I would like to discuss averaging down

[Daring]

Quote from riffrafffpatrol:

A vehicle that doesn't require a stop loss? Do you seriously think that exists?

This is equivalent to someone saying-- "you've got to find those areas on earth that don't have gravity".... and then asking "can you be more specific on those exact locations?" LOL

The exact center of the Earth has zero gravity. Here is why.

The force of gravity on some test mass of mass m located at distance r from the center of the Earth is given by F = G M m/r^2

Here M is the total mass *inside* the sphere of radius r. So if we are at the surface of the Earth or higher up than M = M_Earth.

Let's call the mass inside of r, M(r). Let's reduce r. The total mass inside the sphere of radius r will reduce too. Assuming the Earth has uniform density d the mass M(r)=d * volume of sphere = d * (4pi/3) r^3.

So M(r) = constant *r^3 and F(r)= G M(r) m/r^2 = G constant *r^3/r^2.

Therefore F(r) is proportional to r, and will be zero in the center of the Earth.

 

[riffrafffpatrol]

Quote from Daring:

The exact center of the Earth has zero gravity. Here is why.

The force of gravity on some test mass of mass m located at distance r from the center of the Earth is given by F = G M m/r^2

Here M is the total mass *inside* the sphere of radius r. So if we are at the surface of the Earth or higher up than M = M_Earth.

Let's call the mass inside of r, M(r). Let's reduce r. The total mass inside the sphere of radius r will reduce too. Assuming the Earth has uniform density d the mass M(r)=d * volume of sphere = d * (4pi/3) r^3.

So M(r) = constant *r^3 and F(r)= G M(r) m/r^2 = G constant *r^3/r^2.

Therefore F(r) is proportional to r, and will be zero in the center of the Earth.

Great comeback Daring LOL!

OK... the more scientifically correct scenario would be:

Statement: "You've got to find those areas on earth that don't have gravity-- it's an amazing experience once you do" and then asking:

"Can you be more specific on exact locations...? I'd like to visit them and experience them as well."

LOL

The point is Daring-- you've got to at least get to the level where you can immediately filter out what is worth further consideration for keeping an open mind... and what most certainly is not.

 

[WS_MJH]

When I see people advocating averaging down, it's pretty obvious that they don't have a good, winning strategy. Instead of trying to constantly pull a rabbit out of a hat, spend time developing a better trading system.

 

[SatMir]

Quote from WS_MJH:

When I see people advocating averaging down, it's pretty obvious that they don't have a good, winning strategy. Instead of trying to constantly pull a rabbit out of a hat, spend time developing a better trading system.

Then you must be a trillioner

 

[Pension_Admin]

Why not do a Monte Carlo simulation to find out the answer? The technology is there in Microsoft Office in your computer.

 

[ammo]

Quote from riffrafffpatrol:

This may be the most comprehensive post of bad advice I have ever seen... on soooooo many levels that my head is spinning on where to even begin...

Is this meant to be some kind of sick joke trader?

his post was wise but you are 1 in amillion if you can be disciplined,cheap enough to save every dime and pay cash,long only options ,you know your limited risk going in,when you said in another post that it took two years to learn candlesticks and another post empirical pivots,you are still new to the game and should withhold judgement, a little knowledge is a dangerous thing,don't be anxious to beat your chest,learn to never beat your chest

 

[oldtime]

Quote from Pension_Admin:

Why not do a Monte Carlo simulation to find out the answer? The technology is there in Microsoft Office in your computer.

one thing you will probably find out is how much stops hurt you

there are plenty of studies not on averaging down, but dollar cost averaging, and it is surprising the conflicting views by people I assume are pretty smart and have no dog in the fight other than pride in their math

 

[riffrafffpatrol]

Quote from ammo:

his post was wise but you are 1 in amillion if you can be disciplined,cheap enough to save every dime and pay cash,long only options ,you know your limited risk going in,when you said in another post that it took two years to learn candlesticks and another post empirical pivots,you are still new to the game and should withhold judgement, a little knowledge is a dangerous thing,don't be anxious to beat your chest,learn to never beat your chest

ammo... u surprise me... u really do.

"Wise"? If u can't spot the glaring egregious reckless comments in his posts... I am floored... truly.


P.S. I have been trading for just over 23 years actively now... fyi. How about you?

 

[riffrafffpatrol]

Quote from riffrafffpatrol:

Dustin-- when I speak of supply.. I am referring to resistance. However when one thinks of resistance-- they think in terms of absolutes. Rarely does a resistance line play out to the penny. That's why it is prudent to look at zones-- areas where price has a high probability of reversing. Not all zones are valid however. And not all valid zones hold up. However-- all zones provide a reference point with which to trade against. Your trade did not. One does not need to backtest this or read it somewhere to figure this out.

You simply were shorting and shorting and shorting as price continued to go against you.

AFTER price turned.... it revisited the new supply area-- now you have a valid reference point area with high probablity of a reversal.

Look at some of my posts to logicman in my history.. I gave numerous examples.

Your trade generated a very minimal profit. Going in full position against a pivot reference point allows for maximizing gains.. all the while maintaining risk at 1R if done properly. The risk:reward here was easily 1:2/1:3... yours was no where close. If I'm wrong.. I am out... the first stop is the cheapest.

You still havent answered the question I posed earlier-- how far would you have let price go against you... and how many more adds would you have made-- before you threw in the towel?

Bump-- Dustin...?

 

[Daring]

Ammo,

You have kindly and clearly explained how you use a combination of trendlines and market profile peaks and low points to gather confluential areas of resistance, to short, and confluential areas of support, to cover or reduce.

In a discussion board where profitable traders tend to use secrecy or disguise to explain their success you are completely the opposite, transparent, helpful and caring, for that you must be commended.

At the same time, you have all also expressed efficiently and unequivocally how the downside is faster and how the upside tends to have less monstrous moves. For instance, we have heard of Black Swans but not of "White" Swans, if I may call them that. You have even discussed your money management and risk management, once again, thank you for taking the time,

However, here's the part I can't figure out yet because I think it has not been explained, if it has, I apologize before hand.

Have you tried shorting resistance using a fixed stop, then re-entering at the next level or upon lower high confirmation ? If so, what obstacles did you encounter upon testing this? Death by a thousand stops ? Missing the move ?

Your input in this grey area is greatly appreciated.