iceman's options trading journal

[cnms2]

Iceman,

Interesting articles. Thanks for sharing.

I always liked and tried to apply the 10/90 law (some call it 20/80): 90% of results are obtained with 10% of effort. But, the 20:1 largest / normal size ratio sounds really risky as well as the whole discretionary concept of "feeling" when to use it.

 

[iceman1]

Quote from cnms2:

Iceman,

Interesting articles. Thanks for sharing.

I always liked and tried to apply the 10/90 law (some call it 20/80): 90% of results are obtained with 10% of effort. But, the 20:1 largest / normal size ratio sounds really risky as well as the whole discretionary concept of "feeling" when to use it.

u r welcome

 

[bongoyvr]

Is there an underlying expectation of what Ebay's earnings will be like? I'm trying to do chart analysis and all I'm coming up with is : VOLATILITY.

lol.

anyone?

ps..newb here so sorry if I am not posting this appropriately however I did notice Iceman did recently play Ebay options...

 

[iceman1]

Quote from wabrew:

I have been reading your journal with interest. Thank you for the above posts. I believe you have a good handle on many of the psychological aspects of trading.

Two questions.
1) Can you give us any insight on how you select the underlying stocks for your option trades, and,
2) will your new efforts standardize the way you post your entry/exit/position reporting.

We appreciate your sharing of potential future stock selections. I did make a small trade on HUM puts that came from one of your posts. It did not get to your high point but I did Enjoy a small profit.

At times I have found your entries difficult to understand. Am looking forward to your 'more concise' postings as promised. Last year an ET member, SammySOESa did something similar - his posts were very easy to follow. http://www.freewebs.com/mytradingjournal/ no need to do elaborate blog - just an easy to follow log.

Thank you for your time on this project

welcome - ty
glad you found them useful

1. yes -- after Jan will try to state selection process for trades posted in Journal. Looking back some of my best decisions/trading in the 90s has been intuitive-based. Of course that intuition didn't arrive in a vacuum- something triggered it. When I tried to figure out a trade - usually I didn't perform as well. It's like sometimes "you just know it", and you have to honor that feeling and take the trade. As we know from Schwager's books - both automatated and discretionary trading can work well; apparently Biggs' book "Hedge Hogging" addresses the subject. Gotta read it soon.

2. yes

thanks for the link to SammySOESa - good format

 

[iceman1]

Quote from bongoyvr:

Is there an underlying expectation of what Ebay's earnings will be like? I'm trying to do chart analysis and all I'm coming up with is : VOLATILITY.

lol.

anyone?

ps..newb here so sorry if I am not posting this appropriately however I did notice Iceman did recently play Ebay options...

you know what... I am totally confused about what to do with EBAY. I'd like to think it gaps a lot higher on earnings simply given the strength of the overall market so far in 2006. But there are cross-currents; and this one fooled me before. So I might try to exit/scratch my EBAY positions pre-earnings since I still have more exposure then I want or need particularly given my neutral bias on this one, and my intent to raise cash levels so I can comfortably increase positions sizing and focus more -- after January expiry. Don't want to take delivery. But maybe my neutral bias is somehow accurate so that holding my short ATM straddle (legged into) isn't all that bad a play. Guess I could leg into an iron fly. I did close some short 4250p and 4750p (i.e. short strangle) - and overpaid to do so.

If you or anyone have ideas on EBAY - we're all ears?

What I'm more interested in is NTES, TIE and CME.

Ice

 

[iceman1]

Quote from iceman1:

you know what... I am totally confused about what to do with EBAY. I'd like to think it gaps a lot higher on earnings simply given the strength of the overall market so far in 2006. But there are cross-currents; and this one fooled me before. So I might try to exit/scratch my EBAY positions pre-earnings since I still have more exposure then I want or need particularly given my neutral bias on this one, and my intent to raise cash levels so I can comfortably increase positions sizing and focus more -- after January expiry. Don't want to take delivery. But maybe my neutral bias is somehow accurate so that holding my short ATM straddle (legged into) isn't all that bad a play. Guess I could leg into an iron fly. I did close some short 4250p and 4750p (i.e. short strangle) - and overpaid to do so.

If you or anyone have ideas on EBAY - we're all ears?

What I'm more interested in is NTES, TIE and CME.

Ice

Friedman Billings ups eBay price target to $52 from $44

gotta love ANALysts - they had all month to upgrade and they pick the day b4 earnings!

actually I agree with them though

 

[iceman1]

Quote from iceman1:

added 3 OIH NH (Oil Feb 140 puts)

@ 4.40

now +8 @4.66


may be early - OIH may trade to 145 - was actually going long OIH calls when I exited OIH puts yesterday - let's see what happpens - also looks like a potential re-test of broken TL.

target on OIH is 135-136

OIH = 145+

Duh--- wish I was wrong and it DIDN'T trade back to 145+. What can you do ? Was it Pogo that said "we have met the enemy- and they are us"!!

Obviosuly my OIH NH puts wre mildly hammered today. The good new is that there is a gap on OIH. What I really should do is buy the same OIH NI (145 puts) back --- that I sold at 7.10 last week.

But not going to add OIH puts at this time.

SO-- IF--- my gut said OIH could trade back to 145- why didnt I buy calls and puts- Jan calls & Feb puts? But that would be like loving two women without making a committment to either, yet. Hmmmm. Gotta think about that one tonight.

 

[iceman1]

Excuse me while I PUKE!

Well --- going to take a break from this Journal for rest of week --- while I bang my head against the door for exiting SOX Feb 510 Puts/January 540 puts a few days ago --- for a few pennies profit--- and miss today/tomorrow's move. ARgggh! AND to make matters worse I also closed some short SOX Jan 500 calls today (sold @ 31-33).

Go ahead ask me why! Hell if I know.

Wait a minute I DO KNOW.

Because I THOUGHT too much during the heat of battle today and last week about what MIGHT or could happen -- rather than STICKING WITH MY PLANNING to stay short SOX until at least Friday. A plan that I formulated in the calm, restful, peaceful and quiet solitude of relaxing post-trading hours. The chart said LOWER (to me) --- so I entered puts. Duh! So far so good.

But what happened next reminds me of a scene from Top Gun. Maverick is doing some great flying ----- but gets banged by Jester/Viper for leaving his WINGMAN. Later he is confronted and the dialogue is something like this: "Maverick that was some of the best flying I've seen------ right up to the point when you got killed" !! Never ever LEAVE YOUR WINGMAN!

I left my wingman - and I am not happy about it. :eek:

Pass the GINGKO!

FINALLY -- who was it who asked me WHY I was long MNX 180 Puts. Ok here's the reason for the selection of ITM 180 mnx puts. BECAUSE every trade I post and enter --- is at least 75-80% or CERTAIN TO MAKE MONEY--- PROVIDED

1. I'm patient in waiting for a "go-ahead-and-pick-up-the-money-in-the-corner-James-Rogers-trade" - which is a large part of my methodology, and

2. I stick with my ideas and planning UNTIL I am convinced that I am NOT JUST EARLY- but WRONG!

Period!! Anything else is mental masturbation trading 101!

I did NOT do that with my SOX trades SO I will be relinquishing some further decent profits on what (appears) to be further downside tomorrow, not to mention today's move.

I will check back next Monday. :eek:





I

 

[iceman1]

one final thought

OIL is TOPPING OUT - OIL stocks are TOPPING OUT

I am going to continue scaling into OIL puts. I will go out further this time.

But anyone who thinks OIL is going to go up forever - I suggest you re-read Hx and look back to 1999-early 2000!

The bubble will burst as sure as I am writing this.

It may not be immediately as it takes time to turn around an oil tanker - but trust me - IF you want to increase your bankroll and move from the 5/10 game to 500/1000 game....

Be ready to short OIL !!

OIL is being manipulated higher and this bubble will burst. More money will be made on the downside than is left on the upside by 4/1.

JMHO

 

[iceman1]

Quote from momoneythansens:

01-09-06 03:39 PM

Quick question: what is your reasoning/analysis for going long MNX PUTS? In addition, what delta/gamma/IV criteria did you use for selecting the 180 series?

reasoning/analysis???? gamma/IV crietria??

Let's leave that to the ANALysts at MIT.

Confucius say:

"when market go DOWN big- put go UP... when market go up Big ... call go UP...!"