I want to talk about…… the lottery!

long · Oct 7, 2023

Couple questions on my mind.

First- Powerball was estimated at 1.4 billion for last Wednesday’s drawing and nobody won it. Now the estimate is the same? I would expect that it should go up as lots of people (me included) only lose control and buy a ticket win the jackpot gets to record levels. What gives?

Second- is there data available for how much money is going into the lottery? It seems like the draw game jackpots are climbing a lot faster now and the drawing are 2 to 3 time more frequent. That fact should keep the jackpots from getting so big. If there is data available I think I could make an economic indicator with it….

ph1l · Oct 7, 2023

long said:
Couple questions on my mind.

First- Powerball was estimated at 1.4 billion for last Wednesday’s drawing and nobody won it. Now the estimate is the same? I would expect that it should go up as lots of people (me included) only lose control and buy a ticket win the jackpot gets to record levels. What gives?

It does go up, but the rise could be small and appear to be zero.

Bing Chat said:
The Powerball jackpot does increase with each drawing when there is no winner. This process is known as a **rollover**¹. When no one gets the top-tier prize in a lottery draw, funds from that jackpot are added to the jackpot of the next game¹. The US Powerball jackpot amount will continue to grow with each draw without a winning ticket¹. Unlike other lotteries, the US Powerball does not have a rollover limit or a jackpot cap¹. As long as no one wins the jackpot, the prize money will keep on getting bigger¹!

However, it's important to note that the increase might not be noticeable if the jackpot is already very large. The odds generally stay the same because the game doesn't change when it experiences a rollover—only the prizes do¹. It's all about mathematically calculated probabilities¹.

If you've noticed that the Powerball jackpot didn't increase after a particular drawing, it could be due to various factors such as reporting delays or discrepancies in the estimated and actual sales for that particular drawing. But in general, if there's no winner for a drawing, the jackpot should increase for the next one.

Source: Conversation with Bing, 10/7/2023
(1) What Happens If No One Wins a Lotto Jackpot? • Lottery Critic. https://www.lotterycritic.com/news/what-happens-if-no-one-wins-a-lotto-jackpot/.
(2) Powerball jackpot nears $1 billion after no winners: When is the ... - MSN. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/p...-winners-when-is-the-next-drawing/ar-AA1ho706.
(3) Why Powerball, Mega Millions jackpots aren't at giant amounts - CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/19/why-powerball-mega-millions-jackpots-arent-at-giant-amounts.html.
(4) Why does the Powerball jackpot increase over time—and what was the .... https://www.cbsnews.com/news/why-do-powerball-jackpots-increase-largest-payout-history-ever-rules/.

long · Oct 8, 2023

ph1l said:
It does go up, but the rise could be small and appear to be zero.

It’s just that the estimate stayed exactly the same. I would think that it would’ve made it to at least 1.5 by the next drawing.

Overnight · Oct 10, 2023

long said:
It’s just that the estimate stayed exactly the same. I would think that it would’ve made it to at least 1.5 by the next drawing.

Well, it be $1.7 billion now, with $750 million cash payout.

long · Oct 12, 2023

Overnight said:
Well, it be $1.7 billion now, with $750 million cash payout.

I didn’t win

wartrace · Oct 12, 2023

I admit I bought 5 tickets for the last drawing; I didn't hit one number. I guess when the odds are 300 million to one you can't be too optimistic.

TrailerParkTed · Oct 13, 2023

Overnight said:
Well, it be $1.7 billion now, with $750 million cash payout.

The store who sold the ticket. He sold $300 in tickets that day. It’s a tiny stop.

gwb-trading · Oct 13, 2023

wartrace said:
I admit I bought 5 tickets for the last drawing; I didn't hit one number. I guess when the odds are 300 million to one you can't be too optimistic.

The question becomes -- what is the reward in payoff after taxes versus the risk odds.

On the other hand, the only way to keep the wife happy is having her buy lottery tickets when the jackpot is big. She has visions of living in a house the size of Biltmore after winning.

murray t turtle · Oct 16, 2023

long said:
I didn’t win

%%
LOOKs like you're maybe better off than average lotto loser buyer. How so??
Average lotto loser doesn't know lotto= is a stupid tax on people that cant do math.
Congrats, Mr Long , on admission of loss.
I asked a lotto buyer , in line @ gasoline station ''ever won anything??''
He says, buying more lotto tickets ''NO,[wins] but came close ''LOL

Millionaire Mind [Dr Stanley book] had another great point against lottery;
waste of time /in which could have made money.................................