Is it time for an old friend to make it back into the portfolio?--
Stifel ups GrowGeneration target to $40 after Southern California acquisition 13:38 GRWG Stifel analyst W. Andrew Carter raised the firm's price target on GrowGeneration to $40 from $38 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The analyst notes that GrowGeneration announced the acquisition of Grassroots Hydroponics, a three store hydroponics chain in Southern California with annual revenue approaching $20M. Carter believes terms were relatively in-line with historic acquisitions suggesting less than $10M in total consideration with cash and equity. GrowGeneration continues to outline a robust M&A pipeline with over $700M in annual revenue, sporting an increasing competitive advantage while executing its ongoing roll-up strategy.
Lets crunch some numbers Stoney.
Feel free to jump in here at any time.
$700M in revenue, "outlined going forward".
Ok.
Allow me to make a point brother GBA.
Lets take a well run retail operation like Target.
Gross margins are about 30%. Their net operating margin after all the bills and taxes are paid is about 4.3%.
Now lets give GrowGen some slightly fatter margins. Albeit their net is still in the red, and I suspect will be for several years.
So $700M in revenue and lets say a few years out... (and I'm being generous).... they can streamline this thing well enough to match Targets efficiencies. We'll give them 4%.
So $28M (roughly) in profit.
Currently there are 49 Million shares out. $35/share.
That puts a value on the company of $1.715B
You like to keep things simple right? I do.
Lets slide the decimal points to the left a few digits to make a point.
We have $28,000,000 and 1,715,000,000.
So lets shift the decimal to the left 6 places.
Now I ask you.... if your kid came to you and wanted to buy a lemonade stand that made
$28/year in profit, and asked you to front him
$1715 to buy it.... what would you say?
What would Warren say?
What would Peter Lynch say?
I guess it doesn't matter.... because with stocks all that matters is what folks that don't know any better will pay.
GrowGen is NOT a software as a service company. They are retail and growing revenue by buying up existing mom and pop stores.
Its story stock Stoney, run by some very bright people that know this game quite well.
Whatever.
Just thought I'd point that out.
I'm sure it will double from here.
