I trade 1 ES
- Thread starter random trader
- Start date
No, my system has a down bias. I will be a buyer when it has an up bias. I don't think ES rising over 1015 will change the bias.
So far it seems to be gap and crap (I could be wrong as always), but the Intel effect is considered over now. If ES revisits the 1010 in absence of other "news", I will have my finger on the buy button.
Basically, my rule says that I can open positions and take profits but not stop out on spikes. This is one of the reason I don't use hard stops. One of the lessons learned a long time ago.
Except for the first hour, the market is indeed having a lifeless day. (I know, as soon as I speak, things change)
First, a comment on Random Trader's "style". This is a style that can only lose in the end in my opinion. Many times the market makes significant moves on a dramatic news event of some type. So if your rule is not to close a position in such an event, in the end a day will come when they take everything. I had a friend for instance who lost everything in the 1987 stock market drop of about 20% in one day (including his wife
). He was a great floor trader, had consistently made money for 5-6 years....but that particular day the market discovered his particular weakness, just as it always will in the end.Many times covering amidst "news" will result in covering at a high. As a trader this does not bother me. I've done it many times when I got on the wrong side of a market. When you're on the wrong side there is no pretty way out...you close your position, and take a fresh look. It's really that simple. If you happen to cover at the high....oh well....you can always get short again at lower prices if it really has the potential you thought. But importantly, while sometimes you may cover at the high, sometimes it will be the best move you ever made.
My fear is not to buy at the high, sell at the low. My fear is making decisions that will break me. Seen too many guys do it. Loses don't bother me particularly...they're just part of the game that we play. Not being willing to cover on a "spike" simply says you're fearing losses....which obviously "exposes" the account to a major draw down.
As to whether I would be a buyer at 1015. First, I'm not a breakout buyer. I would either hope to be long prior to that...or would get long at some future point AFTER the breakout. But I would go on to say that I never look at a chart without context. IN other words, at such time as the 1015 level was approached, I would have to see how everything that I monitor was trading. I've written numerous posts on the things that I look at. I'm not a "system" trader.
Hope that answers your question.
OldTrader
Thanks for your reply.
The "style" I was referring to was his reasoned approach to handling today. I read no fear in it. I wasn't referring to his trading methods, for I don't know what his methods are.
The reason I asked about 1015 was because you brought it up in a way that suggested that it would be a place to cover his short. And of course I was referring to that price in the context of the market's current IT trend as you are also when you refer to it as a breakout area.
I was merely interested in what you saw. I appreciate your explanation.
The "style" I was referring to was his reasoned approach to handling today. I read no fear in it. I wasn't referring to his trading methods, for I don't know what his methods are.
The reason I asked about 1015 was because you brought it up in a way that suggested that it would be a place to cover his short. And of course I was referring to that price in the context of the market's current IT trend as you are also when you refer to it as a breakout area.
I was merely interested in what you saw. I appreciate your explanation.
Quote from OldTrader:
First, a comment on Random Trader's "style". This is a style that can only lose in the end in my opinion. Many times the market makes significant moves on a dramatic news event of some type. So if your rule is not to close a position in such an event, in the end a day will come when they take everything. I had a friend for instance who lost everything in the 1987 stock market drop of about 20% in one day (including his wife
Many times covering amidst "news" will result in covering at a high. As a trader this does not bother me. I've done it many times when I got on the wrong side of a market. When you're on the wrong side there is no pretty way out...you close your position, and take a fresh look. It's really that simple. If you happen to cover at the high....oh well....you can always get short again at lower prices if it really has the potential you thought. But importantly, while sometimes you may cover at the high, sometimes it will be the best move you ever made.
My fear is not to buy at the high, sell at the low. My fear is making decisions that will break me. Seen too many guys do it. Loses don't bother me particularly...they're just part of the game that we play. Not being willing to cover on a "spike" simply says you're fearing losses....which obviously "exposes" the account to a major draw down.
As to whether I would be a buyer at 1015. First, I'm not a breakout buyer. I would either hope to be long prior to that...or would get long at some future point AFTER the breakout. But I would go on to say that I never look at a chart without context. IN other words, at such time as the 1015 level was approached, I would have to see how everything that I monitor was trading. I've written numerous posts on the things that I look at. I'm not a "system" trader.
Hope that answers your question.
OldTrader
You made some good points but missed one important factor: leverage. I agree that your comments apply to someone who is overleveraged and cannot survive a severe adverse move. Think LTCM. However, if LTCM were leveraged 1:20 instead of 1:200, there would not be any story about it. Greed kills.
Did you notice my experiment is called the "no fear, no greed" experiment?
I am underleveraged (overall, not in this account) and if you read my previous messages, you know I can take a 100 point (ES) move if I want to. I can survive another 1987; I even survived from NAZ 5000 to NAZ 1500.
For others reading, do not follow my style if you are not underleveraged. Peace.
Good observation, because this is the "no fear, no greed" experiment. My method is primitive to some of you, but I tend to think methods are not as important as some other things.