Ideas For Now-

stonedinvestor said:
Van I have a 4+% mortgage & a good portion of the monthly vic is going towards principle at this point... which i like//I'm like 14 years into a 30.... Is it worth it to refinance?
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If you have the cashflow and can handle a slight bump in the payment, refi it with a 10 year conventional fixed rate loan, you'll get the best rate and pay it off a lot sooner.

You better hurry though, Freddie and Fannie are going to tack on a 50 basis point fee starting Dec. 1 on all refi's. .5%

https://www.housingwire.com/articles/fhfa-delays-refinance-fee-start-date-to-dec-1/
 
Yes I think I may try this refi -- The problem is I pay over $4K a month now so I want that to go down not up. & I want to keep the high percentage going towards principle not interest. I think because it's a jumbo loan Freddi and Fanny rules will not come into play. If I could go down to $3K a month AND shorten the time frame it would be interesting...

I am starting to get a weird feeling. I think we have reached that point I have mused about when a second wave of more white color unemployment is happening. The rebound off the lows is now over and we enter a longer struggle.

What does this mean for our stocks? That is a very good question. I may sell some winners today.

I am torn because the other day I was struck by how happy I was that i sold all those stocks along the way and banked that $. Whenever I have that happy feel good about myself feeling for selling-- The market turns up which it did for a few days. So correction over right?

K hole dip coming i fear.... I heard " K " used as the letter that could describe this recovery, I don't understand that at all. A K is a straight line down and then we come half way back and then a splitting of directions one line up (tech) and one line down (energy).

W would seem the better choice. STILL CHANGE IS IN THE AIR... Is it a melt up or a melt down... one way or another a melt seems on the plate. ~si
 
The William Hill takeover by Caesars is very complex. On the face of it Caesars stole the company. They used their leverage of having US operations which they could pull from WH to make them sign by gun. Now they will auction off the UK assets of WH and Caesars will pocket $2 Billion cash. So the winner here is Caesars.- The stock I sold!

Management is doing everything right! And there's a bit of a rumor building that when the dust settles Caesars plans to take it's online division- couple it with WH and IPO- a Draftkings like model...

Now all of that good news we must weigh against-- I think this whole sector is ABOUT TO GO DOWN! Got that hunch Van I think you should short PENN<------
 
'Considerable contraction' coming to Penn National shares, Deutsche says
Penn National Gaming shares have benefited from the "retail community turning the ticker into an internet meme of sorts," thereby creating momentum in the stock, Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli tells investors in a research note. A narrative "that largely abandons fundamental rationale" has been created, says the analyst. Santarelli, who admits he doesn't know when this will end, believes the total addressable market story around sports betting "will start to crack" as more and more data points around per capita spend come to the forefront. Further, the level of sports betting competition will become more evident and questions around margins will begin to appear, predicts Santarelli. The analyst believes the "fundamental and valuation support" under Penn National shares is "lacking," and that "when some or all of these things happen," the stock will see a "considerable contraction." To reflect margin strength in Q3 and favorable core operating revisions, the analyst raised the firm's price target on Penn National Gaming to $31 from $22. Santarelli keeps a Sell rating on Penn with the stock closing Wednesday up $3.29 to $72.70.
 
Earnings season driven by unusual factors-- Covid has caused a lot of companies to be cautious with spending. There is a one time benefit here which should show up in the upcoming earnings... That's the good part. The EPS numbers will be there... the ongoing verbiage though... I am concerned.
 
...Las Vegas-based Caesars said in a filing Monday it would likely seek a buyer for the non-U.S. portion of William Hill -- a business Roth Capital Partners estimates could fetch $2 billion. But the real windfall would be a public offering of the two companies’ combined online businesses at a DraftKings-like valuation, a number Roth puts at more than $10 billion.
 
Why Is Berry not moving-? I can't find a stk with better fundamentals yet on up days no movement....

Berry Global Group Inc.:Berry Global Group manufactures plastic packaging products. The company's products include lids, tubes, closures, trash bags, cups, plates, bottles, bowls, and more. Additionally, Berry Global produces adhesives, tapes, and other packaging materials. In Q3 FY 2020, ended June 27, net sales rose 50% YOY while operating EBITDA increased 67% to a record.
 
I know plastic bags are being moved away from in supermarkets but I don't even read bags on their list of products! Just trash bags and we need those! They are vital.

By one measure-- EPS growth here is over 1000%-! (1,320)
 
Why is Ebay special?

Ebay has risen as Consumer discretionary stocks, as represented by the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY), have outperformed the broader market, providing investors with a total return of 20.8% compared to the Russell 1000's total return of 13.4% over the past 12 months....

Now with a flurry of white color firings we can draw the conclusion that Consumer discretionary may dip... but Ebay is a special in that it is also a work from home idea.. Ebay is a barbell onto itself-- you get the best of both worlds.. more people home starting up businesses in their garage is good for Ebay -- they straddle the discretionary sector in an interesting way. Buy.

And Advinta stake is interesting as well...

eBay Inc.: eBay is a global e-commerce company that connects buyers and sellers from different countries throughout the world. The company offers marketplaces for online auctions and classified ads. eBay announced this summer that Norwegian online classifieds company Adevinta would acquire its classifieds business for roughly $9.2 billion. The transaction includes a payment to eBay of $2.5 billion in cash as well as roughly 540 million shares of Adevinta, making eBay the largest shareholder of Adevinta with about 44% of all outstanding shares.
 
stonedinvestor said:
Now all of that good news we must weigh against-- I think this whole sector is ABOUT TO GO DOWN! Got that hunch Van I think you should short PENN<------
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Yeah I was thinking that earlier this week too. We'll see.


vanzandt said:
We were so ahead of the curve on sports betting stoney, now its the red-hot sector. We'll let it run some more, one or two of these things will be good shorts at some point. Let em run for now though.
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