I think I'm done trying to trade the ES

[R. Raskolnikov]

You and everyone else tries to do that, which is why most fail at ES trading. You need a reason to enter of course but pay less attention to trying to perfectly time things (on the entry) and more attention to being right. Just go look over all your past trades, see what happened after you exited. Find commonalities. Find patterns in your trading.
Most people don't want to feel "heat" which is why they try and nail things to the tick. But this is not only the hardest thing to do, but it puts you in a state of sheer panic and anxiety the moment you enter. And that's no way to trade.

Quote from Audi_R8:

Sounds interesting, but I don't follow.

Its true that I've been trying to NAIL the entry to the tick (which I've done many times) but still am getting no where.

 

[IanMacQuaide]

Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

You and everyone else tries to do that, which is why most fail at ES trading. You need a reason to enter of course but pay less attention to trying to perfectly time things (on the entry) and more attention to being right. Just go look over all your past trades, see what happened after you exited. Find commonalities. Find patterns in your trading.
Most people don't want to feel "heat" which is why they try and nail things to the tick. But this is not only the hardest thing to do, but it puts you in a state of sheer panic and anxiety the moment you enter. And that's no way to trade.

Some of the best words I've ever read on the art of trading.
Thank you.

 

[Lucrum]

Quote from Audi_R8:


I've focused on volume as a way to give me a slight edge.

I've watched thousands of volume bars and have a very good idea of when exhaustion occurs and the potential reversals to follow.

I'm probably opening up a can of <s>worms</s> semantics here. But to me "using volume" would be looking at volume in a separate pane on your chart. Constant volume bars, which is what it sounds like you're using, would be something entirely different.

 

[Audi_R8]

Quote from Lucrum:

I'm probably opening up a can of <s>worms</s> semantics here. But to me "using volume" would be looking at volume in a separate pane on your chart. Constant volume bars, which is what it sounds like you're using, would be something entirely different.

Nope, just normal volume bars on the 1, 5, 15 minute charts. Not constant volume bars.

 

[StevenBruce]

If you are a newbie, and you do sound like one, the problem you face is lack of experience

Provided you can trade a rule set with discipline you can make this work if you adhere to a decent systematic approach

Some examples are

1. Simple Support & Resistance. You put in S & R lines based on a longer term chart (say 240 minutes down to 60 minutes). Then you trade "tests" and (preferrably) retests of those lines. When I say "preferrably" I mean that you have better odds if you wait for price to "take out" a support or resistance level, and the come back to re-test it. You put on the position looking for price to resume its trend up or down....

2. Trade "confluence" of several indicators. For example you look for price to test a known area (lets use the S & R lines from the system above), and you add an additional rule. In this case you want to see price at or near to a pivot (daily, weekly monthly pivot, S or R level) that most chart software will place on your charts automatically. When price tests and both elements are nearby or converge at that point, you take the trade in the direction of the trend.

3. Some trader use Market Profile numbers (Previous Day's Value Area High & Low). Some use Volume Profile numbers as well (they tend to be pretty close together). Trading tests of the previous value areas works well for me. Combining this with the examples above works well if you understand the basics and act with discipline

Stops are pretty important in this market. Use stops that are bigger than 2 points. If you need to, trade smaller size in order to do that. Professionals know that retail uses 2 point stops and basically if you look at the retraces, you can see how easy it is to shake you guys out....

Trade at least 2 contracts, or wait until you have enough money to capitalize your account so you can afford this minimum size. If yu can't afford it stand aside and do your homework, observing the market and taking notes until you DO have enough capital to finance your business (thats what this is about remember).


Good luck
Stevesbg

 

[suedeuno]

You need to define before hand if it's a high probability setup or not. You'll increase your odds greatly by learning support/resistance and having patience once you have a setup you that have better than average confidence in.

 

[Lucrum]

Quote from Audi_R8:

Nope, just normal volume bars on the 1, 5, 15 minute charts. Not constant volume bars.

OK I misunderstood your first post then.

It may or may not help but I find looking at volume in time frames less than 15 min
difficult to use or interpret.
But that may just be me.
I also like to know how the volume compares to whats normal or average.
But sense the volume is higher in the morning and afternoon and lower mid session. I use an average for the time of day rather than a simple moving average.

The yellow line in the volume pane of the attachment is the average volume for that specific time of day.

 

[ivanbaj]

Quote from Lucrum:

OK I misunderstood your first post then.

It may or may not help but I find looking at volume in time frames less than 15 min
difficult to use or interpret.
But that may just be me.
I also like to know how the volume compares to whats normal or average.
But sense the volume is higher in the morning and afternoon and lower mid session. I use an average for the time of day rather than a simple moving average.

The yellow line in the volume pane of the attachment is the average volume for that specific time of day.

here is mine for 30 min bars on ZN. Green today, Red 5 days average, Yellow 10 day average. Blue line difference today 10 days average.

 

[ivanbaj]

I am just becoming somewhat profitable. Take my advise with a big, big grain of salt. Basically what I am saying is most likely BS. But here it is...

Get out of a static mind set. Do not think in terms of setups. Like if X and Y and Z etc... I go long and I go for 1:3 etc.. etc.. This is BS.

Think dynamic. Go with the flow. Understand where is the big picture where is the small picture. What is it trying to do. Is it succeeding. Looks like it is not. Make a bet. Look again. It is still not succeeding add to it. Now it is going your way add more. Shit.... It just blow up in your face get out and reverse hard. Go with it etc.... etc....

Static is for the academia. Being a day trader is an art. It is a feel of market and how it is doing.

If you want static get a Phd in math, then go with HFT and join the dark side.

Edit: Also you need to have a good feel of the volatility. This will help you have realistic view of how much to bet and how much to take. You don't need to hit it out of the park. Steady Eddy. 2 ES points per day with size will make you rich.

Create an Excel spreadsheet with Monte Carlo and just run it for days till you get in your blood what is possible as far as profit and drawdowns for 3:1 with 50%,55%,60%,65% etc... then 2:1 then 1:1 then 1:2 etc..... Read up on Kelly and such.

How many trades do you need for a given R:R and win% to get a 95% confidence level that your have consistent profit per month. Things like that. This will help you have a view of what the hell are you trying to do on this market.

 

[Audi_R8]

Quote from ivanbaj:

I am just becoming somewhat profitable. Take my advise with a big, big grain of salt. Basically what I am saying is most likely BS. But here it is...

Get out of a static mind set. Do not think in terms of setups. Like if X and Y and Z etc... I go long and I go for 1:3 etc.. etc.. This is BS.

Think dynamic. Go with the flow. Understand where is the big picture where is the small picture. What is it trying to do. Is it succeeding. Looks like it is not. Make a bet. Look again. It is still not succeeding add to it. Now it is going your way add more. Shit.... It just blow up in your face get out and reverse hard. Go with it etc.... etc....

Static is for the academia. Being a day trader is an art. It is a feel of market and how it is doing.

If you want static get a Phd in math, then go with HFT and join the dark side.

Thanks for your input and this is something I've struggled with.

A big problem for me in trading the ES is that I really do not trust any type of rigid set up because I think its all bullshit really (nothing better than random) BUT at the same time you want something thats measurable, which is where specific setups are of value.

I feel like the way I have been using volume along with time does have some merit but it obviously has not gotten me anywhere.




I don't know. I'm pretty lost.