I think I found working stock trading system

[stockpredictor]

Hey you're not going to get any recognition. In the real world no one will use it as evidence. I tried and it didn't work even when I posted this: https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/prediction-based-trading.351176/page-38

 

[Saltynuts]

if your system only tests buy signal, how can you rule out the influence of general bull trend in the last 10 years?

Why does he necessarily have to rule it out? If the market goes bull to the tune of 10% over a period, but his foes bull to the tune of 30% over that same period, I'd want to know.

 

[trend2009]

Why does he necessarily have to rule it out? If the market goes bull to the tune of 10% over a period, but his foes bull to the tune of 30% over that same period, I'd want to know.

Your scenario explains what I mean

 

[Dna7272]

Hey you're not going to get any recognition. In the real world no one will use it as evidence. I tried and it didn't work even when I posted this: https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/prediction-based-trading.351176/page-38

I am actually impressed. Well done!

(Probably because I wrote that I am impressed, now people think that i am you writing from another account)

 

[Saltynuts]

Your scenario explains what I mean

Ah, got it. Thanks.

 

[jbusse]

Hello guys,

I am a Finance PhD student, and I found a very interesting trading system that can correctly predict stock movement around earnings announcements. I backtested the idea and it works very well. The system picks stocks with about 80% correctness.

I am thinking of not publishing the idea but start investing with the system with a plan to open my hedge fund in the future.

I will be publishing my picks in this forum to get some recognition, which I think will be useful if I decide to open a hedge fund.

I will not edit any of my posts to keep myself accountable. Hence, if you find some grammatical errors in my post please be a little lenient about them.

My first recommendation: Buy today (2.26.2021) TGT (Target Corporation) before close and keep it until Monday (3.1.2021) close. If the stock does not go up on Monday, you need to keep it until the next day after the announcement (3.3.2021) and sell before close that day.

I do not expect that you invest in this stock based on my first recommendation. Moreover, I do not recommend doing it. But I suggest adding my recommendation to your calendar and see what happens. Probably after about a month when I will have about 20-30 posts you can make your judgment.

I will be publishing my new recommendations as soon as my system picks a new one.

I'd agree that you'd not want to publish your idea if it works. The typical academic journal referee wouldn't appreciate it anyway. It's like casting pearls before swine.

Years ago, when I was in grad school in NYC, a Wall Street friend always told me to keep my best stock-related ideas to myself rather than try to publish them.

 

[tomkat22]

Opening a position right before an earnings announcement and holding through said announcement- I love your daredevil spirit. Did you notice WMT,HD and LOW's recent EA's? Hope it's not a large position in the event you have to bail.

 

[d08]

Hey you're not going to get any recognition. In the real world no one will use it as evidence. I tried and it didn't work even when I posted this: https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/prediction-based-trading.351176/page-38

50 trades and less than 6 months of data is not significant proof. You need years of data and probably thousands of trades.

 

[DiceAreCast]

How do you plan on getting recognition with an anonymous screen handle, even if you happen to be predominantly right about your prediction claims?

And out of curiosity, what is your dissertation topic gonna be if this one, which you won't publish, is that much more promising and potentially more rewarding?

Hello guys,

I am a Finance PhD student, and I found a very interesting trading system that can correctly predict stock movement around earnings announcements. I backtested the idea and it works very well. The system picks stocks with about 80% correctness.

I am thinking of not publishing the idea but start investing with the system with a plan to open my hedge fund in the future.

I will be publishing my picks in this forum to get some recognition, which I think will be useful if I decide to open a hedge fund.

I will not edit any of my posts to keep myself accountable. Hence, if you find some grammatical errors in my post please be a little lenient about them.

My first recommendation: Buy today (2.26.2021) TGT (Target Corporation) before close and keep it until Monday (3.1.2021) close. If the stock does not go up on Monday, you need to keep it until the next day after the announcement (3.3.2021) and sell before close that day.

I do not expect that you invest in this stock based on my first recommendation. Moreover, I do not recommend doing it. But I suggest adding my recommendation to your calendar and see what happens. Probably after about a month when I will have about 20-30 posts you can make your judgment.

I will be publishing my new recommendations as soon as my system picks a new one.

 

[LiquidMike]

I saw a guy on Collective2 with a trading system with a very high win rate above 80% that does the same thing except he Shorts stocks before earnings and exits afterwards. It seems like a lot of times, the pricing is already built into the stock before earnings and then it'll dump after.