iceman's options trading journal

Quote from iceman1:

In fact one trader said that AAPL was going to have a BIG product "roll out" in January and that AAPl would make new highs! Said it right here on this Journal. Another trader told me in private many times not just once, that AAPl was NOT a short and would see 100.

Did I hear from him since AAPL hit 63? Nope! :D :D
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I pray for your sanity you're not referring to me. You got clipped for 15 handles after my AAPL post. If you recover from your delusions long enough to take a look at my time-stamp and the chart in the two weeks following my post.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=937809&highlight=aapl#post937809

hp
 
Quote from riskarb:

I pray for your sanity you're not referring to me. You got clipped for 15 handles after my AAPL post. If you recover from your delusions long enough to take a look at my time-stamp and the chart in the two weeks following my post.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=937809&highlight=aapl#post937809

hp
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sorry I didn't know you were so sensitive! :eek:

Just to clarify ----- my earlier comments on AAPL all along were, to-wit::

1. AAPL would "get hammered" AFTER earnings and see 65

2. I admitted I was "early". So what ? It's how you end up that counts, i.e. bottom line. Many great traders are early.

3. I was selling puts all the way up AND was long calls I sold calls all the way down. When I looked at the #s - I did well.

4. despite being "early" I was only short 400 shares of aapl @ approx 74.50 -- so that was a scratch since I re-shorted the shares after earnings to average the loss to b/e.

Have a good weekend bro! And don't worry - you are still the options King -- seriously - not being sarcastic.

I just want a "little" credit once in a while? LOL :D


best,
iceman1
:cool:
 
APOL

well --- APOL did trade back to 59+ as we discussed, and analyzed on another ET Journal (Brave New World)!

The analysis was right on so far as seeing the bullish engulfing pattern (on weekly chart) back on January 23rd as a key st reversal, and so far as the saying resistance would be the prior January lows, and the gap.

The stock did make a higher high on the weekly chart (but also closed lower) so I will hold my long calls (in all accounts) for now, with a tight leash looking for 62-65. Overall market strength (or lack thereof) will be a factor, I believe.

Fundamentals such as PE/PEG are also a factor in my bullish stance on this swing position, going into March 16th earnings release (before).

Other companies in the sector have reported fairly decent earnings, and seemed to indicate demand for their services remains high. Thus as a leader in the industry APOL is a value to some funds at these levels, IMHO -- and I believe the volume on January 9th was accumulation by smarter money while the sheep sold the "resignation of Nelson" news--- and thus will act as a precursor to APOL being marked still higher since we have not yet seen an increase in selling volume on the recent move.

I also think a new CEO (which may be soon) will act as a catalyst for higher prices. But this is the wild card since right now the 85 year old founder is running the company. Huh?!!

:eek: :confused:
 
journal thoughts for the long weekend


Market psychology has been a large component of my trading and my trading calls/ideas over the past 15 years. I always found Todd Harrison to be humble, introspective, restrained and thus a very good teacher for my style of trading. I have not been on his website in years so I don't know how he is doing currently, but I did follow him in the 90s on The Street.com.


"Respect the price action but never defer to it."

"A smart fella once said that you can pick the direction or you can pick the timing --- but you'll rarely nail both. That's why you must keep your wits about you. Listen, if you're choking on exposure and you can't think straight I've found that paring a bit and trading "in-between" has helped in the past. Further if you're focused on one position (or over-exposed) you'll miss the compelling opportunities when they arise---- THAT'S the double-whammy!"

"Identifying the prevalent psychology is a necesssary process when trading. It's not what IS --- it's what is PERCEIVED to be that matters."

... Todd Harrison
 
My mother is a Life Master bridge player yet she never attended college. She doesn't have an mba series 7 or finance or law degrees. But I bet she'd make a great trader.

Bridge is a great game. I am not very good since I have played so infrequently since taking evening classes at Francis W. Parker many years ago. But I recall a top drawer ET member back in 2003 urging me to improve my bridge skills, and to play games as a way to improve my trading performance. Apparently he is a very good player.

Anyway --- that is why I keep the following quote from Harrison on my desk. I suggest copying and enlarging & then posting it where it can be viewed each morning.


"Discipline Trumps Conviction"
 
Quote from iceman1:

02-15-06 12:41 PM

OIH/QM

trading BUY

suggest we get into OIL and OIH calls for st trade, and some FIB action.

SHORT term trade !

this is a tough call since OIL still selling off hard, and catching a lot of greedy perma longs by surprise. What's that saying about making money- and PIGS.

Further we still have the risk of lower PINs on index component. So maybe patience is in order until Friday.

But anyone entering OIH today has a 85-90% potential of having decent profits next week.

JMHO - could be wrong this time, obviously.

IcEmAnone
:cool:

2 16 06

let's be careful on this one !
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well that's what we get for changing our mind too quickly overnight and getting psyched out by expiry pressures. I should know better than to get shaken out on expiry Thursday/Friday!

The long OIH 130 calls (march) went up $3+ overnight. First thing I did was scratch them at b/e but then never got my price for re-entry

of course I am short OIH 150 puts @15.30 after being long March 145/140 from OIH 156 --- and now long 130/short 135 puts. So I am locked for ++$ with the intent to trade in and out of 150 puts as many times as the market will allow between now -- and March 16th. Almost got 250 per contract on Friday but OIH sold off near afternoon close. OIH is a great trading vehicle.

Gonna sit back and await another good entry for a st long.
 
hello iceman

I like your thoughts,

What do you mean OIH calls went up 3% ?

Went up 3% after fridays close?

I don't see it in the futures
 
Quote from coolweb:

hello iceman

I like your thoughts,

What do you mean OIH calls went up 3% ?

Went up 3% after fridays close?

I don't see it in the futures
More...

TY

$3+ per call (not 3%)

I was in OIH CF at 9.52 when OIH traded to 132-133 on Wednesday --- then OIH rebounded overnight and the calls which traded as low as $8/820 --- proceeded to hit 11.50 at Friday's open.

I was also in April QM at 5980 (after taking a loss in March QM) and did not scale into more then got out at 6047, and waited for a PB. Not great trading - to be right on after having waited patiently for QM to hit <60 -- but then miss some easy oversold pickings by premature ejaculation.

Actually I was influenced by another trader in exiting my oil positions - something I try very hard not to do.
 
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