I think someone found the holy grail

MacBookProHo said:
...

The Fugitive, 1993....also with Tommy Lee Jones. and Harrison Ford...they don't make movies like that anymore.
More...

Indeed. If you liked that one, then you'd like "U.S. Marshals" I think it is called. It was a kind of spinoff from the Fugitive.

Or was the Fugitive movie a spinoff of the Marshalls? Heh, cannot recall. Anyways.
 
SoyUnPerdedor said:
Wow, what an awesome thread. I've seen you guys mention that collective2 before. I have sooooo many questions, and that site seems kind of hard to navigate. Tons of questions for anyone with knowledge:

1. Has anyone actually done this? With which one? Results?

2. Is there not a way to sort the systems by how long they've been around? I don't want to see the hundreds that were set up in the last few months, I want to see the ones that have been around for years and that will have the most established track record.

3. How exactly does it work. Let's say I have an IB account. Do I have to give the system guy my login info and password and what not? Or just collective2? Does the system guy or someone else actually log into my account and make trades? Or collective2 just sends some electronic signal to IB and IB knows to make the trade in my account?

4. What if I have an account that is half invested in stocks and I don't want to sell those, can I instruct the system to just use the other half?

5. The one mentioned in the original post seems outstanding. As do all or most of those that wmwmw posted that he said blew out? They are up generally like 70%+ ANNUALLY and their max drawdowns like 25%ish? That seems outstanding to me. What am I missing here?

6. Is not the thing to do, assuming one had enough money, to sign up for like 10 different ones for 10 different accounts, all outstanding tested systems, and divvy up all or some of your portfolio in those different accounts? That way, if 1 or 2 blow out, you are probably still doing great, if (other than the ones that blow out) they continue to meet or even be close to past performance. A 75% annual return, even with a 100% blow out every 5-10 years, is still magic if you scale in and pull money out so the wipe-out does not kill you.

7. I wonder if another technique would be to watch them and wait for a blow out. If its been around years, and suffers its first blow-out, that might be a black swan and better performance should resume soon, time to go with it? Although maybe not.

Thanks!
More...




Oh, and #8, the most important one:



8. Is there some protection that prevents these people from setting up 5 different strategies, shutting down the 4 that did bad, and keeping open the 1 that did good, leaving you seeing only the good one, thinking wow they must have the market trading worked out!!!
 
Overnight said:
Indeed. If you liked that one, then you'd like "U.S. Marshals" I think it is called. It was a kind of spinoff from the Fugitive.

Or was the Fugitive movie a spinoff of the Marshalls? Heh, cannot recall. Anyways.
More...


Less talk of fiction movies, more talk of how to make money in the market, please...

:)
 
SoyUnPerdedor said:
Wow, what an awesome thread. I've seen you guys mention that collective2 before. I have sooooo many questions, and that site seems kind of hard to navigate. Tons of questions for anyone with knowledge:

1. Has anyone actually done this? With which one? Results?

2. Is there not a way to sort the systems by how long they've been around? I don't want to see the hundreds that were set up in the last few months, I want to see the ones that have been around for years and that will have the most established track record.

3. How exactly does it work. Let's say I have an IB account. Do I have to give the system guy my login info and password and what not? Or just collective2? Does the system guy or someone else actually log into my account and make trades? Or collective2 just sends some electronic signal to IB and IB knows to make the trade in my account?

4. What if I have an account that is half invested in stocks and I don't want to sell those, can I instruct the system to just use the other half?

5. The one mentioned in the original post seems outstanding. As do all or most of those that wmwmw posted that he said blew out? They are up generally like 70%+ ANNUALLY and their max drawdowns like 25%ish? That seems outstanding to me. What am I missing here?

6. Is not the thing to do, assuming one had enough money, to sign up for like 10 different ones for 10 different accounts, all outstanding tested systems, and divvy up all or some of your portfolio in those different accounts? That way, if 1 or 2 blow out, you are probably still doing great, if (other than the ones that blow out) they continue to meet or even be close to past performance. A 75% annual return, even with a 100% blow out every 5-10 years, is still magic if you scale in and pull money out so the wipe-out does not kill you.

7. I wonder if another technique would be to watch them and wait for a blow out. If its been around years, and suffers its first blow-out, that might be a black swan and better performance should resume soon, time to go with it? Although maybe not.

Thanks!
More...


1 and 6. In C 2, there are regular subscibers who make consistent money. The methed is to subscribe like 10 strategies and replace those which failed.
Also the rule of thumb is not to subscribe a strategy less than 6 month long.

2. C2 has something called "grid", you can sort all strategies by your criteria, like how long, annual profit, drawdown, etc.

3. C 2 has an autotrade syetem to connect to developer. You connect to this system. So the developer does not know your account information. You need to pay a monthly fee to use this system.

4.You can set the rule how much of your account trade the signal.You can also instruct C2 to send you email signal instead of autotrade , or when to switch between the two.

5. They can do a good job in a few months, but not much longer.
Good strategies longer than 1 year are extremely rare.
Good strategies longer than 3 years are zero.

7. Drawdown is most important sign. Once you see drawdown widen, get out immediately.

8. From developer's profile you can see how many strategies he is running, how many he did in the past. But that can not stop him, because he can set up a new account with a different name.
 
Last edited:
Thank you so much wmwmw! A few follow-ups:

1. When you say "The method is to subscribe like 10 strategies and replace those that failed", what do you mean by "failed"? What is your definition of a fail?

2. When you say "good strategies longer than 3 years are zero" - what do you mean exactly? For example, here is one that has been around well over 3 years:

https://collective2.com/details/117734561

It has over a 45% annual return, and less than a 25% max drowdown. That would be an absolute winner in my book, far far better than I could ever do! You would consider that a fail? Tough grader! :)


I see the grid now, thanks, exactly what I needed!

Interesting how your strategy, follow them and when one does bad kick it out, differs from my initial reaction as to what a good strategy might be. Putting the subscription cost aside, let's say you had 10 different strategies that produced a 50% annual return each but each had a 100% drawdown (i.e. it goes completely bust) once every 10 years.

I would put equal amounts into each of those ten strategies, so if I started with $100 I would put $10 in each. In any given years, one of those is likely to go bust, so you are -$10 on that one, but also in any given year the remainders will on average gain $5 each ($10 x 50% return), or $45 totaly (9*$5). So in any given year you could expect to be up 35%. Which is hugely good in my mind, even starting with the very bad 100% drawdown percentage and (apparently) no so great 50% annual return averages (many of those strategies apparently have much, much better results).

I also don't know if just sticking with the single best long-term one is the best way to go - maybe its just been luck that IT hasn't had its bust yet, and some weird set of circumstances are going to come about to cause it to bust. Maybe getting a strategy that has had HUGE (say 100%) annual returns over time, but just had a really, really bad drawdown (50% or more) is the thing to do because it has had its set of weird circumstances hit it already.

But I dunno. Some of those numbers are certainly eye-popping.

The thing about them being able to set up an unlimited number of accounts/strategies, then killing off the 9 out of 10 that did bad or just ok, keeping the 1 that did good, is troubling, that means that "strategy" could have just been 100% luck...

Thanks so much for the help!!!
 
Wow I looked at those you linked wmwmw, very impressive. They lack the long term testing, but I *LOVE* how they don't tend to drop very much at all generally even when the market is tanking.
 
maxinger said:
99. 9% of those reports are fake.

Just read it for entertainment purpose.

It also gives you a
Good idea how to create an impressive fake report..
Then people would think it is a holy grail.
More...


You are saying those collective2 reports on people's various strategies are fake? How do you know?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top