Idea Origination

[btowntrader54]

Following up on NZDUSD


Not clear but I'm leaning to the short side as well.

Opened a minor short position for tomorrow's announcements.

 

[btowntrader54]

Quote from SchraderTrader:

Following up on NZDUSD


Not clear but I'm leaning to the short side as well.

Opened a minor short position for tomorrow's announcements.

The next day or two should provide us with our breakout/breakdown. Keep your eyes peeled for the various closes and important S/R lines.

**catalyst may have just occurred.**
3:00pm NZD Official Cash Rate 3.50% 4.00% 5.00%
NZD lowered their cash rate 150bp instead of the expected 100bp. Currency reacting as it should by depreciating.

If the TL remains broken on the close look for 0.5165-0.5180 to be the next level of support. If that breaks ratchet up the trade and look for at least 0.5000.

 

[womblevader]

I'm holding the short, a bit of USD strength will help. The Japanese have stopped margin lending on the carry trade so a big bounce is unlikely, more chance of further downside.

waiting for a break of 5150 next target will be 4800.

 

[btowntrader54]

Quote from womblevader:

I'm holding the short, a bit of USD strength will help. The Japanese have stopped margin lending on the carry trade so a big bounce is unlikely, more chance of further downside.

waiting for a break of 5150 next target will be 4800.

Why 4800?

I added to the short.

 

[btowntrader54]

USDCAD short

price broke all three MAs I use - placed stop above the lowest MA. Expect a test of the line.

Exit Profit: 1.1855 or so

 

[womblevader]

Why 4800. You have to go back in time a little. Last time there was a high global risk profile, low commodity prices and wind down of the carry trade [2001/2 I think], the Kiwi dropped to around 3800 from memory. I remember becasue I knew somwone who made a killing on the drop.

There is no real support when it gets below 5150 so who knows. Could see 3800 again.

It looks like shorts were loading up during the recent US strength, I expect most traders to jump on the bandwagon with this one.

Cheers

 

[btowntrader54]

Quote from SchraderTrader:

USDCAD short

price broke all three MAs I use - placed stop above the lowest MA. Expect a test of the line.

Exit Profit: 1.1855 or so

Follow up to USDCAD trade.

Solid entry point for short side.

 

[btowntrader54]

EURAUD short opportunity

Looking for 100-150 pips. 2hr chart looks to be at/near the upper end of the current range where it typically hits strong resistance.

Sloppy chart but gets the point across.

Entered at 1.9936, will double position if it gets to 2.00... I don't like averaging down but in this situation, with a tight stop above the second position, I'm OK with it.

 

[btowntrader54]

As a side topic, does anyone here use correlation in their FX trades to hedge risk?

 

[cabletrader]

Quote from SchraderTrader:

As a side topic, does anyone here use correlation in their FX trades to hedge risk?

Nice thread, some interesting charts and analysis.

I don't hedge positions as a rule but I found myself in a short Eur/Aud and a long Eur/Jpy the other day which seemed to work out quite well. Not sure of the correlation between the two pairs over the long term but for a couple of hours it seemed ok.

If you use MT4 for charting I came across a handy little overlay tool to have 2 pairs on the same chart, let me know if you want it and I'll dig it out.