible points and then got stopped out at 10:09:37 EST
 

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Here is a chart showing the stopout.

For me this is the single most difficult judgement to make. Whether to stay with a trade or get out before you make your 10.

In this instance I am looking at the overall strength of the market and from my point of view, it is choppy day. I hate this kind of action and once I get paid, I become very risk averse, looking to play defense rather than take a lot of chances.
 

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The next trade is a long entry.

I let price show me where it intends going.

notice that the shorter MA (blue) is above the longer (white)

At this point I am thinking about the following issues.

1. If I am a MM, I want price to move up. To the extent that price does make a move up, I will profit on the puts I have sold. In my experience that is often the motivation for insitutions to "mark a weak market up"

2. You can see the bid and asks line up and if you are watching the tape you might notice that some paper buyers are comming in here.

So I look to get long and the test of the blue 80 period MA is my reason to make a bet..

Long entry at 1258 goes well, and once I get a little breathing room I look for a nice impulse move up...

The Market gives me 2 points right away, before retracing to the entry. When it bounces back up, it tells me that the move "has legs" and this encourages me to hold for nice 5 pointer.

You can see the natural exit as price takes out the longer (white) MA and both the MA's start to turn south.

The exit is a re-test of previous day's value area high at 1258.25
 

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On the exit of the prior trade I am looking immediately for a retest of the MAs

As you can see, price does re-tests and we have a decision to make. Do we take the trade short on the failure candle or wait for a true touch of the longer MA?

I figure price even if price does touch, I will still have some wiggle on my stoploss (2 points). I already got paid today, so I am willing to spend a couple of dollars to see if I can get favorable entry.

Depending on your entry at 1258 or 1257.50 you would have an immediate 2 points and you would just hold looking for a test of the pivot at 1251.50 and thats exactly what happened. I believe I got 5 of the possible 6.5 points available on this trade.
 

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On this next trade we see a classic "peekaboo" move as locals try to trigger stops for a move down...When it doesn't happen, we immediatly look to get long on the next candle up.

Entry on the next candle at 1256.25 goes well, and I am looking for a move up to re-test previous day's value area high at 58.25

As you can see price did indeed re-test previous day's value area high and move up to 59.25 for a nice three point profit. The market turns back down and knocks me out....

On a day like this I am likely to get out at this point.

and as you can see from the next chart I missed a nice long setup
 

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