Iceland study suggests half of COVID carriers asymptomatic yet infectious

[Turveyd]

it is widely known that tests are widely available. Some with 45 min turnaround times. China tested people while they wait. The WHO has an approved test. And there are many others available. We are not using them in the USA. i suppose its because our president is a JACKASS. That's precisely the reason our only option is social distancing and shelter in place! We only test those who are already showing symptoms and the turn around is days. Germany is doing over 300,000 tests a day. You need masks for everyone and tests for everyone then you won't need to shut down the entire country. The USA is led by JACKASS!
And to make matters worse we were told initially not to wear masks!!! This is what happens when you elect a mental case to run the country.

Tests are only if your trying to eradicate it, I don't believe you can eradicate it, so I'm with Trumpy on this strangely, if you try to do that, you'll still be fighting it and locking down in 10years time.

Talking entire population pretty much daily for this to work for years to come with your borders shut, until there is ZERO infections in your Country then only unlocking when there are ZERO infections for some time in the world.

Plague and a 50% mortality rate YES you'd have to do that, but C19 with tiny mortality rate hell no!

Masks where WHO being stupid not Trumpy, he just followed there so called expertise.

China just done hard lock downs, there getting it back, repeat repeat repeat until most of the population has, the effect is starting to cause food shortage, looting and way more deaths than C19 is capable of.

 

[piezoe]

Tests are only if your trying to eradicate it, I don't believe you can eradicate it, so I'm with Trumpy on this strangely, if you try to do that, you'll still be fighting it and locking down in 10years time.

Talking entire population pretty much daily for this to work for years to come with your borders shut, until there is ZERO infections in your Country then only unlocking when there are ZERO infections for some time in the world.

Plague and a 50% mortality rate YES you'd have to do that, but C19 with tiny mortality rate hell no!

Masks where WHO being stupid not Trumpy, he just followed there so called expertise.

China just done hard lock downs, there getting it back, repeat repeat repeat until most of the population has, the effect is starting to cause food shortage, looting and way more deaths than C19 is capable of.

so I'm with Trumpy on this strangely,

its not strange. It's what i would expect . so send your resume to the Jackass and he'll no doubt hire you as "ACTING Head of U.S. CoVid Mitigation." You're all Jackasses.

 

[Turveyd]

its not strange. It's what i would expect . so send your resume to the Jackass and he'll no doubt hire you as "ACTING Head of U.S. CoVid Mitigation." You're all Jackasses.

Not a Trumpy supporter infact more of a hater, so it's strange.

We'll see who's the jack ass soon I suspect.

It's not like the UK ( See other thread ) give a shit about old people dying in OAP homes, seems France is doing the same just included loads of OAP deaths from homes.

 

[piezoe]

This should disperse some rumors I've seen here running rampant about the spread of the disease & the amount of people who may be carriers:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/01/europe/iceland-testing-coronavirus-intl/index.html
Iceland lab's testing suggests 50% of coronavirus cases have no symptoms

(CNN)There's a lot about Iceland that other countries could envy: Its spectacular natural surroundings, its place among the world's happiest countries, and, now, its large-scale testing for the novel coronavirus, which could influence how the world understands the outbreak.

Experts have said comprehensive testing is key to controlling coronavirus, and creating a more accurate picture of the spread of Covid-19. This island-nation of 360,000 is doing just that.

As of Tuesday, Iceland had tested more than 17,900 people for the virus -- nearly 5% of its population. And while its National University Hospital tests people who are high-risk or show symptoms, nearly half of Iceland's tests have been conducted by biopharma company deCODE Genetics, focusing on the the wider population.

Crucially, deCODE's "screening program accepts everybody who is not showing symptoms and not currently in quarantine," Iceland's Directorate of Health said in a statement, adding that Iceland-based company was doing it on the behalf of the Chief Epidemiologist and the health agency.

What have been the main findings?
DeCODE, a subsidiary of US biotech company Amgen, has so far tested about 9,000 self-selected people.
"The results of the additional tests performed by deCODE have given an indication that efforts to limit the spread of the virus have been effective so far," the government wrote last week, adding "testing in the general population will continue to elicit a much clearer picture of the actual spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in Iceland."
Some of the revelations have been stark. Although fewer than 1% of the tests came back positive for the virus, the company's founder Dr. Kári Stefánsson told CNN that around 50% of those who tested positive said they were asymptomatic, confirming multiple studies that show that asymptomatic, or mildly symptomatic, people have played an important role in spreading the virus.

"What it means in my mind, is that because we are screening the general population, we are catching people early in the infection before they start showing symptoms," Stefánsson said.

"Keep in mind that the screening is now randomized, but voluntary so there is some bias in the data," the Directorate of Health said in a statement, adding that a "randomized screening program has started and a blood serum screening for antibodies is planned."

The work has also helped researchers to visualize the spread of the virus. "We can determine the geographic origin of the virus in every single [virus] in Iceland," he said, adding there are specific, minor mutations for the virus that came from Italy, Austria and the UK. "There was one that is specific to the west coast of the United States," he added.

Stefánsson wonders whether mutations in the virus are "responsible, in some way, for how differently people respond to it -- some just develop a mild cold, while some people need a respirator," or whether a person's genetics dictates their condition.
"Or is it a combination of these two?" he asks.

His company is in a better position than most to answer that question, as it already has the medical and genotype data of nearly half of Iceland's population.
Why has Iceland chosen not to implement a lockdown?

Iceland has yet to take many of the draconian measures seen across Europe and Asia of state-wide lockdowns, though the island country has banned gatherings of 20 people or more and closed secondary and tertiary schools.

Officials say more restrictive measures haven't been needed because they were better prepared and armed with data to track the virus.
"Testing and contact tracing are one of the key reasons why a lockdown has not been considered necessary up to this point," its Directorate of Health said in a statement to CNN.

"There is also another reason, no less important, we have pursued a very aggressive policy of quarantine for individuals -- suspected to be at risk of having contracted the virus -- for much longer and at a higher scale than most other countries we are aware of."

Iceland began testing its population in early February, weeks before its first coronavirus-related death, Stefánsson said, adding that health officials have aggressively contact-traced and quarantined confirmed and suspected Covid-19 cases.

Government data shows that there are 1,086 confirmed infections in Iceland and 927 people currently in isolation, while more than 5,000 have left quarantine.
"The only reason that we are doing better is that we were even more vigilant," he said. "We took seriously the news of an epidemic starting in China. We didn't shrug our shoulders and say, 'this is not going to be anything remarkable.'"

Stefánsson expects the company to test at least 50,000 people -- around 13% of the population -- before the virus has run its course.

"It is extraordinarily important to know what the distribution in the society in general is because when you're designing measures to contain the virus," health officials need to know if the virus is running rampant through the community or circulating among clusters, he said.

Iceland has not been immune to supply shortages. Stefánsson said there were problems obtaining swabs for the tests, but these have since been rectified.
Could they provide a roadmap for other countries?

He says Iceland could help countries develop models for the spread of the disease, or to help researchers understand community transmissions.

Many have observed that Iceland's small population helps it to helps it to carry out widescale testing, but Stefánsson disagrees. "It's nothing to do with the size of the population, this has to do with how well prepared it was" for the pandemic, he says.
He adds that many developed countries have an "amazing collection of talent" who could have "industrialized tests like this a long time ago" but "behaved like nothing was happening."

Germany could test all of Iceland in one day! They have been doing over 300K tests per day for quite some time. They wear masks. They identify infectious individuals very early, they quarantine them, they follow positives closely and get them into the hospital quickly if their are advance signs of deterioration (They do blood tests to evaluate). And they haven't had to shut done the country. But they have shut down what they call public life. Rock concerts, discos, etc., any large gathering and are practicing appropriate distancing. They are still working though. Current death rate there is ~1.3%, and I think that is accurate because you know germans are rather law abiding and sticklers when it comes to keeping track of things. They test so many that they have a very good handle on the number of asymptomatic but infectious -- they get quarantined immediately and will suffer the symptoms after the incubation period with the same probabilities as those who have already gone on to develop symptoms. The largest number get only mild symptoms -- true everywhere. The Germans are also planning a large antibody study.

I don't know when Iceland started testing but I doubt they were the first to adopt widespread testing. That was probably China, but of course it is unrealistic to think that China, being first, could ramp up to test a billion people fast enough to do them much good. But I imagine they are still engaged in ramping testing up. I think both South Korea and Germany are the best models we have for how to Tackle this Virus until a vaccine is ready. Using plasma antibodies from those who have recovered is a promising therapy for the gravely ill, just not enough available at present.

The U.S. had plenty of warning to get masks and testing ramped up, but was asleep at the switch. The leadership in the U.S. has been abysmal, and that's an understatement.

 

[southall]

Current death rate there is ~1.3%, and I think that is accurate because you know germans are rather law abiding and sticklers when it comes to keeping track of things. They test so many that they have a very good handle on the number of asymptomatic but infectious -- they get quarantined immediately and will suffer the symptoms after the incubation period with the same probabilities as those who have already gone on to develop symptoms. The largest number get only mild symptoms -- true everywhere. The Germans are also planning a large antibody study.

I read that the vast majority of Germany's infected are under the age of 60. And the death rate is still 1.3%. And they are not missing many infected people by the sound of things.

 

[Cuddles]

Germany could test all of Iceland in one day! They have been doing over 300K tests per day for quite some time. They wear masks. They identify infectious individuals very early, they quarantine them, they follow positives closely and get them into the hospital quickly if their are advance signs of deterioration (They do blood tests to evaluate). And they haven't had to shut done the country. But they have shut down what they call public life. Rock concerts, discos, etc., any large gathering and are practicing appropriate distancing. They are still working though. Current death rate there is ~1.3%, and I think that is accurate because you know germans are rather law abiding and sticklers when it comes to keeping track of things. They test so many that they have a very good handle on the number of asymptomatic but infectious -- they get quarantined immediately and will suffer the symptoms after the incubation period with the same probabilities as those who have already gone on to develop symptoms. The largest number get only mild symptoms -- true everywhere. The Germans are also planning a large antibody study.

I don't know when Iceland started testing but I doubt they were the first to adopt widespread testing. That was probably China, but of course it is unrealistic to think that China, being first, could ramp up to test a billion people fast enough to do them much good. But I imagine they are still engaged in ramping testing up. I think both South Korea and Germany are the best models we have for how to Tackle this Virus until a vaccine is ready. Using plasma antibodies from those who have recovered is a promising therapy for the gravely ill, just not enough available at present.

The U.S. had plenty of warning to get masks and testing ramped up, but was asleep at the switch. The leadership in the U.S. has been abysmal, and that's an understatement.

Iceland's study is the 1st one I've seen where a large component of the population (percentage wise) had been tested. I am aware S. Korea & other countries have tested millions, though don't know what their population percentage that entails.

Germany also has a physicist that understands exponential growth as a chancellor

 

[tommcginnis]

Gentlemen:
There are TWO tests relevant here -- one for testing whether the virus is in your blood. For this, you may be symptomatic or asymptomatic, but the virus bits will still be detectable in your blood, nasal drips, coughs, skin sloughs, pooh, etc.

THE OTHER TEST though, is WHETHER YOU HAVE ANTIBODIES -- in other words, whether you have already HAD the virus, and have cleared it from your body. Whether you were symptomatic (and knew you were sick) or asymptomatic (and had no idea), those antibodies would remain with you. THIS IS THE MISSING NUMBER THAT INVALIDATES JUST ABOUT EVERY STATISTICAL CLAIM ABOUT CoVID-19 THAT YOU'VE HEARD THUS FAR. And this is what deCode has done/is doing in Iceland. None of you understood this. (All of you should be seeing that "jackass" looking back from the mirror.)

Although anyone with a statistical brain-cell notes this oh-so-quietly, it seems that only MIT, Yale, and now Stanford have anybody willing to bleat out this simple observation...
"Your denominator is fuqued.":
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/nobody-knows-the-number.342769/

 

[Cuddles]

Gentlemen:
There are TWO tests relevant here -- one for testing whether the virus is in your blood. For this, you may be symptomatic or asymptomatic, but the virus bits will still be detectable in your blood, nasal drips, coughs, skin sloughs, pooh, etc.

THE OTHER TEST though, is WHETHER YOU HAVE ANTIBODIES -- in other words, whether you have already HAD the virus, and have cleared it from your body. Whether you were symptomatic (and knew you were sick) or asymptomatic (and had no idea), those antibodies would remain with you. THIS IS THE MISSING NUMBER THAT INVALIDATES JUST ABOUT EVERY STATISTICAL CLAIM ABOUT CoVID-19 THAT YOU'VE HEARD THUS FAR.

Although anyone with a statistical brain-cell notes this oh-so-quietly, it seems that only MIT, Yale, and now Stanford have anybody willing to bleat out this simple observation...
"Your denominator is fuqued.":
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/nobody-knows-the-number.342769/

except we know the recovery & hospitalization rate in the field and we have such tools as extrapolation in statistics.

 

[southall]

THE OTHER TEST though, is WHETHER YOU HAVE ANTIBODIES -- in other words, whether you have already HAD the virus, and have cleared it from your body. Whether you were symptomatic (and knew you were sick) or asymptomatic (and had no idea), those antibodies would remain with you. THIS IS THE MISSING NUMBER THAT INVALIDATES JUST ABOUT EVERY STATISTICAL CLAIM ABOUT CoVID-19 THAT YOU'VE HEARD THUS FAR.

The antibody tests wont prove anything significant.
Countries like South Korea has been mass testing people for the actual virus for a long time. They would have been seeing a lot more as asymptotic infections, if there was a large pool out there will antibodies, that pool will have been positive for the virus at some stage. The ratio of 2:1 is pretty consistent for a long time.

 

[tommcginnis]

And thus the bleating went on.