In the same week you start. Come on!
Dont'trade the DAX
mini Dow for now....
READ CAREFULLY this trading technique:
http://www.cbot.com/cbot/docs/59376.pdf
Lorenzo
I´m very worried
- Thread starter cataloniafree
- Start date
In the same week you start. Come on!
Dont'trade the DAX
mini Dow for now....
READ CAREFULLY this trading technique:
http://www.cbot.com/cbot/docs/59376.pdf
Lorenzo
Lorenzo,
Does Dr. Clayburgs method still work? Have you tweaked it at all?
Michael B.
Does Dr. Clayburgs method still work? Have you tweaked it at all?
Michael B.
Ok Lorenzo thank you four your answers.
I don´t know very much to Minidow because i ´m from Spain,and isn´t habituall trade the Dow
The next week i said you the experience.
I don´t know very much to Minidow because i ´m from Spain,and isn´t habituall trade the Dow
The next week i said you the experience.
IF you want to stick to Eurex, ESTX50 is the least risky and good to learn on.
The timeframe depends on your risk-tolerance/equity. E.g., you shouldn't trade 1h charts with 3k capital. Your risk per trade will almost always be >2% of your capital.
Put all your thinking when markets are closed. Develop a system, and trade it no-questions-asked during market hours. Switch off CNBC.
"I it have proved almost everything, systems, strategies with risk / remuneration 1/3, with 1/1 trying(meaning) that the fiability was high, scalpping,etc
But I do not manage to start gaining money."
I think we all go around feeling that we are world-class hedge fund managers, placed on Earth to receive the Wall St Nobel prize for our brilliant systems. In reality, the hodgepodge of opinions which make up the market do not lend themselves well to technical analysis or any kind of precise forecasting. Market tide and volatility come out of nowhere and ruin our plans. 90% reliable systems fail to mean-revert even when at extremes. Day after day Mother Market punishes us and sends us to our room without dinner. The level of demoralization and grief after a losing month makes us question our intelligence and sanity for staying in this game.
Once I stopped taking my systems and losses personally, I could place a hard line in the sand and stick to risk management. This means that no matter what my system or my prediction is, I plan for EVERY scenario, and follow my exit plan, to the letter. Prepare for war in times of peace.
Pretend like you're really just betting on the weather. If it starts raining, just get out, and come back another day. If the stock turns on you, it's not the best time for a trade anyway. You can re-enter the stock if you still believe it is a great trade, but after 3 times, just concede that it's a rainy day.
When you said above that you have "proved almost everything", it is like saying that you proved tomorrow's weather.
Proper statistical analysis of the past is all we have. All the TA, fundamentals, standard deviations etc are just measurements of the past. One will develop intuitive senses for probability with experience, but over-reliance on our Great abilities usually just buys us a high-priced Ego. But even the best analysis of the past does not guarantee the future.
Draw a 100 period linear regression with a 3 standard deviation amplitude. Draw another 20 period linear regression with a 3 standard deviation amplitude on the same chart. Write an indicator which computes the 5 and 10 bar volatility. Adjust the time frames from weekly, daily, 15min, 5min, 1min. Step through the chart one period at a time. What are the results of trading only at the channel extremes with a stop based on the period volatility? Are your results better than this? If not, then you have placed a lot more faith in your clairvoyance than in the Law of Probability.
In the end, a humble, disciplined, and consistent submission to risk management is our best investment.
Take your ego, pride, and self-esteem OUT of your trading. Become a dummie. Pick up the for-dummies series of books on Statistics and Probability. Let the histograms, standard deviations, and standard errors design your systems. Learn to trade like a dummy. Hey dummy, you and I are really not so great as we think.
If you wanna do something great, buy a little girl an ice cream cone.
But I do not manage to start gaining money."
I think we all go around feeling that we are world-class hedge fund managers, placed on Earth to receive the Wall St Nobel prize for our brilliant systems. In reality, the hodgepodge of opinions which make up the market do not lend themselves well to technical analysis or any kind of precise forecasting. Market tide and volatility come out of nowhere and ruin our plans. 90% reliable systems fail to mean-revert even when at extremes. Day after day Mother Market punishes us and sends us to our room without dinner. The level of demoralization and grief after a losing month makes us question our intelligence and sanity for staying in this game.
Once I stopped taking my systems and losses personally, I could place a hard line in the sand and stick to risk management. This means that no matter what my system or my prediction is, I plan for EVERY scenario, and follow my exit plan, to the letter. Prepare for war in times of peace.
Pretend like you're really just betting on the weather. If it starts raining, just get out, and come back another day. If the stock turns on you, it's not the best time for a trade anyway. You can re-enter the stock if you still believe it is a great trade, but after 3 times, just concede that it's a rainy day.
When you said above that you have "proved almost everything", it is like saying that you proved tomorrow's weather.
Proper statistical analysis of the past is all we have. All the TA, fundamentals, standard deviations etc are just measurements of the past. One will develop intuitive senses for probability with experience, but over-reliance on our Great abilities usually just buys us a high-priced Ego. But even the best analysis of the past does not guarantee the future.
Draw a 100 period linear regression with a 3 standard deviation amplitude. Draw another 20 period linear regression with a 3 standard deviation amplitude on the same chart. Write an indicator which computes the 5 and 10 bar volatility. Adjust the time frames from weekly, daily, 15min, 5min, 1min. Step through the chart one period at a time. What are the results of trading only at the channel extremes with a stop based on the period volatility? Are your results better than this? If not, then you have placed a lot more faith in your clairvoyance than in the Law of Probability.
In the end, a humble, disciplined, and consistent submission to risk management is our best investment.
Take your ego, pride, and self-esteem OUT of your trading. Become a dummie. Pick up the for-dummies series of books on Statistics and Probability. Let the histograms, standard deviations, and standard errors design your systems. Learn to trade like a dummy. Hey dummy, you and I are really not so great as we think.
If you wanna do something great, buy a little girl an ice cream cone.
How do you determine your targets?...did I miss that in the publication?
late edit
found it...20 pt target...
late edit
found it...20 pt target...
Cataloniafree,
I'm not sure whether this will help. Under Journals, there is a person named 4re. He has a journal titled 'S/R emini journal' and is very helpful. However, he trades es emini only. You might want to take a look at the journal to see whether it will help.
Sorry I did not post the link here as I do not know how.
Good luck.
I'm not sure whether this will help. Under Journals, there is a person named 4re. He has a journal titled 'S/R emini journal' and is very helpful. However, he trades es emini only. You might want to take a look at the journal to see whether it will help.
Sorry I did not post the link here as I do not know how.
Good luck.
Lorenzo,
Interesting system....hmmmm. lets see... the open is at 8:00 est and a 5 min chart is used and its 5 bucks a tick....
Do you use 9:20 (est) or 9:40 (est) for the time line or have you tweaked that?
I assume if the target is not hit you exit at close....If I remember correctly the CBOT closes this instrument at 17:00 (est) right?
Michael B.
P.S. have you tested the two stochastic settings for good entries?
P.P.S. On fed days do you trade this?
P.P.S. have you tried a scaled approach at 1.5 times the average daily ATR? sorry just brainstorming...I gotta' take a closer look at this..
Interesting system....hmmmm. lets see... the open is at 8:00 est and a 5 min chart is used and its 5 bucks a tick....
Do you use 9:20 (est) or 9:40 (est) for the time line or have you tweaked that?
I assume if the target is not hit you exit at close....If I remember correctly the CBOT closes this instrument at 17:00 (est) right?
Michael B.
P.S. have you tested the two stochastic settings for good entries?
P.P.S. On fed days do you trade this?
P.P.S. have you tried a scaled approach at 1.5 times the average daily ATR? sorry just brainstorming...I gotta' take a closer look at this..