iceman's options trading journal

APOL

-$7+

Deleted this stock from the universe. Will never trade it again.

I will not trade a company that warns even once. We had enough of that b.s. in the 90s - will not go through it again. No wonder their dishonorable scumbag CEO Nelson resigned suddenly --- rather than stay with a sinking ship. What a chicken-sh-t! Who ever heard of an 85 year old interim CEO?

Yep, that was a warning -- just like when a CFO resigns. We didn't heed it. So I'm another sucker at the APOL table.

I was expecting MARCH 16th (which is only SIXTEEN days away) as the reliable earnings date - thereby giving me enough time to strategize whether to strangle this stock or exit calls. But these maggots "warn'" now - a mere SIXTEEN days in front of earnings. It's inexplicable. Most warnings come sooner than two weeks before earnings dates. They just don't come at this juncture. g-damn it! :eek: :D

Just can't trust some companies - I saw it all through the 90s. Yep it's hard to have a trading plan if you can't rely on the underlying company to not pull this kind of B.S.

Didn't buy even ONE cheap put.

Total loss on 18 calls @ 1.35



Over the weekend Barrons' had the following (mind you these are the guys they interview and publish opinions from!) What a joke --- Barrons'!

Looks like "Shawn" is a bigger sucker than I am if he bought this so-called "value stock"!



27-Feb-06
04:52 Barron's interviews Shawn Kravetz of Esplanade Capital

>>>Shawn Kravetz, founder and president of Esplanade Capital, sees value in Apollo Group (APOL), Corinthian Colleges (COCO)...... blah blah blah
 
Sorry for the hit on APOL. At least with options you know the max damage coming in. How about the poor folks holding shares?

Ditto on the CEO/CFO resignation red flag. As Monty Python would say "Run away! Run away!"
 
Quote from hajimow:

To everyone:

I just have a gut feeling that we might see a big drop in GOOG in the next week. I just guess buying PUT 340 might not be a bad idea and selling it in the drop. Don't keep it till expiry. Maybe my gut is not functioning properly:confused:
More...


just saw your earlier post when I read novel's post!

damn hajimow-- I hope you stayed with your gut brother! Humphrey Neill would be proud of you if you did. :D

PM and let me know.
 
Quote from AmbushHillbilly:

Sorry for the hit on APOL. At least with options you know the max damage coming in. How about the poor folks holding shares?

Ditto on the CEO/CFO resignation red flag. As Monty Python would say "Run away! Run away!"
More...


thanks... !

... and yes options do limit your losses! I just feel like a sucker and that angers me more than the loss! :eek:

yep- CEO thingy was my red flag but I chose to ignore it. Those who choose to ignore history are doomed to repeat it and I KNOW from past experience that smoke leads to fire with regards to these kind of b.s. sudden "departures/resignations"!

have a good year...
 
Good call on the GOOG Put, too bad I didnt follow the advice! (+325% today), but at least I wasn't long either. :)

-- Paccc

Quote from hajimow:

To everyone:

I just have a gut feeling that we might see a big drop in GOOG in the next week. I just guess buying PUT 340 might not be a bad idea and selling it in the drop. Don't keep it till expiry. Maybe my gut is not functioning properly:confused:
More...
 
It seems that my gut is talking to me again. It says GOOG will open at $355 tomorrow (on Wednesday).:p
Let me tell you guys something about another matter. I was extremely sick and tired when I was seeing everyday an analyst is downgrading INTC based on a wrong assumption that they are losing market to AMD or the contracts are cancelled. INTC and AMD are both good companies and I am not comparing them. INTC has a huge problem now and that is it can not keep up with the demand and losing some money (from profit) because of that. All INTC fabs are working with over 100% capacity. INTC has started to surprise us and will do. It needs patience. A safe long and short term bet.
GOOG is also a great company but investors want to take it to the moon or to the hell.
When I think of Analysts,they remind me of BRE-X Mineral story (I think it was in 1998 or 1997) when 100% of analysts had buy rating on it and ........
Well I am not going to tell you what happened, go and search it on line. I lost a good amount of money on that and since then I have never followed analysts. Just my gut.
 
Quote from hajimow:

It seems that my gut is talking to me again. It says GOOG will open at $355 tomorrow (on Wednesday).:p
Let me tell you guys something about another matter. I was extremely sick and tired when I was seeing everyday an analyst is downgrading INTC based on a wrong assumption that they are losing market to AMD or the contracts are cancelled. INTC and AMD are both good companies and I am not comparing them. INTC has a huge problem now and that is it can not keep up with the demand and losing some money (from profit) because of that. All INTC fabs are working with over 100% capacity. INTC has started to surprise us and will do. It needs patience. A safe long and short term bet.
GOOG is also a great company but investors want to take it to the moon or to the hell.
When I think of Analysts,they remind me of BRE-X Mineral story (I think it was in 1998 or 1997) when 100% of analysts had buy rating on it and ........
Well I am not going to tell you what happened, go and search it on line. I lost a good amount of money on that and since then I have never followed analysts. Just my gut.
More...

might see some sideways on GOOG for a while. :confused:

ANALsyts are just one tool to use much as one might use sentiment indicators or put/call ratios or magazine covers or Barrons's stories and the like.

So did you manage to get into GOOG 340 puts?

If not this is the 2nd time you have had a strong feeling on GOOG. First time was the week of FEB expiry when you saw cheap Feb calls and wanted to get in some. They then traded from .50 to >5.

When you get a strong gut you owe it to yourself to at least buy some - even if you buy just ONE.
 
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