iceman's options trading journal

Quote from iceman1:



02-04-06 03:04 PM

APOL


This might be a fiasco with rising rates and a crap chart but I am staying with APOL calls - rolling Feb calls into March next week - will keep a few short Feb 55c for protection with intent to exit at a loss IF APOL blasts higher. With the recent sell-off in broader markets, and certain issues - money may be looking to rotate into some beaten down names with 1/2-way reasonable fundamentals. Therefor I am staying with APOL, and may add small # of ITM call; next few days are telltale.

Still looking for >60 st on APOL and then re-evaluate r/r from there. Obviously <55 still doable like last month. Certainly swimming upsteam on this one! Of course NTES looked like warm p-ke when we first go into it -- having sold off 40 points and lookie what happened. NTES did have a better bottom in and suprise news from China to act as a catalyst for the early January blast off.

Look at it this way- IF you were a so-called LT investor and bought APOL in July 2004 you'd be underwater $40; IF you bought in June 2005 youd be 25 in the red. So like they say one person's ceiling is another person's floor - and vice versa. Let's hope we're getting in on the first floor - albeit a little early! Assuming the proverbial ANALysts know anything at all and are somewhat correct in earnings of 3.36 next year - as a position trader entering at these levels I am not overpaying.

One big concern is it's 85 year old interim Chairman. Now that is uncertainty. :eek: But then again - we gotta expect them to announce a new CEO sometime soon which IMHO would fuel a pop. Also recent broader market weakness, and higher borrowing rates may stifle this one.

but money flow aiming higher, and MFI heading to >50. Next couple days will be telltale.

My trading target by March 15 is >67
More...

APOL

looks like another decent call - but again I did not do size, yet! Unfortunately I was not in enough long March calls to make much off this position today-- and my Feb 60c is underwater with 5 days to go. I was looking to add next week. I mean --- who would expect APOL to move higher in the midst of a slaughter on NAZ.

But APOL is up decently today- while the market is going to H in a handbasket. Not bad!

Suggest we add or get in on any decent PBs This could/might be another NTES home run!
 
Quote from iceman1:

Quote from iceman1:

staying with (bullish) positions in

DNA

+ march 85c
- feb90c
+ march 100c

PnL = +

based upon

1. falling wedge-like pattern (daily close) forming since 1/11/06 albeit sloping in direction of recent downtrend. 2. potential bullish divergence on macd 3. gap/volume on 1/11/06 4. ANALysts targets 5. I like this one to trade >100 this Q.

negative: <50 d/ema

____________________________________________________


can't think of one reason this stock should not re-test 100

stop at <83 and will re-evaluate
More...

adding to DNA positions

managed my long March85 calls by selling Feb85 @1.90-2 and also re-selling Feb 90c (basis = 1.40)

after previously closing them.

I now also have a 85p time spread

+ march85
- feb95p

-$1

risk on this --- is DNA being marked back to 80 --- rather than being expiry arbed back to 85 as many like me expect!
 
can't wait to start trading pro with HAIRCUT margin later this Q after I pass series 7!

we are going to produce some great returns.

this retail options margining is absurd. just can't manage and/or protect yourself enough when things get skewed further than indicated.
 
EBAY

was short 8 EBAY Feb 45p

was assigned today so now

+800 EBAY @ (net) 42.50

(not including all the front month calls - that were sold and closed for ++)


NB --- over many years my experience with early assignment on (deep) ITM options is that almost 80-85% of the time it marks a bottom (or top) in the underlying security.

Will keep an eye on EBAY - hard to believe those clowns were able to mark it to 47-48 post-earnings before putting the pedal to the metal! What a scam.

Suggest going long EBAY ITM calls
 
Quote from iceman1:

adding to DNA positions

managed my long March85 calls by selling Feb85 @1.90-2 and also re-selling Feb 90c (basis = 1.40)

after previously closing them.

I now also have a 85p time spread

+ march85
- feb95p

-$1

risk on this --- is DNA being marked back to 80 --- rather than being expiry arbed back to 85 as many like me expect!
More...



correction


+ march 85p
- feb 85p
 
Quote from iceman1:

NDX

although it is not productive to look for bottoms - I beleive NDX will st bottom today (or Monday)

IMHO

thus I am patiently looking to enter long calls on NDX/MNX
More...

Hmmmmm...

things that make you go ....

YEAhh Baaby

(gordon- you once told me - don't get emotional about stocks - don't...!)
 
Quote from iceman1:

APOL

looks like another decent call - but again I did not do size, yet! Unfortunately I was not in enough long March calls to make much off this position today-- and my Feb 60c is underwater with 5 days to go. I was looking to add next week. I mean --- who would expect APOL to move higher in the midst of a slaughter on NAZ.

But APOL is up decently today- while the market is going to H in a handbasket. Not bad!

Suggest we add or get in on any decent PBs This could/might be another NTES home run!
More...

anyone get into APOL?

not a bad call !

IT IS GOING HIGHER guys - be patient and look to enter on PB . Earnings not until mid-March so unless they warn - we could be ready for take-off!

Recall that my trade target posted on this Journal for APOL is 67-68

I am sitting here listening to baby boomer bro Steve Tyler singing "Dream ON"

great tune --

Sing with me, sing for the years
Sing for the laughter, sing for the tears
Sing with me, if it’s just for today
Maybe tomorrow the good lord will take you away

I know what nobody knows
Where it comes and where it goes
I know it’s everybody’s sin
You got to lose to know how to win

Dream on, dream on
Dream yourself a dream come true
Dream on, dream on
Dream until your dream comes true
 
Quote from iceman1:



2-10-06

adding to DNA positions

managed my long March85 calls by selling Feb85 @1.90-2 and also re-selling Feb 90c (basis = 1.40)

after previously closing them.

I now also have a 85p time spread

+ march85
- feb95p

-$1

risk on this --- is DNA being marked back to 80 --- rather than being expiry arbed back to 85 as many like me expect!
More...

2-10-06

DNA


AH news on DNA

last print 85.25 = +1.75

Yeahhh Baaabbby :D

anyone get into DNA before the train leaves the station and it hits 100? :eek:

It's great to inverst/trade a company that does so much good for people in the real world! Who knows which one of us will actually need a DNA drug --- sometime down the road! Any day they might discover THE wonder drug --- and stock goes to 300!


Genentech, Biogen: Rituxan OK'd for add'l lymphoma treatment

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Genentech Inc. (DNA : genentech inc com new
News , chart, profile, more
Last: 83.52+0.01+0.01%

5:22pm 02/10/2006
BIIB44.27, +0.03, +0.1%) after Friday's closing bell said the Food and Drug Administration has approved Rituxan for use in the first-line treatment of patients with diffuse large B-cell, CD20-positive, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in combination with anthracycline-based chemotherapy regimens. Rituxan was discovered by Biogen Idec, and the company co-markets it along with Genentech. Rituxan had previously been approved as a single agent for use in relapsed or refractory, low-grade or follicular, CD20-positive, B-cell non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. The companies said an estimated 360,000 Americans have non-Hodgkins lymphoma, and more than 58,000 new cases are diagnosed annually
 
here's what I am going to mediate on this weekend since I messed up a wet dream in AAPl and only did OK by "thinking" that 70 support would have to hold AND by listening to one or more other less experienced traders who claimed AAPl would never fall to 65 -- but rather make new highs soon - and see 100 before 65.

have a good one!

iceman1


“If you really believe in an uncertain outcome, then you also have to expect that virtually anything can happen. Otherwise, the moment you let your mind hold onto the notion that you know, you stop taking all of the unknown variables into consideration. Your mind won’t let you have it both ways. If you believe you know something, the moment is no longer unique.”

Douglas, Trading in the Zone


The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism... by those who have not got it.

G. B. Shaw
 
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