Election: Exit Polls Suggest "Grand Coalition" Likely] Sydney,
September 19: According to exit polls it appears that Merkel"s Christian
Democrats will edge out the Schroeder led Social Democrats by a narrower than
expected margin of 35.5% to 34%. With Merkel"s preferred partner the Free
Democrats showing 10.5% in the exit polls it appears that Merkel can not form a
governing coalition. The likely outcome would be a "grand coalition" with the
Social Democrats without Schroeder. If the exit polls hold up and the "grand
coalition" was to be the outcome it would weigh on the EUR/USD and German
equities. The market started to price in the possibility of a "grand coalition"
last week, but the EUR/USD bounced slightly on Friday when pre election polls
showed her party with more that 40%. A provisional official result will not be
known until after midnight local time (2200 GMT), although German television
will progressively update projections of the result.
--John.Noonan@thomson.com