I would like to discuss averaging down

[riffrafffpatrol]

Quote from oraclewizard77:

Y I do notice some days all my setups work and some none of them work.

So when they don't work-- have you come to any reasonable conclusion or common denominator in a high % of cases that pinpoints to a high degree why they didn't work?

For instance-- I will map out a supply zone on XYZ stock... it is a very strong level.... price has never revisited the level before. Price spent little time at the level. This level resulted in a subsequent momentum drop-- big extended range candles. The distance before it found demand and reversed was also significantly larger relative to previous pullbacks/reversals. This in itself tells me this is a high probability area to look for a short the next time price retests the zone. HOWEVER-- the first time it goes back it blasts right through it and fails. Was this just random? On occasion yes... but in an extremely high number of cases, I can assure you it was not. There are specific conditions that exist when levels get breached... and specific conditions that exist when levels are honored... the majority of the time. If you deny it... so be it. It has taken me two long years to see the common denominators. These conditions now help me determine whether I initiate a counter or breakout trade... or whether I just pass and sit on my hands... they also give clues while in a trade whether one should hold or get out early prior to hitting a stop.

I urge you to look deep into your levels/setups that didnt work as well as those that did... and try to uncover the whys behind it. It is indeed possible.

 

[riffrafffpatrol]

Quote from oraclewizard77:

it would have been better to just get long 1 contract at the correct price level or to short where I 1st went long.

Like I said, I still think it would have better better for me to wait more patiently for a valid trade setup then get in too early, however I am obviously happy to make a profit for the day.

Congrats on the profit... that's why we do what we do!

The key point here is-- you have summed up the essence of why averaging down is a poor substitute for identifying the proper levels... Dustin's trade is a perfect example.

 

[riffrafffpatrol]

Quote from Daring:

Please do not derail and be considerate, the main topic remains, Averaging Down.

If you would like to discuss pivots, or trendlines, or pink elephants, please begin your own discussion.

Thank you

Well-- speaking of pink elephants... did you know that...



Just a little levity here for the proverbial ruffled feathers here...

 

[ammo]

Quote from riffrafffpatrol:

Congrats on the profit... that's why we do what we do!

The key point here is-- you have summed up the essence of why averaging down is a poor substitute for identifying the proper levels... Dustin's trade is a perfect example.

you are a one trick pony beating a broken drum ,on averaging down, i urge you once again to stick to what you know,have been averaging for over 3 years with an 85% success rate

 

[riffrafffpatrol]

Quote from ammo:

you are a one trick pony beating a broken drum ,on averaging down, i urge you once again to stick to what you know,have been averaging for over 3 years with an 85% success rate

Congrats.

Just think of the additional profit you would've made if you entered full position at the highest probability locations instead. The moral of the story? "Success" is relative.

 

[oraclewizard77]

I would say when they don't work is more psychological in that if I were to take a losing trade I may become angry, and want to make my money back so that I am trading emotionally instead of waiting for a confirmed setup.

I looked back once on a losing day, and saw I kept trading in the incorrect direction, but when I looked at the chart with fresh eyes, I saw what I should have done.

This is the main difference between Sim and real money, in that once you are trading with real money, you become more emotional. That is why I am currently trying to trade less, until I either get more confident or better. When I go for a scalp, my win% is much higher than being able to trade in the correct direction of the market for a longer term period. However, if I get to the point where I can predict a longer term trade correctly, and take that trade, I would make more profit.

Also, on the hard right side of the screen, its harder to recognize the correct setup or wait for the correct setup. Or sometimes just forgetting the rules I setup right before getting into a trade, for example, not waiting for double confirmation or going against one of my indicators in an instrument that respects this indicator more than a market where pure PA works better.

Quote from riffrafffpatrol:

So when they don't work-- have you come to any reasonable conclusion or common denominator in a high % of cases that pinpoints to a high degree why they didn't work?

For instance-- I will map out a supply zone on XYZ stock... it is a very strong level.... price has never revisited the level before. Price spent little time at the level. This level resulted in a subsequent momentum drop-- big extended range candles. The distance before it found demand and reversed was also significantly larger relative to previous pullbacks/reversals. This in itself tells me this is a high probability area to look for a short the next time price retests the zone. HOWEVER-- the first time it goes back it blasts right through it and fails. Was this just random? On occasion yes... but in an extremely high number of cases, I can assure you it was not. There are specific conditions that exist when levels get breached... and specific conditions that exist when levels are honored... the majority of the time. If you deny it... so be it. It has taken me two long years to see the common denominators. These conditions now help me determine whether I initiate a counter or breakout trade... or whether I just pass and sit on my hands... they also give clues while in a trade whether one should hold or get out early prior to hitting a stop.

I urge you to look deep into your levels/setups that didnt work as well as those that did... and try to uncover the whys behind it. It is indeed possible.

 

[ammo]

Quote from ammo:

asking what mathematical formula you use for a pivot, is there only one emperical formula known to the trading world,or several subjective ways to arrive at it,hourlys ,weeklies,15 minutes,seems there is a little room there to have more than one empirical head kahuna ...which one is empirical

does the emperor have an answer to which pivots are "100 % absolute"

 

[oldtime]

Quote from ammo:

does the emperor have an answer to which pivots are "100 % absolute"

and how do you use them to average down?

 

[riffrafffpatrol]

Quote from oraclewizard77:

I would say when they don't work is more psychological in that if I were to take a losing trade I may become angry, and want to make my money back so that I am trading emotionally instead of waiting for a confirmed setup.

I looked back once on a losing day, and saw I kept trading in the incorrect direction, but when I looked at the chart with fresh eyes, I saw what I should have done.

This is the main difference between Sim and real money, in that once you are trading with real money, you become more emotional. That is why I am currently trying to trade less, until I either get more confident or better. When I go for a scalp, my win% is much higher than being able to trade in the correct direction of the market for a longer term period. However, if I get to the point where I can predict a longer term trade correctly, and take that trade, I would make more profit.

Also, on the hard right side of the screen, its harder to recognize the correct setup or wait for the correct setup. Or sometimes just forgetting the rules I setup right before getting into a trade, for example, not waiting for double confirmation or going against one of my indicators in an instrument that respects this indicator more than a market where pure PA works better.

Oracle-- do you have a formal written trade plan?

Also-- have you read Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas? That book literally changed my life. Fear of pulling the trigger was my biggest obstacle... the content was a big eye opener for me. Highly recommend it (keep in mind it presumes the reader has an edge... and that simply put-- FEAR is ultimately what prevents us from capitalizing on that edge).

 

[ammo]

Quote from riffrafffpatrol:

This is ridiculous.

How hard is it for you to give me a single trade that had multiple entries and exit info... within the reply box here?

It is far easier to do that than for me to try and sift thru posts and decode where you had multiple adds.. and what you're exits were.

Your posting a link to threads is simply being used as a deterrent.

this is ridiculous, please supply actual numbers , empirical data , this hypothetical non answer is bs,it's far easier for you to do it than for me to sign up to some service, then promote it on ET,sifting thru multiple vendors,decoding , please stick it in the reply box here