I want to tell traders what "edge" disclosure can and can't do

Quote from original:

sure, I can

just what exactly will you give in return ??

Hell you can't even teach me to use the force Jedi, cause psychokinesis is my hobby :D :D

but if you'd like read posts of this guy by the name of COLD

he is brilliant :D :D
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so you are cold. no wonder why my douche bag meter spiked off the chart when i clicked on this thread.
 
Quote from SWhiting:


I have just ONE question for those that have 'made it' trading (and I doubt the OP qualifies): is there a way to MECHANICALLY trade the S&P (or ES) profitably? I have paper-trader umpteen strategies & have more to test but still have not found one that provides more than a 48/52% advantage. The original thesis does not pan out but the nverse does not either.
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I have a question for you. Why do you want to trade ES ? Maybe there is an edge in choosing the right market, rather than becoming obsessed with finding a hidden winning signal in the price time series for a particular instrument.

If you have spent a couple of hundred K, you have the capital to trade stocks or anything else for that matter.

Perhaps if you have a reasonable strategy for the ES that is almost profitable it might be profitable if you used the signals as entry points for trading (carefully chosen) baskets of stocks. Choose the strongest stocks for longs and the weakest for shorts.

There are many, many possible approaches, but one thing is certain the competition in the ES is fierce and it is a highly efficient market.
 
Quote from dcraig:



There are many, many possible approaches, but one thing is certain the competition in the ES is fierce and it is a highly efficient market.
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yes that is true yet it doesn't affect the trend based edge, that is the point of my thread

have you ever traded EUR/USD, at least for fun a little

what is more fuked up than EUR/USD, yet trend is a trend
 
Quote from SWhiting:



I have just ONE question for those that have 'made it' trading (and I doubt the OP qualifies):

1) do you use a totally mechanical system sucessfully?

2) if some discretion is involved is it in the entry, exit or both?

3) if discretion is used, how much is used in comparison to the mechanical parts?

4) what is the % of winners or losers and what do you expect for a win/loss ratio?

Any answers would be appreciated by all.
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I can answer ALL your questions but you insulted me so I won't

show some respect if you want people to help you, now just apologize and I will answer it, hey its the Internet what have you got to lose man

:)
 
Quote from TokyoGhetto:

I agree. Your edge is your ability to stick to your system and apply it to the market 100 % of the time.

It was once said that you can publish your trading system in the newspaper, and people will still lose money simply because they fail to apply all the rules of the trading system.

control your emotions and master your trades.
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All possible "simple" startegies that exploit "anomalies" in the market have been identified in the last 20 years and mean reverted thanks to CPU geometric speed increase .

Trend following startegies now suffer from increased volatility, the result being either reduced returns or huge failures.

Some anomalies still exist but very hard to identify. Only very sophisticated startegies can generate consistent returns.

One can find an edge for sure but it's becoming harder after so many smart people joined capitalism and can buy a fast computer at a low cost.

The future is a totally efficient and random market with no "legal" edge for anyone. It will be a 50/50 bet - expenses.

Alex
 
Quote from alexandermerwe:

All possible "simple" startegies that exploit "anomalies" in the market have been identified in the last 20 years and mean reverted thanks to CPU geometric speed increase .

Trend following startegies now suffer from increased volatility, the result being either reduced returns or huge failures.

Some anomalies still exist but very hard to identify. Only very sophisticated startegies can generate consistent returns.

One can find an edge for sure but it's becoming harder after so many smart people joined capitalism and can buy a fast computer at a low cost.

The future is a totally efficient and random market with no "legal" edge for anyone. It will be a 50/50 bet - expenses.

Alex
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I respectfully disagree on the trend, trend still exists as it did 100 years ago, and increase in volatility is an added bonus for a short term trader
While increase in volatility could be a waste of time for an longer term investor
But I agree that edge based on "anomalies" is harder to find now a days
I found couple and one in particular took me 2 years to find and refine and took some serious computer power and data downloading

and keep in mind that I am way above average when it comes to problem solving

What took me 2 years to compute would take an average person 10 years (so I know what you are referring to)

As for increase in volatility, that is a bonus a big bonus IMO
 
Quote from original:

I respectfully disagree on the trend, trend still exists as it did 100 years ago, and increase in volatility is an added bonus for a short term trader
While increase in volatility could be a waste of time for an longer term investor
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I never said that trends do not exist. They surely exist, all you have to do is look at a chart (after the fact of course). But here I find a contradiction. Short term traders do not most of the times care about the trend unless they are swing traders. Most I know are contrarians anyway.

Increased volatility forces a trend follower to exit the trend early and take a loss. Getting back in becomes harder and harder. I've been there my friend, many times.

Quote from original:

As for increase in volatility, that is a bonus a big bonus IMO
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Yes, I agree with you, especially for option writer and short-term volatility plays. But although you hear often that volatility is good, it is also what kills the average trader.

Anyway, I also agree with you that finding an edge may take years for a person with above average abilities. It's just too hard, everyone is looking for one.

Alex
 
Alex good post but it would help if we inject word timeframe into trend theme

What I found is that whatever timeframe you look at, prices behave the same

this goes against what analysts claim, for example people swear with 200 day moving average for investing

if you take 200 day MA and simulate it for last 75 years, you get same behavior of prices, same whipsaws etc

timeframe is extremely important, trend is meaningless without proper timeframe context, I would like to go into details, I really would, but even switching to PM, it still means MODs can read it

ok time to hit the hay
(I hit the hay a little too often, don't you think) :D :D
 
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