iceman's options trading journal

[iceman1]

AAPL

day order buying 7 AAPL Jan 80c - $1.05 - may be a sucker bet like Hard 8 - but we will see.

In my view AAPL may have topped (= famous last words of traders since AAPL 50s who have traded against the trend)

IF filled will add on 5 more - looking to bear spread with 70 or 75 depending on post-expiry/year-end action.

Still long many Jan 70p and 62.50p which I have spread with Jan 65p/67.50puts - legged into -- minimal debits -- and thus- some nice upside IF AAPL get cracked in Jan 2006.

 

[iceman1]

Quote from iceman1:

+ 5 COP 57.50c @ 1.90
- 5 COP Jan 60c @ 87.50

order working to buy 10 more @ 1.65

bought 5 more COP Jan 57.50c @ 1.80 - that is I changed my order and lowered size- let's see if my slight impatience in not holding out for my price bites me- then again my plan was to buy when COP was pinned to 57.50 or so -

and in that regard it was a great call in waiting for 57.50 before entering - as --- don't forget COP was >61.40 on Monday Jan 12th.... so on balance my patience in waiting for the underlying to hit my price- usually will work out- I have found.

I 'think' COP has a good chance to at least fill the 12/13 gap (Tuesday) at $61 since there was more volume that day-- - then again it did not fill the gap from 12/12/05 -

--- so will it trade back to 64--- or leave both gaps unfilled - and head still lower?

Anyway -- volume and 2 unfilled small gaps were the ostensible reason for today's entry. But who knows what hedge/mutual fund sheep will do next week. This is like VLO which when it hit 95 ran up 16 points. My gut is- COP will at least trade back to 62.50 - but will it be from expiry levels or 55-ish?

it's closed below it's 200 day ema - so that is problematic!

 

[iceman1]

Quote from iceman1:

bought 5 more COP Jan 57.50c @ 1.80 - that is I changed my order and lowered size- let's see if my slight impatience in not holding out for my price bites me- then again my plan was to buy when COP was pinned to 57.50 or so -

and in that regard it was a great call in waiting for 57.50 before entering - as --- don't forget COP was >61.40 on Monday Jan 12th.... so on balance my patience in waiting for the underlying to hit my price- usually will work out- I have found.

I 'think' COP has a good chance to at least fill the 12/13 gap (Tuesday) at $61 since there was more volume that day-- - then again it did not fill the gap from 12/12/05 -

--- so will it trade back to 64--- or leave both gaps unfilled - and head still lower?

Anyway -- volume and 2 unfilled small gaps were the ostensible reason for today's entry. But who knows what hedge/mutual fund sheep will do next week. This is like VLO which when it hit 95 ran up 16 points. My gut is- COP will at least trade back to 62.50 - but will it be from expiry levels or 55-ish?

it's closed below it's 200 day ema - so that is problematic!

COP

excellent timing on my entry on Friday - gapped up to and printed @ 59.20

my +10 Jan06 57.50c were bid 2.70 - and was tempted to take it -- instead --- sold 5 Jan06 60c @ HOD = 1.40


bull spread
+ 10 57.50c (1.85)
- 10 60c (1.23)

-.62

may add Feb or Jan 62.50c on any PB into opening gap-- my thought is COP will be marked up to 62.50c by Jan epxiry-

 

[iceman1]

Quote from iceman1:

COP

excellent timing on my entry on Friday - gapped up to and printed @ 59.20

my +10 Jan06 57.50c were bid 2.70 - and was tempted to take it -- instead --- sold 5 Jan06 60c @ HOD = 1.40


bull spread
+ 10 57.50c (1.85)
- 10 60c (1.23)

-.62

may add Feb or Jan 62.50c on any PB into opening gap-- my thought is COP will be marked up to 62.50c by Jan epxiry-

sold 5 Jan 57.50c @2.85 (+500)
bought 5 Jan06 62.50c @.55

placed order to buy Feb06 55 puts @ .65 when stock was 59.40- not filled - intention is/was to sell Jan 57.50p after PB if any- to resolve today's gap.

looking to re-enter Jan 57.50c

 

[iceman1]

Quote from iceman1:

sold 4 mnx MW (Jan06 180p) @ 1.80

+4 mnx MX (172.50p) @3.80
- 4 mnx MW (167.50p) @1.80

- $2

sold 4 mnx MX (172.50p) @ 4.90 (+$440)

s/o -4 more mnx MW (Jan06 167.50p) @1.75

b/o +4 Feb mnx MW (167.50p) @ 3.10

bought +8 mnx AX (Jan06 172.50c) @.90 (order buying 4 more @.75)

day order placed selling 8 mnx AN (Jan 170c) @ 2.55


(I am short -5 mnx AW (Jan06 167.50c) @ 4.10 from a couple weeks ago - day order working to close @ 2.65)

 

[iceman1]

Quote from iceman1:

sold 4 mnx MX (172.50p) @ 4.90 (+$440)

s/o -4 more mnx MW (Jan06 167.50p) @1.75

b/o +4 Feb mnx MW (167.50p) @ 3.10

bought +8 mnx AX (Jan06 172.50c) @.90 (order buying 4 more @.75)

day order placed selling 8 mnx AN (Jan 170c) @ 2.55


(I am short -5 mnx AW (Jan06 167.50c) @ 4.10 from a couple weeks ago - day order working to close @ 2.65)

well I exited my 172.50 puts too soon - for $440 --- when I should have taken $720 out of the trade - particularly since I was short 8 of the Jan 167.50 puts -

this seems to be a pattern lately- I nail it and then can't sit tight until near the close when market is going my way with no sign of a reversal. I left $280 on the table on a FOUR lot as the bid hit 5.60 ( i exited @ 4.90).

But- did close 5 mnx AW (167.50c) @ 2.35 (+$825)

bought the other four (4) mnx AX (172.50c) @ .75

+12 mnx AX @avg = .85

not looking like a good move right now-- may have to construct a bear spread with Jan 170 calls - or better yet-- scratch the trade IF the bid is at or > .85 !

 

[iceman1]

Quote from iceman1:



already have position in

+ 10 Jan 170 Puts (3.60)
- 10 Dec 170p (2.20)

-$1.60

closed 1/2 dec 170p @ .55

closed the mnx XN (Dec 170p) for .20 avg. last week --- (8 epxired @ worthless Friday)

(pnl = +approx $1800)


bought 6 mnx NM (Feb06 165p) for avg = 2.50 - looking to bull spread with Jan 170p.

But due to today's post-expiry weakness decided to wait until tomorrow to see if I can get >$4.20 per - and to also re-think whether market has now topped and thus will not trade back to >170 (MNX)

 

[jackbyrd]

Sir, are you going to post the losing trades as well?

 

[iceman1]

Quote from jackbyrd:

Sir, are you going to post the losing trades as well?

Will post all trades when closed. While open I am not going to post unrealized pnl.

I have many many trades from past couple months that pre-date this Journal - some of them I mentioned on multi_options' thread "My Options Plays" such as on VLO and BBY and OVTI and AAPL etc. Most of these that are now closed- are profitable trades. There are a few that are still open that I am repairing and manangaing so as to protect captial -- and enhance expectancy.

However in 2006 - beginning 1/3/06 -- I plan to post each and every trade - and trading call!


Ice

 

[iceman1]

PD

twice missed a short entry- still think there is sufficient downside to enter this week. I have been recommending shorting PD on "My Options Plays" thread** for while now- but was hoping to see 147-150. Today's high was a good opportunity IMHO.

Rather than 145 puts - may now enter larger size on 135p

Anyone have an opnion on PD trading down to low 130s?


**((12-08-05 10:13 AM
one more
PD
watching PD carefully now for a short entry--- been trading it off and on since $78- now I think it time to start "looking" for a entry into back month puts - looking for at least a 10-12 point drop soon. my entry level will be 147-149))

Ice