iceman's options trading journal
- Thread starter iceman1
- Start date
well--- damn it anyway-- was trying to wait until 1/2/2006 before adding many more positions - but think this is one trade I should have taken --- just didn't hit anywhere near my intended entry price on the 85 puts - and didn't like the Feb90c/85c last week.
So now if and when it trades <85 I can say that I did excellent analytical work- but made -0- dough for the effort. Of course- if it trades back to 90 I will feel like I honored my plan (i.e. discipline) to enter at <70 on said puts
(my original entry was <.75- then lowered to .65).
Obviously this demonstrates the adage we all have heard-- that our "first" instinct is often the best one as entry @ .75/80 ---looks excellent right about now!
the problem was I wanted to sell the 80p also-- after entering the 85p -- and didn't like the premium on said spread. In fact the 80p hasn't budged all day even w/COF reversal and sell off.
ANF
awaiting a short entry as mentioned a week or so ago-- actually at the time I was going to play the 65 (call) calendar - but stock never traded >65 during Dec expiration -
I got a gut feel this stock gets hammered back to <60 after Friday...! In fact today's high was not a bad entry. I was looking for 67+ to begin scaling in--- but why quibble?
I would get in right now- but I got so many open positions--- for example I am nursing the
(short) KLAC 50 straddle @ 5.90 (10#)
(also small # +Jan 47.50p @.65/+March 55c @1.40)
and several others on MNX and SOX
actually too many (smaller) positions -
---- and over the weekend I spent a lot of time on a business plan for 2006 which will include larger size and less positions. More bang for the buck. I actually re-read both Market Wizard books cover to cover this weekend.
It is my view I have been underperforming my potential, and each of us wishes to maximize our strengths and our returns --- in accordance with our particular skills and experience and the like. It's great to be risk oriented- but like the saying goes "you can't lose what you don't put in the middle--- but you can't make much either"! Usually hate slogans like that- which too often sound like trading bravado- but it does makes sense to be paid for your efforts.
I think the 2000 market year had a big impact on my views toward risk. A very positive one actually- but now I think it's gotten out of hand.
:eek: My trading "personality" has changed from the 90s when I would carry 40K overnight and 100s of options.
Right now I will still seek to position/swing trade but I want to be able to ring the register each week -- and have capital freed up for more intra-day trading--- like today when I was all set to short the NDX- but I had strategies in the MNX --- and didn't want to disrupt things- and more importantly didn't really have a "plan" on how to enter the expected short position off the opening gap higher.
I also have lately tended to focus too much on expiration when I sell prem. and then find myself constantly adding options to reduce/hedge risk. I am not really a delta neutral trader as much as other traders since many times such strategies are capital and labor intensive in order to make a decent ROI so to speak- and besides I am controlling risk by my position sizing. But IF I am going to do less size than in the 90s- why not trade more on the underlying --- and get 100% for being right -- and still be able to involve options i.e. on indexes and ETFs --- to enhance said directional returns --- while somewhat reducing overnight risks?
Too much slippage also --- even with rock bottom options commish compared to the 90s fee structure.
Frankly for me in 2006 --- the hallmark of my business/trade plan (i.e. an edge) will be extreme "patience" to await the 'arrival' of high probability (option) trades-- at least with respect to the swing and longer term ones - while trading around these "core" positions thru out the cycle(s) thereby allowing stronger trading intuition (and working on improving same as well) --- dictate ST opportunities to take --- and by having plentiful capital available for those higher R/R opportunities said decisions will not be 'hammpered' by concerns over onerous and sub-optimal retail margining and/or lacking (sufficient) often needed capital for repair/management of key options strategies, as well.
awaiting a short entry as mentioned a week or so ago-- actually at the time I was going to play the 65 (call) calendar - but stock never traded >65 during Dec expiration -
I got a gut feel this stock gets hammered back to <60 after Friday...! In fact today's high was not a bad entry. I was looking for 67+ to begin scaling in--- but why quibble?
I would get in right now- but I got so many open positions--- for example I am nursing the
(short) KLAC 50 straddle @ 5.90 (10#)
(also small # +Jan 47.50p @.65/+March 55c @1.40)
and several others on MNX and SOX
actually too many (smaller) positions -
---- and over the weekend I spent a lot of time on a business plan for 2006 which will include larger size and less positions. More bang for the buck. I actually re-read both Market Wizard books cover to cover this weekend.
It is my view I have been underperforming my potential, and each of us wishes to maximize our strengths and our returns --- in accordance with our particular skills and experience and the like. It's great to be risk oriented- but like the saying goes "you can't lose what you don't put in the middle--- but you can't make much either"! Usually hate slogans like that- which too often sound like trading bravado- but it does makes sense to be paid for your efforts.
I think the 2000 market year had a big impact on my views toward risk. A very positive one actually- but now I think it's gotten out of hand.
:eek: My trading "personality" has changed from the 90s when I would carry 40K overnight and 100s of options. Right now I will still seek to position/swing trade but I want to be able to ring the register each week -- and have capital freed up for more intra-day trading--- like today when I was all set to short the NDX- but I had strategies in the MNX --- and didn't want to disrupt things- and more importantly didn't really have a "plan" on how to enter the expected short position off the opening gap higher.
I also have lately tended to focus too much on expiration when I sell prem. and then find myself constantly adding options to reduce/hedge risk. I am not really a delta neutral trader as much as other traders since many times such strategies are capital and labor intensive in order to make a decent ROI so to speak- and besides I am controlling risk by my position sizing. But IF I am going to do less size than in the 90s- why not trade more on the underlying --- and get 100% for being right -- and still be able to involve options i.e. on indexes and ETFs --- to enhance said directional returns --- while somewhat reducing overnight risks?
Too much slippage also --- even with rock bottom options commish compared to the 90s fee structure.
Frankly for me in 2006 --- the hallmark of my business/trade plan (i.e. an edge) will be extreme "patience" to await the 'arrival' of high probability (option) trades-- at least with respect to the swing and longer term ones - while trading around these "core" positions thru out the cycle(s) thereby allowing stronger trading intuition (and working on improving same as well) --- dictate ST opportunities to take --- and by having plentiful capital available for those higher R/R opportunities said decisions will not be 'hammpered' by concerns over onerous and sub-optimal retail margining and/or lacking (sufficient) often needed capital for repair/management of key options strategies, as well.
PD
looking to add shorts---
as I posted on another thread, it would be best to await a "key reversal day" before entering/adding PD shorts (via puts in particular) --
Well although volume wasn't much- being year end - today we did have an outside reversal day with a lower close. So in keepng with my premise that PD will get hammered in Q1 of 2006 --- and having been looking for a day like today to add on-- it would now behoove me to act in accordance with that intent by adding PD puts or short calls - or both.
I am however already backspread 135/140p (4/1) and also short 130 puts --- looking to sell 140c-145c or 150c --- tomorrow.
Of course in order for us to consider today's action as 'key' we wil look for confirmation tomorrow. Right now I am sticking with my forecast low of 135-138 - minimum!
looking to add shorts---
as I posted on another thread, it would be best to await a "key reversal day" before entering/adding PD shorts (via puts in particular) --
Well although volume wasn't much- being year end - today we did have an outside reversal day with a lower close. So in keepng with my premise that PD will get hammered in Q1 of 2006 --- and having been looking for a day like today to add on-- it would now behoove me to act in accordance with that intent by adding PD puts or short calls - or both.
I am however already backspread 135/140p (4/1) and also short 130 puts --- looking to sell 140c-145c or 150c --- tomorrow.
Of course in order for us to consider today's action as 'key' we wil look for confirmation tomorrow. Right now I am sticking with my forecast low of 135-138 - minimum!
NTES
bought (4) March 60c @2.95
GTC order buying (4) @ 2.55
will enter 10-12 total @ <3
then sell ratio of January 60 or Feb 65c on mark up as I expect beginning 1/2/2006 - although given the gap lower it may take some time before NTES gains traction and begins moving >60-62
NTES could see <56 tomorrow via tax selling so I expect to be able to scale in to more March 60c
order working to sell 4 Jan 60c @ .95
PD
pleased it had a nice sell-off today allowing me to sell more Jan 40 puts and move closer to neutral - in my Jan backpread. Yesterday I closed - PD Jan 130p @ LOD = .40 (sold @ 1.90)
for profit = + 750
today --- re-sold the same (5) p for .725
PD
- 12 Jan 135p @ 217
- 7 Jan 14op @ 270
- 5 Jan 130p @ .725
+ 5 Jan 125p @ .45
- 1 Jan 145c @ 5.90 (will sell 1 more after PD moves above 146 -147 today)
+ 2 Jan 155c @ 1.65
AAPL
sold Jan 167.50p @ 1.35-140
+ 7 AAPL Jan 62.50p @ 2.31
- 7 AAPL Jan 67.50p @ 1.375
this is the third time I have rolled this spread beginning in December - so the basis on Jan 62.50 puts is about .35c - might even be a credit
--- still my view that AAPL get hammered in Q1 2006- lets watch and see what happens- it will come @ a time when everyone has given up on AAPL crashing and believes that rather than simply a great company w/ great management- it has become bulletproof from large corrections! It has not. At this point it will get hammered. Lots of profits to take in AAPL - and lots of taxes to avoid paying this year.
bought (4) March 60c @2.95
GTC order buying (4) @ 2.55
will enter 10-12 total @ <3
then sell ratio of January 60 or Feb 65c on mark up as I expect beginning 1/2/2006 - although given the gap lower it may take some time before NTES gains traction and begins moving >60-62
NTES could see <56 tomorrow via tax selling so I expect to be able to scale in to more March 60c
order working to sell 4 Jan 60c @ .95
PD
pleased it had a nice sell-off today allowing me to sell more Jan 40 puts and move closer to neutral - in my Jan backpread. Yesterday I closed - PD Jan 130p @ LOD = .40 (sold @ 1.90)
for profit = + 750
today --- re-sold the same (5) p for .725
PD
- 12 Jan 135p @ 217
- 7 Jan 14op @ 270
- 5 Jan 130p @ .725
+ 5 Jan 125p @ .45
- 1 Jan 145c @ 5.90 (will sell 1 more after PD moves above 146 -147 today)
+ 2 Jan 155c @ 1.65
AAPL
sold Jan 167.50p @ 1.35-140
+ 7 AAPL Jan 62.50p @ 2.31
- 7 AAPL Jan 67.50p @ 1.375
this is the third time I have rolled this spread beginning in December - so the basis on Jan 62.50 puts is about .35c - might even be a credit
--- still my view that AAPL get hammered in Q1 2006- lets watch and see what happens- it will come @ a time when everyone has given up on AAPL crashing and believes that rather than simply a great company w/ great management- it has become bulletproof from large corrections! It has not. At this point it will get hammered. Lots of profits to take in AAPL - and lots of taxes to avoid paying this year.
AAPL has a huge product rollout in Q1 with the introduction of Intel-powered Macs. Word is that the entire Mac-line will be running Intel by end of Q3. They're going to fix the bugs in the server-performance that has plagued AAPL from their introduction. Mac users love the powerbooks, but universally-agree that they're dramatically-underpowered with G4 chips. Imagine the demand for single or dual core powerbooks. Mac users will have the option of running windows as well.
I doubt they'll get any multiple-expansion, but you've got to assume that they'll see a healthy increase in market share. I don't know if it will begin another run higher, but its got a hell of a tailwind coming on Jan 5.
I doubt they'll get any multiple-expansion, but you've got to assume that they'll see a healthy increase in market share. I don't know if it will begin another run higher, but its got a hell of a tailwind coming on Jan 5.