I wrote an algorithm that will give you a stock that will make .5% the next day...BUT

lindq · Oct 22, 2010

Quote from selrod0324:

Any daytrader would give is left nut to make 0.5% a day

Well, again, not to burst your bubble, but you aren't talking even in your dreams about a .5% daily return. Your very preliminary testing showed the possibility of that return on stocks traded. Which is far from a daily return.

In reality - if you should make it to reality - there will be many days with no trades. Possibly even weeks. And that's something that no backtesting or even forward testing can predict, because in this regard the overall market is your master.

If, for example, overall volatilty in the market dies, then you are dead in the water. So at some point in your testing you are also going to want to involve some market metrics in the mix.

selrod0324 · Oct 22, 2010

Quote from lindq:

Well, again, not to burst your bubble, but you aren't talking even in your dreams about a .5% daily return. Your very preliminary testing showed the possibility of that return on stocks traded. Which is far from a daily return.

In reality - if you should make it to reality - there will be many days with no trades. Possibly even weeks. And that's something that no backtesting or even forward testing can predict.

Of course, I was referring to him thinking a 0.5% daily return would be a bad thing....its completely unrealistic of course.

Yes agreed.

intradaybill · Oct 22, 2010

Quote from selrod0324:

Lol then do it, (you clearly have no idea what you are talking about).

a 0.5% daily return would be quite impressive....do you realize what kind of return that is?

You have to be trolling, you can't be so stupid...it's not possible

Any daytrader would give is left nut to make 0.5% a day

You confuse stock volatility with trading gains.

A 5-day ATR will predict with high probability whether a certain move can take place next day.

The thing is you are too naive, too new in this business, too silly, too arrogant to learn and too insulting to have any future in anything. Your attitude is a loser's attitude.

krazykarl · Oct 22, 2010

Quote from selrod0324:

Lol then do it, (you clearly have no idea what you are talking about).

a 0.5% daily return would be quite impressive....do you realize what kind of return that is?

You have to be trolling, you can't be so stupid...it's not possible

Any daytrader would give is left nut to make 0.5% a day

no, a %0.5 is anything but impressive.

collective2.com

go learn something at collective.

peilthetraveler · Oct 22, 2010

Quote from selrod0324:

Table of my data.

1st column is the day I projected. 2nd column is the day I projected it would gain at least 0.5%. 3rd column is the most percent gain at its highest point that day, 4th column is the lowest point.

this was for the period of May1 - Auguest 20th. Note there are 5 more negatives that i could not get into screenshot. I have ordered by highest gain.

First off...way too many decimal points in there. We really dont need to see to nearest billionth of a percent. Anyway...just by crunching those numbers on my 10-key and assuming that every stock was exactly the same price and assuming you pay zero in commission, I estimate that for every $100 you make you lose $137 with that spreadsheet data you posted (and thats not including the 5 big losses that you couldnt fit into the screenshot) So really thats about a 37% loss over those trades.

Thats of course if my finger didnt slip up when keying in that information on my 10-key. You will get an exact result if you type into column C61 and D61 the code "=sum(C1:C60)" in the C column and "=sum(D1

60)" in the D column. Then in E61 type "=sum(C61-D:61)" If the number is positive, you made money. If its negative (which i think it is) you lost money.

Bob111 · Oct 22, 2010

Quote from selrod0324:

Lol then do it, (you clearly have no idea what you are talking about).

a 0.5% daily return would be quite impressive....do you realize what kind of return that is?

You have to be trolling, you can't be so stupid...it's not possible

Any daytrader would give is left nut to make 0.5% a day

are talking about 0.5% per trade or 0.5% per day on whole account?

which stocks you are talking about? how liquid they are? how many trades per day? i wouldn't place all of my money in one trade. it's suicidal in terms of money management. you short->stock halted->next trade 50-150% up, cause somebody bought the whole company..
if i was you-i would run a backtest based on stock777 numbers. they seems more reasonable\realistic\practical. or just replace them with variables to find optimal numbers.

selrod0324 · Oct 22, 2010

The problem is that somehow it has got misinterpreted that I said this WOULD work. I have put numerous constraints which I have said are yet to be tested and optimized before it could even be truly tested for feasibility.

Also for who asked, I am talking about 0.5% gain per day

Bob111 · Oct 22, 2010

Quote from selrod0324:

Also for who asked, I am talking about 0.5% gain per day

i'm still confused..0.5% per day on whole account? how many trades per day? how liquid those stocks,you are planning to trade? given current "liquidity" driven by crazy algos in many cases even $10K order can move the price far more than 0.5%. not in your favor off course.

selrod0324 · Oct 22, 2010

Quote from Bob111:

i'm still confused..0.5% per day on whole account? how many trades per day? how liquid those stocks,you are planning to trade? given current "liquidity" driven by crazy algos in many cases even $10K order can move the price far more than 0.5%. not in your favor off course.

This algorithm is designed for are for high volume stocks and very 'wet' stocks where selling $50,000 worth would not even be noticed

Speciaul_K · Oct 23, 2010

Quote from selrod0324:

First off, my background is not economics or related to stock it all; it is Applied Physics and Computer Science; so any naivety comes in regard to economics from pure ignorance.

I'm currently using yahoo stock quote API for datafeeds for acquiring approximately minute by minute data for all stocks on the Nasdaq and NYSE.

I then inject this into a SQL database were I have algorithms that essentially analyzes the entire NASDAQ and NYSE data from the previous day and spits out a stock which will make 0.5% the next day. Running this algorithm against historical data from 8-20-2009 through 8-19-2010, I was right 135 out of 187 times (or 72.19% of the time...) [note that I do not take into account Mondays or days after holidays]

The HUGE caveat is that while 72% of the time I am guaranteed to make money if I put a limit order at 0.5%, I also have to put a lower limit order not to lose alot of money as while its highly likely to gain 0.5%; it will also throughout the day be very highly likely to drop a few % ....

Tradestation.com ??