Personally I think the iPad is going to be a flop. Apple has been getting more and more detached from the reality of what people want and need. In my mind, Jobs' recent decisions are showing some pretty bad judgement. I think they are rooted in ego more then they are in logic.
The walled-garden concept was discredited with the fall of AOL and Compuserve. I'm referring of course to the app store. I don't think that consumers are going to want
to give up the ability to buy applications from whomever they please.
Developers are already getting tired of the capricious approval process and realizing the futility of building a business based on Apple's continued whim. And how smart is it to run a company without direct access to your customers?
The the success of the iPhone is attributable to the fact that it is first and foremost a PHONE.
Everybody needs a phone, and if they can get one that is super cool for a little more, then why not? I'm one of the people who's made the app store a success by buying a couple of fun little apps for my phone. But I wouldn't consider using my phone for any real work, it's just too cumbersome and limited.
In the short term, the biggest problem is price combined with a lack of functionality. We're in the middle of a recession and people have learned the habit of being frugal. Even if we have a quick recovery from here on out, that habit will stick for a year or two more. I don't think that an overpriced toy is going to pull people away from laptops and netbooks which are far more functional. If people are going to pay computer prices (or almost so), I think they are smart enough to want a real computer.
Now that Windows 7 is out, Apple has missed their chance to take over the business PC market, mainly because they've been focusing on consumer products. They had literally years in which to steal the PC market from Microsoft, and I'm astonished that they squandered the opportunity.
Market share on mass market consumer products is great but it always turns into race to the bottom in terms of profit margin.
By the way, I am typing this on my Powerbook
. I used to be a big fan of their products and have been using them since 1994.
I wouldn't short a chart that looks like this one; the fools have proven over and over again that they dumber than I think they are. But I wouldn't buy it, and I'd definitely get out if you are still long. I got out at around $200, and despite the continued appreciation I feel like I did the right thing.
One more thing. I've noticed a lack of follow-through from the company that has me puzzled. The Apple TV device is apparently a perfectly reasonable DVR. It seems that they could have really taken on Tivo but they failed to even try. They could have done deals with cable or satellite companies. They could have advertised it more. They could have wound up the press hype machine. It's not super sexy but it could have been a solid business.
Now tell me, why am I wrong about the continued prospects of this company?
The walled-garden concept was discredited with the fall of AOL and Compuserve. I'm referring of course to the app store. I don't think that consumers are going to want
to give up the ability to buy applications from whomever they please.
Developers are already getting tired of the capricious approval process and realizing the futility of building a business based on Apple's continued whim. And how smart is it to run a company without direct access to your customers?
The the success of the iPhone is attributable to the fact that it is first and foremost a PHONE.
Everybody needs a phone, and if they can get one that is super cool for a little more, then why not? I'm one of the people who's made the app store a success by buying a couple of fun little apps for my phone. But I wouldn't consider using my phone for any real work, it's just too cumbersome and limited.
In the short term, the biggest problem is price combined with a lack of functionality. We're in the middle of a recession and people have learned the habit of being frugal. Even if we have a quick recovery from here on out, that habit will stick for a year or two more. I don't think that an overpriced toy is going to pull people away from laptops and netbooks which are far more functional. If people are going to pay computer prices (or almost so), I think they are smart enough to want a real computer.
Now that Windows 7 is out, Apple has missed their chance to take over the business PC market, mainly because they've been focusing on consumer products. They had literally years in which to steal the PC market from Microsoft, and I'm astonished that they squandered the opportunity.
Market share on mass market consumer products is great but it always turns into race to the bottom in terms of profit margin.
By the way, I am typing this on my Powerbook
. I used to be a big fan of their products and have been using them since 1994.I wouldn't short a chart that looks like this one; the fools have proven over and over again that they dumber than I think they are. But I wouldn't buy it, and I'd definitely get out if you are still long. I got out at around $200, and despite the continued appreciation I feel like I did the right thing.
One more thing. I've noticed a lack of follow-through from the company that has me puzzled. The Apple TV device is apparently a perfectly reasonable DVR. It seems that they could have really taken on Tivo but they failed to even try. They could have done deals with cable or satellite companies. They could have advertised it more. They could have wound up the press hype machine. It's not super sexy but it could have been a solid business.
Now tell me, why am I wrong about the continued prospects of this company?
