I want to bet the farm

Not short gold, but am Short Palladium.

The fundamentals are good for Palladium, 1.6 million ounce deficit last year and continuing in deficit this year - although I believe you said that you are not a fundamental investor, so I guess you must be looking at the price action.
 
Are you just looking for a quick % decline based on TA before you exit, how long do you hold generally?

Depends on time frame. This being a monthly holding time could well be 2-6 months. Nikkei is based on daily pattern, so outcome ought to be within 2-5 days.
 
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