What did you expect!!!
I think I figured out why trading can never work for so many people
- Thread starter ChkitOut
- Start date
What did you expect!!!
Great, thank you for your reply. Yes I trade the ES.
Why don't I just send you my trades? Would you like an explanation of the setup I am seeing or just when I place my entry stop and exits? Oh, I don't mind that I've been at this more than 20 years.
Sorry, just being a little sarcastic. I think a more correct comparison would be trying to teach someone to paint like Picasso, or play guitar like Hendrix.
Sorry, just being a little sarcastic. I think a more correct comparison would be trying to teach someone to paint like Picasso, or play guitar like Hendrix.
You will probably be killed by pirates.
Quote from NoDoji:
Thanks Piezoe for your kind words. My 9th grade English teacher was awesome and one of the teachers who had a major impact on me
The way I add a new idea to my trading plan pretty much follows this route:
First, I notice a certain price action pattern that seems to repeat. (This doesn't necessarily mean a fixed chart pattern like a 1-2-3 pattern; it could be something more nebulous like trading a range.)
Next, I "eyeball" previous occurrences of the pattern and think to myself, "There seems to be positive expectancy in this."
Then, if the "eyeball" analysis is enticing, I then come up with a rough plan based on that informal analysis and I put the plan to the test by logging the result of every appearance of the pattern on a spreadsheet. Since I'm an intraday scalper, I like to compile 3-4 weeks worth of data. This step is important because I have a tendency to see all the instances where an idea worked and perhaps I overlook the instances where it fails - confirmation bias. Hard stats give you a clearer picture.
Thank you NoDoji
I know I am late to this thread but I wanted to ask NoDoji a question. What market did you have the trader you mention above first start trading with this trend continuation tactic? Was it ES, CL, or? And was it both trade #1 and trade #2 or just trade #2? Thanks for any answer you can give.
Trading does not work for people because they are scared (or foolish gamblers with no financial background who shouldn't be assuming this responsibility until they have at least some experience trading), and don't have the resources to properly analyze risk, at least in futures or leveraged instruments.
Typically I will see people talk about how they want their target on ES to be like $300 without accounting for the indicators that might or might not yield this average profit, but most likely even when they reduce the stop for a 2:1 rr it doesn't matter because the very target of $300 is the curve fit. Probably pick up any indicator with this as your target and it'll give you profits after an optimization or two.
The real point is that finding out what the system's capable of with it's parameters, will tell you the ranges that should be used for your targets and stops and once you've found what the parameters do by themselves only then should you worry about the targets and they're probably going to be a lot more risky then I optimize for 50% wins and a 2:1 rr then that'll be profitable. The point is that many don't even do this analysis and figure something like discretionary trading at the scalping level will do this then go forward to try automation.
The point is automation comes first, and before that there should be nothing but menial investing in funds or with a stock brokers.
I don't have to point out to you that there are informed people, but more importantly don't you want someone to advise you or at least try to help because you don't know anything about why the value of the company goes down even though it's profitable and worth a whole lot more?
Anyway, I get paid diddly to make decisions affecting the economy hundreds of thousands of dollars every day, and at least on the component to automation, it looks well worth a wait of 3 years to get everything squared off.
Typically I will see people talk about how they want their target on ES to be like $300 without accounting for the indicators that might or might not yield this average profit, but most likely even when they reduce the stop for a 2:1 rr it doesn't matter because the very target of $300 is the curve fit. Probably pick up any indicator with this as your target and it'll give you profits after an optimization or two.
The real point is that finding out what the system's capable of with it's parameters, will tell you the ranges that should be used for your targets and stops and once you've found what the parameters do by themselves only then should you worry about the targets and they're probably going to be a lot more risky then I optimize for 50% wins and a 2:1 rr then that'll be profitable. The point is that many don't even do this analysis and figure something like discretionary trading at the scalping level will do this then go forward to try automation.
The point is automation comes first, and before that there should be nothing but menial investing in funds or with a stock brokers.
I don't have to point out to you that there are informed people, but more importantly don't you want someone to advise you or at least try to help because you don't know anything about why the value of the company goes down even though it's profitable and worth a whole lot more?
Anyway, I get paid diddly to make decisions affecting the economy hundreds of thousands of dollars every day, and at least on the component to automation, it looks well worth a wait of 3 years to get everything squared off.
if you are using targets and stops, I doubt you are going to make it very far in this business, unless you are a genious, have a genie in a bottle, or God Himself tells you what is going to happen.
wouldn't it be nice though if it was just that simple?
just put it on with a stop and a target, and if you are right you will make money
I've never met anybody or even heard about anybody that was consistently that good
although they often write articles, or even books about somebody that was that good once
