Baron posted the only advice you'll ever need at this point. Heed it. It was the first response to this thread. Just listen to the Baron duder, he is sneaky smart.
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I think I have a winning strategy. What can I do with it?
- Thread starter small_el_trader
- Start date
Baron posted the only advice you'll ever need at this point. Heed it. It was the first response to this thread. Just listen to the Baron duder, he is sneaky smart.
Baron posted the only advice you'll ever need at this point. Heed it. It was the first response to this thread. Just listen to the Baron duder, he is sneaky smart.
Yes, I have considered the possibility that markets can change and that I can lose money. Don't worry, I'll be the first to go bankrupt if I'm wrong.
If you backtested 10 years including 2008, your system should be robust enough to handle potential downturns. So, don't give up.Yes, I have considered the possibility that markets can change and that I can lose money. Don't worry, I'll be the first to go bankrupt if I'm wrong.
One word of caution: If you are running a fund, you are not the one going bankrupt. So, when the day comes, treat other people's money with the utmost care and respect, not with your current mindset.
Good luck and best wishes.
My questions would be along the same lines I'd ask myself about a strategy.I've found a strategy that seems to work really well. I've been trading it for the past year with excellent results (about 40% return, 10% max drawdown) and it also works well in all the backtests that I've done. It's a mostly passive strategy, following just a few simple rules, holding 3-4 positions for about 6 months at a time on average. I feel like it would work well for other investors but I'm not sure what form would be best.
risk: how correlated are you with the market? do you only go long or do you go short too? what are your transaction costs? in total, how many trades where there (irl and in the backtest), what was the average return and standard deviation of these returns (so you can estimate significance)?
diversification/alpha: in your backtest, how many unique names were selected by your screen? what is so special about these names? is the name selection based on your personal process or is it formulaic? is it based on some sort of information that's hard to come by or is it something that people have not thought of?
strategy faults: are you using any information outside of the market prices and history? if yes, is it reliably delivered and your backtest is not an artifact of information delay? any other potential for look-ahead bias? how many free parameters does your strategy have?
If you have done the usual tests and it still performs, you should make a presentation and, as has been suggested, have a chat with a bunch of people. Since you don't appear to have any cross-sectional diversification and doing a fairly small number of trades, people will be rightfully skeptical about the whole thing.
I've found a strategy that seems to work really well. I've been trading it for the past year with excellent results (about 40% return, 10% max drawdown) and it also works well in all the backtests that I've done. It's a mostly passive strategy, following just a few simple rules, holding 3-4 positions for about 6 months at a time on average. I feel like it would work well for other investors but I'm not sure what form would be best.
I thought of starting a mutual fund, but I don't think I have enough capital or the reputation for that. I thought of prop trading, but that seems mostly oriented towards day traders. I thought of doing a 'friends and family' investment advisor account, but I don't know anyone personally that could or would want to invest enough to be worthwhile.
Am I missing something obvious? I feel like I have a strategy that crushes any mainstream mutual fund/etf, but there's no way for me to offer it to regular investors.
Thought I had answered very similar questions before. There seems to be all sorts of winning strategies available on the interwebs, to bad they are all secret.
Raise capital, use strategy, make TV commercial to sell strategy, profit.
.....
If you have completed a thousand trades, and the statement "I can consistently make money every week", remains true and accurate. As in, an analysis your trading statements shows appropriate draw downs, risk, win/loss, and expectancy etc.
And you have a strategy to deal with a reversal in the market, which you might not have yet encountered.
Then go on a capital drive.
Same work, mo' money.
If you wanted money from me to invest:
Question #1: Have you completed 300 or more live round trip trades? Not asking about the time span, how many round trips on a live account? Show proof.
Question #2: What was the expectancy and maximum draw down actually encountered? Show proof.
Question #3: Based on your actual trading history of 300+ trades, not your theoretical model, what is your risk of ruin at 100,000 trades? Show proof.
I have another hundred or so other questions but suspect 1, 2, 3 is enough to start.
And also answered it here:
A MAN comes to me with a DEAL (selling, leasing, renting, partnership, co-venture etc) on VENTURE X.
I first look at the MAN not the DEAL, not the VENTURE. I’ve done this many times in the past, mostly on commercial real estate investments.
......
$25 to 50k is not much. Got a car, sell it. Go a to a bank get a loan. Get a cash advance on a credit card if the returns are that good. Why haven’t family and friends been approached? Who have you already approached and why have they turned you down?
...
Yup same story, different day.
What do you mean ? I have 4 stocks now, ok ? And a robust, backtested edge. Ok ? What more do I need, why should I bother about another set of stocks ? I have better stuff to do now... 1.) start managing a fund as a fund manager, managing other peeples money. 2.) Thinking about which yacht I should buy soon.
Really, all you need to remember is what I call now MBFS... this is like my supersecret nuclear power formula, ok ? What does it mean ? It means: Monday Buy, Friday Sell ! Wow, I should just name my investment fund after that ! The MBFS capital management fund, ok ?
What I mean is - why these four stocks?
What I mean is - why these four stocks?
I just selected them because everybody knows them, likes them... so they have to be good, ok ?
Can you stop? You've posted a bunch of really sarcastic responses already. One is enough. I realize that this industry is full of scammers and that it's possible I'm totally wrong. But you've more than made that point.
I will, if people stop taking my stuff serious and stop quoting my nonsense.
I just selected them because everybody knows them, likes them... so they have to be good, ok ?
That's worked out OK for you, but how will you take it forward from here? What if 1 or 2 or all these shares start going down?