I'm struggling pleeeaaase help me ...
Ideas for struggling traders
- Thread starter steve46
- Start date
This last post shows an updated snap of how that last setup has worked out
As you can see it has turned into a nice profitable trade.
Even a struggling trader would still be long in here, looking for at least a 10 pointer.
Using the two point stop I recommend for this vol, and scaling out at 2, 3, 5, 7 and 10 you have a good risk/reward scenario
As you can see it has turned into a nice profitable trade.
Even a struggling trader would still be long in here, looking for at least a 10 pointer.
Using the two point stop I recommend for this vol, and scaling out at 2, 3, 5, 7 and 10 you have a good risk/reward scenario
The importance of "time of day" in trading
Time of day is very important in trading.
The best setups are those that occur early in the session
look at your charts and notice that price moves directionally early and then stops or "consolidates". This usually happens around lunch time (in New York). Then after the lunch hour ends, price will either resume its earlier directional movement or reverse.
As I have mentioned before, a good trader tries to keep a conceptual model in mind. The concept that works for me has to do with plain old human nature...
"The open" is where human beings express their optimism or pessimism about the market in a strong way...As the market opens, the first orders executed are the expressions of emotion from what I call the "retail public" or "mom & pop". This tells us what the "public" thinks about the direction of the market and the economy. About a half hour later, reports, earnings and other data are in the public doman, and what happens is that the institutional traders, banks and funds have had time to excute their strategies, and now we see a counterpoint to that first wave of emotion....then lunch
After the lunch hour, institutions and other profesionals come back to trade the markets. They look at the news, and the conditions of the current market and react by either
1. Resuming the mornings trend or
2. Reversing
and that depends (in my view) on what each participant views as "fair value" and what their time frame is (short term, medium or long term horizon).
I will have more to say about this later.
Steve
Time of day is very important in trading.
The best setups are those that occur early in the session
look at your charts and notice that price moves directionally early and then stops or "consolidates". This usually happens around lunch time (in New York). Then after the lunch hour ends, price will either resume its earlier directional movement or reverse.
As I have mentioned before, a good trader tries to keep a conceptual model in mind. The concept that works for me has to do with plain old human nature...
"The open" is where human beings express their optimism or pessimism about the market in a strong way...As the market opens, the first orders executed are the expressions of emotion from what I call the "retail public" or "mom & pop". This tells us what the "public" thinks about the direction of the market and the economy. About a half hour later, reports, earnings and other data are in the public doman, and what happens is that the institutional traders, banks and funds have had time to excute their strategies, and now we see a counterpoint to that first wave of emotion....then lunch
After the lunch hour, institutions and other profesionals come back to trade the markets. They look at the news, and the conditions of the current market and react by either
1. Resuming the mornings trend or
2. Reversing
and that depends (in my view) on what each participant views as "fair value" and what their time frame is (short term, medium or long term horizon).
I will have more to say about this later.
Steve
This will be my last chart for today
As you can see we have another test of the longer MA and this time the test coincides with a pivot. I try not to miss one of these setups even though this one is occuring later in the day.
Entry would have been at the open of the next bar at 1269.25
As I write this price has gone to a low of 1266.25. A trader on this trade would have had scale out profit opportunities at 2 and 3 points, and you would be looking for more as price tests the low of the day...
I hope this helps some of you.
Steve
As you can see we have another test of the longer MA and this time the test coincides with a pivot. I try not to miss one of these setups even though this one is occuring later in the day.
Entry would have been at the open of the next bar at 1269.25
As I write this price has gone to a low of 1266.25. A trader on this trade would have had scale out profit opportunities at 2 and 3 points, and you would be looking for more as price tests the low of the day...
I hope this helps some of you.
Steve
No more charts but one more entry
That last trade was entered at 1269.25 at 13:36:15 EST. I didn't stay on it (Doc's appointment) but if one had stayed with it to the end of the day, and you had something left to scale, your best scale out would have been at 1245.25 for 24 points.
For this reason, and others, I recommend that traders have a decently capitalized account to trade this market (at least 25k) and trade at least 10 units.
For struggling traders I think the best way to go is to look realistically at your situation. If you are trading part time and you have say 10-15k to work with, trade no more than 3 contracts, scale two out early and leave one to run.
In my opinion, if you don't have at least 10k to work with, and that means risk capital that you are willing to lose (and chalk it up to your education) then please stand aside until you have enough chips to sit at the table. While you're saving up, take the time to observe, to test and validate your system, and to practice your execution on a sim....
Hope this helps
Steve
That last trade was entered at 1269.25 at 13:36:15 EST. I didn't stay on it (Doc's appointment) but if one had stayed with it to the end of the day, and you had something left to scale, your best scale out would have been at 1245.25 for 24 points.
For this reason, and others, I recommend that traders have a decently capitalized account to trade this market (at least 25k) and trade at least 10 units.
For struggling traders I think the best way to go is to look realistically at your situation. If you are trading part time and you have say 10-15k to work with, trade no more than 3 contracts, scale two out early and leave one to run.
In my opinion, if you don't have at least 10k to work with, and that means risk capital that you are willing to lose (and chalk it up to your education) then please stand aside until you have enough chips to sit at the table. While you're saving up, take the time to observe, to test and validate your system, and to practice your execution on a sim....
Hope this helps
Steve
This is some of the most insightful comments I have seen on this site in a long time.
Quote from steve46:
The importance of "time of day" in trading
Time of day is very important in trading.
The best setups are those that occur early in the session
look at your charts and notice that price moves directionally early and then stops or "consolidates". This usually happens around lunch time (in New York). Then after the lunch hour ends, price will either resume its earlier directional movement or reverse.
As I have mentioned before, a good trader tries to keep a conceptual model in mind. The concept that works for me has to do with plain old human nature...
"The open" is where human beings express their optimism or pessimism about the market in a strong way...As the market opens, the first orders executed are the expressions of emotion from what I call the "retail public" or "mom & pop". This tells us what the "public" thinks about the direction of the market and the economy. About a half hour later, reports, earnings and other data are in the public doman, and what happens is that the institutional traders, banks and funds have had time to excute their strategies, and now we see a counterpoint to that first wave of emotion....then lunch
After the lunch hour, institutions and other profesionals come back to trade the markets. They look at the news, and the conditions of the current market and react by either
1. Resuming the mornings trend or
2. Reversing
and that depends (in my view) on what each participant views as "fair value" and what their time frame is (short term, medium or long term horizon).
I will have more to say about this later.
Steve
I think most new traders fail because they don't understand risk of ruin and money management.
Accounts in the small range 5-20 k are difficult to trade because the risk of ruin is high.
Many trading professionals advocating for risking less than 2% on any given trade. Given this fact someone trying to trade trend following strategies gets stopped out very quickly because they can't afford the drawdowns.
I advise small traders who like to find trends to look for trending markets and buy options for short term moves. They can know their risk and profit. The difficulty with this however is the returns are then proportioned to the risk taken and seem rather dull while theta can eat away at the value of the options.
Still though this makes to me much more sense than trying to time swing trades in the futures with no cash reserves to set real stops.
Accounts in the small range 5-20 k are difficult to trade because the risk of ruin is high.
Many trading professionals advocating for risking less than 2% on any given trade. Given this fact someone trying to trade trend following strategies gets stopped out very quickly because they can't afford the drawdowns.
I advise small traders who like to find trends to look for trending markets and buy options for short term moves. They can know their risk and profit. The difficulty with this however is the returns are then proportioned to the risk taken and seem rather dull while theta can eat away at the value of the options.
Still though this makes to me much more sense than trying to time swing trades in the futures with no cash reserves to set real stops.