-GOOD NEWS BAD NEWS-
i Phone 12's must be selling well because Apple has had to put parts rom crappy i pads into them! & shortage of power chips....
Iron Mountain gets no respect. They are old school they store your paper records in deep dark caves... they have always had a 6% yield but the price fluxuates between $26 & $28 nothing more. Now the truth is the Co has moved into groovy data warehouses & that cloud crap but for most Iron Mountain will always be the place that old court cases and UFO sightings go to be packed away along with corporate records and whatever else still creates paper in this society.
Iron Mountain reports Q3 adjusted EPS 31c, consensus 25c 06:10 IRM Reports Q3 revenue $1.04B, consensus $997.16M.
I have nothing to sell you yet but my stock price is $200+
Piper says Mirati now 'prime' biotech takeout candidate, boosts target 05:02 MRTX Piper Sandler analyst Tyler Van Buren raised the firm's price target on Mirati Therapeutics to $260 from $210 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The stock closed Wednesday up 6% to $234.68. Mirati shares are trading like the company is going to be acquired, and "rightfully so" as adagrasib appears to be the best-in-class KRAS G12C, Van Buren tells investors in a research note. The analyst has a high level of confidence in adagrasib's approvability and its potential to take a "majority share" of the $5B-plus KRAS G12C market. Most large pharma companies that play in the solid tumor/targeted oncology area are interested in an asset like adagrasib and an acquisition "could come in the very near future," says Van Buren. He thinks Mirati Therapeutics has become the "prime biotech takeout candidate."
I Found An Article That Supports My View on BCRX a baby bio that has been in the Ideas For Now account since about page 10.
Long Ideas|
Healthcare
Summary
Recent Japan PAFSC Review clearance and UK early access for Berotralstat should portend a positive result for December 3rd US PDUFA. <------VAN
BCRX has an institutional hold of around 90%.
There is a 38 million share short position.<-----VAN
Institutions own 90% of the float.
Galidesivir, BioCryst's government-funded antiviral, qualifies for approval under Animal Rule.
Berotralstat Recent Development
BioCryst(NASDAQ:
BCRX)develops novel, oral and small molecules that inhibit enzymes that play a key role in biological pathways of rare diseases. With the
Japan PAFSC Reviewclearance and UK early access for Berotralstat for the treatment of Hereditary Angioedema (HAE), BioCryst is in a position to finally cash in on 20-plus years of R&D. Berotralstat (commercially called Orladeyo) is an oral, once-daily, small molecule kallikrein inhibitor positioned to capture a significant share
of a $1.5 billion market. This market is expected to grow to $5.8 billion by 2025. This market is currently dominated by Takeda(NYSE:
TAK)and CSL Behring LLC which offer preventive and rescue therapies. These therapies require intravenous or subcutaneous administration which is highly invasive and time consuming. The HAE market is clambering for an oral solution, and Orladeyo is here to fill that void. The current solutions cost approximately $600k per year, and BioCryst is hinting it will charge $500k per year for its daily oral pill. The US PDUFA for Orladeyo is scheduled for December 3rd. After the recent Japanese and UK events, it would be hard to believe Orladeyo will not be available in the US soon. BioCryst has already hired a highly experienced 16-person salesforce to sell Orladeyo and is expecting revenues to be generated as early as the fourth quarter.
With at least five major catalysts in the next eight weeks, we could be looking at quite a short squeeze.
Recent events-INSIDER BUY
While BioCryst the stock has been struggling in the market, BioCryst the company has accomplished several significant milestones. There must be a reason why the firm's CFO recently spent half his yearly salary
buying 50k shares of BCRX on the open market at $4.08 per share.According to the recent investor presentation:
Other Factors
Galidesivir
- The Covid-19 monkey trial data is due in Q4. Phase I Brazilian trial for Covid-19 is due Q4. (I have been waiting soooo long)
- BCX9930 Oral Factor Dfor Covid-19.
- The 200/400 Cohort 2 data for PNH is due in Q4.
CX9250
The Fibrodysplasia Ossificans Progressiva (FOP) Phase 1 data is due Q4.
Rapivab
There is the possibility for future government stockpiling for seasonal influenza.
The Pipeline
Berotralstat
Berotralstat (Orladeyo) is a revolutionary treatment for Hereditary Angioedema (HAE).
BioCryst's lead compound, Orladeyo, is designed to be an oral once-daily capsule that prevents HAE attacks. This drug targets a disease that currently is treated by injectables costing approximately $500-600k a year. BioCryst estimates Orladeyo will cost $500,000 per year. HAE is currently a $1.5 billion market and is expected to grow to $5.8 billion by 2025.
Galidesivir
This nucleotide RNA polymerase inhibitor disrupts the viral replication process and has the potential to treat multiple viral threats. NIAID is currently testing Galidesivir for treating Covid-19 and Yellow Fever. Galidesivir was safe and generally well-tolerated in a Phase 1 clinical human trial. Galidesivir demonstrated survival benefits in animal studies against a variety of serious pathogens, including Ebola, Marburg, Yellow Fever and Zika viruses. Galidesivir demonstrated broad spectrum activity in vitro against more than 20 ribonucleic acid (RNA) viruses of nine different families, including
coronaviruses, filoviruses, toga viruses, bunya viruses, arenaviruses, and flaviviruses.
In 2013, NIAID contracted BioCryst to develop Galidesivir against a broad spectrum of viruses. Then, in 2015, the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) issued BioCryst a contract to develop Galidesivir against possible bio attacks. Galidesivir qualifies for approval under the Animal Rule. The Recent $44 million contract is geared towards producing a possible oral antiviral for Covid-19. Galidesivir is finishing animal trials for Covid-19 while simultaneously finishing up Phase 1 dosing trial in Brazil. Both these trials should have results released in Q4.
BCX9930 - Oral D Factor
BioCryst management refers to Oral D Factor as a pipeline in a molecule. The recently completed Phase 1 study treating PNH produced encouraging data for this indication. The Phase 1 data while early clearly shows BCX9930 a serious player in the Factor D market. This market is valued at $10 billion-plus. BCX9930 has Orphan Drug Disease status and has been designated fast track status as well. BioCryst will be meeting with the regulators in the fourth quarter discussing advanced development programs for multiple indications. The company plans multiple advanced development clinical trials, for multiple indications, in the first quarter of 2021. Factor D markets include:
- PNH paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria
- Atypical hemolytic uremic syndrome
- Glomerulonephritis PNM primary membranous nephropathy
- Vasculitis antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated vasculitis
- Lupus nephritis
BCX9250 - Oral ALK-2 inhibitor
BioCryst with BCX9250 is pursuing activin receptor-like kinase-2 (ALK2) inhibition in the race to stop fibrodysplasia ossificans progressiva. BCX9250 has Phase 1 data due in the fourth quarter.
Rapivab (peramivir injection)<----
Rapivab is approved for the treatment for the flu. BioCryst
recently sold the US government $7 million worth of stockpiles. Rapivab is approved in many countries.
Galidesivir-Galidesivir could easily be worth $2-6 billion with the right approval.) ) ) )
Berotralstat
Berotralstat has Japanese approval and was designated UK early access. US approval should follow in the next two months. Being the only oral treatment for PNH, Berotralstat could easily gain 30-50 percent market share of a current $1.5 billion market. This market is anticipated to grow to $
5.8 billionby 2025. Berotralstat could have sales of $300 million to $1 billion and easily garner a multiple of 4-6 times sales. T
his would be $1.2 billion on the low side to $6 billion on the high side.
BCX9930 Oral Factor D
BCX9930 is potentially the most valuable asset in BioCryst's pipeline. BCX9930 has Orphan Drug and fast track approval for PNH.
Developing a successful Oral D Factor drug will create revenue in eight or nine very valuable markets.
The Conclusion
It's one thing to short 22% of the float in a biotech stock hemorrhaging money, but is kamikaze insane to be caught in this position in BCRX. BioCryst is within a quarter of potentially producing hundreds of millions in yearly revenues.
Institutions have quietly acquired over 90 percent of all the shares outstating in BCRX, leaving an actual float, outside of institutional holdings, of
17 million shares at the most. Say institutions believe the stock is worth 30 or 40 dollars a share,
where do the shorts find 38 million shares to cover this position.