I walked away from trading with nothing after more than five years.

[ironchef]

The reality however is that the market is a random walk much of the time punctuated with periods of non-random directed price behaviour. The market exhibits behaviour characterised by fat tails. What this means in statistical terms is that markets carry more risk than what normal distributions characterised by random Brownian motion imply.

Thank you for the very insightful post and thanks for the link.

May I ask you a question on this: If not pure random walk, does it mean there are tradable signals one can find and how does one go about finding it?

A related question: Seems like long term, many stocks showed definite trends but short term more noise/randomness, where is the transition from noise to trend or is there one?

Regards,