iceman's options trading journal

[iceman1]

Quote from iceman1:

JBLU

on radar for entry --- LEAPS or sept 1250c

gonna double

looking to enter JBLU soon - just want to clear up some positions and finish an account transfer! Expect to get 60-70% minimum on the trade ! Oil will fuel the move higher !

06-Feb-06
09:55 JBLU Jetblue Airways reports January traffic (11.50 -0.25)
Co reported today that its traffic in January increased 25.1% from January 2005, on a capacity increase of 27.2%. Load factor for January 2006 was 82.3%, a decrease of 1.4 points from January 2005.


"It is not enough to simply have the insight to see something apart from the rest of the crowd, you also need to have the courage to act on it and to stay with it. It's very difficult to be different from the rest of the crowd the majority of the time, which by definition is what you are doing if you are a successful trader."

Bill Lipschutz

 

[bjdhawk]

huge lots going off on feb XLNX 2750 calls.....3 lots have made up roughly 95% of the 2100 contract volume thus far??

 

[iceman1]

Quote from bjdhawk:

huge lots going off on feb XLNX 2750 calls.....3 lots have made up roughly 95% of the 2100 contract volume thus far??

what price did you sell the straddle at

 

[bjdhawk]

Quote from iceman1:

what price did you sell the straddle at

legged into calls at .45 and puts at .60 with expectation that this thing plunges thru the already filled 1/5/06 gap support level. Also thought cisco report tonight might take tech down, but that hasn't seemed to pan out.

overall, not my best endeavor....

 

[iceman1]

Quote from iceman1:

1-31-06



what we see AH today is what we will see in QM and OIH and oil stocks --- SOON

so far I have been early in predicting that oil is going to get hammered albeit I have made ok profits trading OIH from the short side. My one error was when I posted on the Journal that I was considering going long 155 OIH calls on the day we had that large PB to 146-148 territory. That was a faux pas to not enter those calls.

But right now I am stalking a short entry into QM, and OIH that I can hold for a period of time all the way down. It may be next month or maybe not until May- but we will catch it just like in 2000 when everyone was saying how the market would never go lower. OIL reminds me of that sentiment.

We are reaching a once-in-a-lifetime shorting opportunity in oil. Prices have been manipualted higher IMHO. Remember when "they" want out of oil stocks - OIH won't just go down 10-15 points -- try more like 50-100 points.

JMHO


iceman1


p.s. geeezz-- almost sounds like Prechter! :eek:

not a bad timed call!



anyone short QM or OIH ?

Ice

 

[bjdhawk]

XLNX had a little follow thru from Wed gap up. straddle turned out profitable. today i closed the feb 2750c at 1.3 for +.85 but kept open the 2750p. overall position is locked in profit.

Ice, curious to know your thoughts on hanging onto an unprofitable leg of a strategy b/c the MV is relatively small? Do you ever play for that pure chance? (Understanding that my XLNX puts still have a decent MV and am certainly not saying these are worth nothing)

It's kind of like leaving the casino with a rack full of high $$ chips and having couple $5 chips....do you walk by the roulette table and throw it on red?

 

[novel20]

Iceman1, how did your trading in AAPL go?

I just remember you were bearish and traded like crazy in AAPL stocks and options, and you missed the whole run up and at the end you probably break even or slightly red.

What do you think about AAPL now? Do you think it is time to long?

 

[iceman1]

Quote from bjdhawk:

XLNX had a little follow thru from Wed gap up. straddle turned out profitable. today i closed the feb 2750c at 1.3 for +.85 but kept open the 2750p. overall position is locked in profit.

Ice, curious to know your thoughts on hanging onto an unprofitable leg of a strategy b/c the MV is relatively small? Do you ever play for that pure chance? (Understanding that my XLNX puts still have a decent MV and am certainly not saying these are worth nothing)

It's kind of like leaving the casino with a rack full of high $$ chips and having couple $5 chips....do you walk by the roulette table and throw it on red?

bravo !

I thought you were short the straddle.

Look at a day like today - perfect example of what you are saying. Only you would have to be nimble, and able to ID reversal in very st trends.

I'd keep XLNX puts if it were me and/or roll into March for cheap. Of course I am biased on the SOX correcting. I could be wrong

 

[iceman1]

Quote from novel20:

Iceman1, how did your trading in AAPL go?

I just remember you were bearish and traded like crazy in AAPL stocks and options, and you missed the whole run up and at the end you probably break even or slightly red.

What do you think about AAPL now? Do you think it is time to long?

You are right - I am up on position but I have some short 75p that I rolled into March at a loss but I closed a ton of short calls the past two weeks all the way down from 95c to 70c, and sold a lot of long puts for profit so I could be up more than I believe. Have to review my gain/loss report next week after Feb expiry. l'll try to post it as an attachment.

Considering that I had been telling several traders that AAPL would see 65 (when it was 86) and some said I was nuts---- no doubt I should be up much more.

Hard to go long with what we are seeing in AAPL recently. I am not going long other than day trading it. Today and yesterdays' action had me fooled. Which is why I still hold Feb 75p short (after I have been scaling out of long March 70 puts for +4). I really thought it would see >70 today. If I don't get it- I tend to stay away.

That said, it would not surprise me one bit IF it trades to 70 next week.

You could say that by holding the 75p (spread) and no more short calls -- that I am net long - although I plan to sell March 70c if I can get >3.50-4

 

[iceman1]

NDX

although it is not productive to look for bottoms - I beleive NDX will st bottom today (or Monday)

IMHO

thus I am patiently looking to enter long calls on NDX/MNX