I see a few errors. For starters, you claim you booked a credit of $1.56 on the initial position, but in your "what if" scenarios, you then claim:
=====
What happens to this positions in 7 days when the options expire? Let’s look at 4 possibilities. 1. TLT price is 115.50 a. The 119 sold call expires worthless b. The 121.5 bought call expires worthless c. The 119 sold put costs $3.50 to buy back d. The 116.50 bought put can be sold for $1.00 The position losses $2.00 from buying the 119 put and selling the 116.5 put, but remember the position was sold for $1.38. Actual loss $2.00-$1.56= .42 loss. (This is the width of the spread minus the credit received).
=====
That should be $2.50, not a $2 buyback, and the loss should be $0.94, not $0.42 (which in itself is wrong, it should have read $0.44 . . . but really $0.94.)
Dig in and fix the math. Then we can talk about your "adjustment" which apparently relies on a reversal in the underlying.