iceman's options trading journal

Quote from iceman1:

NTES


hope some traders got into a NTES straddle or strangle as I sugggested/advised --- NTES looking good again today in early trading = +3

of course I am looking for it to trade around 60 +/- a point or so -- into next week. so I can collect full value on my 60 straddle - but we will see. My gut says it trades to >62

remember that Monday is a (trading) Holiday
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NTES

+6


hey-- what can I say--- I tried to get some traders into this one! Hope some did.....! You cn lead a horse to water - but you can't make him drink. Then again- taking advice adn "tips" from toher traders etc. is nto agood habit to get into.


closed my NTES Jan 60 puts for .40 (underwater on Jan 60c portion of straddle - DUH!)!!! But March 60c are + 5.50 - just didn't react quick enough and close my Jan 60c - and roll up. Will have to mange this side, now.

Once again I got cute and didn't add more NTES March calls as was my intent (see above post) since it didn't get to my "perfect" price. Of course there is not perfect price -- but apparently I must have imagined there was one. Again -- was too distracted and diversified in positions so lost focus on NTES and got lulled into sitting on my hands thinking I had time to add more size.

After this expiraton - there is ZERO doubt I am drastically reducing my # of positions and greatly increasing positions size. Just too fking frustrating to miss hammering something like a NTES move due to being spread too thin across too many equities and indexes.


added the NTES Jan 70c @ .40 looking to roll my Jan 60c -- unless NTES backs off 5% in next couple days.

sold Feb 60p for 3.30

:D :D :D

will sell Jan 65p if I can get +3 later this week.
 
Ice,

enjoy your journal. would like to get your thoughts on something.

you have talked about traders 'pinning' a stock at expirations periods. does this typically happen to all stocks general or more volatile stocks? What are some things to keep in mind about this?

for example, i own jan EK25calls with EK price hovering just shy of the strike. Heading into expiry week, is it plausable for traders to pin the price or am i completely off base with this?

appreciate your insights!
 
Quote from iceman1:

tried to add more MNX Feb 180p but the offer never came down to 6.50 - (my entry target). In any event my "feeling" is that NDX seeks out the 1750 level (i.e. mnx 175) - at which point I will triple my size on 180 or 185 MNX puts

only thing that bothers me a little is the p/c ratio was >.65 on Friday - not a big number so far as contrary indications (since the current level and m/avg on the p/c ratio in the 'old days' would be in bearish territory anyway for a few weeks now)

But it is higher than recent levels which were mostly in the .50-55 area - so that may mean higher price levels on the broader markets. Then again in a hedge fund era its possible that today's high/low p/c ratios should be interpreted differently than in pre-2000 days - perhaps it is no longer a contrary indocator but a leading indicator.
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looking to add 6 more mnx Feb 180 P @ 6.20
 
Quote from bjdhawk:

Ice,

enjoy your journal. would like to get your thoughts on something.

you have talked about traders 'pinning' a stock at expirations periods. does this typically happen to all stocks general or more volatile stocks? What are some things to keep in mind about this?

for example, i own jan EK25calls with EK price hovering just shy of the strike. Heading into expiry week, is it plausable for traders to pin the price or am i completely off base with this?

appreciate your insights!
More...


thanks - please feel free to post any options or stock ideas/plays you have that you consider higher r/r plays- and we and others reading the forum can kick them around. I'm always looking for input; never want to stop learning -and am always seeking to improve by looking at things in more creative or different ways than prior habits might dictate.

just sent you a PM
 
Quote from iceman1:

GOOG

order buying GOOG Feb 420 puts @ 5.90

LOL
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obviously not going to fill

GOOG is a riotous stock. They keep raising the vola on the OTMs as it bubbles higher each day-- heading toward a million dollars per share-- and then when it sells off a few pennies - the vola declines significantly is seems
 
Quote from iceman1:


hey-- what can I say--- I tried to get some traders into this one! Hope some did.....! You cn lead a horse to water - but you can't make him drink. Then again- taking advice adn "tips" from toher traders etc. is nto agood habit to get into.
More...


can anyone recommend a good typing class - available AH?!

LMAO
 
Quote from iceman1:

tried to add more MNX Feb 180p but the offer never came down to 6.50 - (my entry target). In any event my "feeling" is that NDX seeks out the 1750 level (i.e. mnx 175) - at which point I will triple my size on 180 or 185 MNX puts

only thing that bothers me a little is the p/c ratio was >.55 on Friday - not a big number so far as contrary indications (since the current level and m/avg on the p/c ratio in the 'old days' would be in bearish territory anyway for a few weeks now)

But it is higher than recent levels which were mostly in the .45-.50 area - so that may mean higher price levels on the broader markets. Then again in a hedge fund era its possible that today's high/low p/c ratios should be interpreted differently than in pre-2000 days - perhaps it is no longer a contrary indocator but a leading indicator.
More...

MNX


added (2) Feb06 180p @ 6.20 (long 10 total)

trying to sell MNX Jan 7250p @1.20-140
 
Hi Iceman,

Nice journal. Keep it up. Great reading.

Quick question: what is your reasoning/analysis for going long MNX PUTS?

In addition, what delta/gamma/IV criteria did you use for selecting the 180 series?

Any reason for using MNX over NDX on this trade?

MoMoney.

Quote from iceman1:

MNX


added (2) Feb06 180p @ 6.20 (long 10 total)

trying to sell MNX Jan 7250p @1.20-140
More...
 
Quote from momoneythansens:

Hi Iceman,

Nice journal. Keep it up. Great reading.

Quick question: what is your reasoning/analysis for going long MNX PUTS?

In addition, what delta/gamma/IV criteria did you use for selecting the 180 series?

Any reason for using MNX over NDX on this trade?

MoMoney.
More...

TY

feel free to post any option trading ideas on the thread.

as far as your questions-- I want to profit IF NDX has a decent retracement of the recent move higher- it is my considered opinion that the ITM puts will work well should I be correct on an NDX retracement in mid-late January. If I am incorrect then I will either convert the strategy to a profitable one -- if that is doable at such time as I begin to feel my game plan has failed or is likely to "fail" or close them accordingly.

--- so far as what delta/gamma/IV criteria used- I was not that concerned about that- maybe guys like Joe Ritchie (or riskarb etc.) had to be concerned about such things when doing huge size but for me I know these puts will give me very decent bang for the buck IF (and when) NDX has a decent retracement. I tend not to worry about the greeks/vola as much as some others unless I am trading perhaps a bio stock or in front of some key news or crucial earnings release, i.e. GOOG or AAPL where vola may be important in a given strategy (i.e. selling a straddle). Otherwise - a decent handle on options and a basic sound knowledge of greeks is sufficient.

A while back on ET there was a thread on the Options Forum regarding what options books one must read, and related discussions about options and analysis.

At that time "Maverick74" (who is clearly very well-versed in options trading and analysis) posted what I consider some of the most cogent and valuable insight/input on options and options trading that I have read ever (and which I concur with him on). In fact his comments ought to be in EVERY options book in the Forward or Introduction therof.

Although there are contrary views to his (mine) --- I will re-post said comments here for those that did not view that thread back in 2004.

Further it speaks to your inquiry.

to-wit:

Maverick74
Registered: Mar 2002
Posts: 3896
4-13-04 09:15 AM

I'm very surprised that no one has mentioned "Option Market Making" by Jan Allen Baird. Of all the books I have read on options, and I have read them all, this is by far the best. But read it after you read Cottle and Natenburg.

And on a side note, all the authors of these books are very very bad traders. I have met many of them. Its not the semantics that you need to learn, if you are not a good trader overall, reading all the books in the world and understanding all of the nuances of the greeks won't make you a dime. That's why a lot of these guys stay in academia and never wander into the real world.

So read the books, take them with a grain of salt and add as much experience as humanly possible. And most important of all, create your own path. Don't follow the ideas in these books but rather use these ideas to create your own. All of these books will do is allow you to carry on a conversation in a bar over options, none of them will put money in your pocket. That's my two cents.

And candle, I suggest you PM metooxx as well. He has more experience trading options then everyone on this board combined. He also might be able to give you some great insights. Good luck.


Maverick74
Registered: Mar 2002
Posts: 3896
04-13-04 09:44 AM

I'll post some useful links here. If you really want to get serious, and I'm not talking sunday afternoon reading, but if you really want to delve into the semantics, check out this website and start ordering some of these books. If it's worth reading, it's on this site.

http://finmath.com/

If you want a serious message board for option traders, check out this place.

http://www.wilmott.com/

Go here to Taleb's home page. He has some interesting essays on risk and other related topics.

http://www.fooledbyrandomness.org/

This is a great website for the derivative mind. All that is going on in the world of derivatives.

http://www.riskwaters.com/risk/


This website is a great place to freshen up on your statistics knowledge.

http://www.statsoft.com/textbook/stathome.html

And welcome to the world of probabilities.

http://www.probability.net/

Enjoy!
 
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