I think I discovered the big guys' secret...share your secrets here!!!

[Bakinec]

Quote from toc:

'if overnight > down = day > down, or vice versa'

can you expand on this a little, what do you mean by down.

Going down in price. We're talking about the S&P e-mini (ES) contract. I was saying that just because its price is going down overnight, doesn't mean it's going to do the same on the market open, and vice versa.

I've even noticed that often when it's going down overnight, that means it's going to go up on the open and vice versa.

 

[Bakinec]

Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

I didn't say anything about only using the overnight data the way you've described below. This is just ONE way in which you have seen data and tried to find correlations.

There are other ways in which the overnight data, combined with an already profitable approach, refines entries and makes a system even better.

I don't deny that. Could you please elaborate? Relying on overnight price action alone will only mess up the system. Are you talking 'bout volume?

 

[R. Raskolnikov]

The overnight data forms part of the daily charts range for the current day. Some days the high or low of the session will occur overnight. This obviously isn't official until the day closes but KNOWING that we took out previous highs/lows compared to the previous days range in the overnight session can greatly impact the following days trading (ie 8/14).

Quote from Gubinec:

I don't deny that. Could you please elaborate? Relying on overnight price action alone will only mess up the system. Are you talking 'bout volume?

 

[Bakinec]

I also noticed that, if there's going to be news the next day that's expected to be positive, the overnight session will often drive the price down from the previous day's close, and the price will skyrocket on the open, like it has done the past 3-4 weeks.

So, one way I could confirm what Raskolnikov is saying, is that the overnight session often sets the tone for the force with which the market will move on the open.

So, let's say, today, ES was moving down overnight on news that oil broke down in price and the Asian markets suffered a major sell-off. The day session opens at 9:30, and even though the Lowe's reported a down quarter from the previous, the ES did NOT sell off 10 points or more, as the news was already discounted in the overnight.

One could say this is obvious, but I'm 20 years old and a rookie to this game compared to other posters here. Just trying to make sense of it all.

 

[Bakinec]

Quote from R. Raskolnikov:

The overnight data forms part of the daily charts range for the current day. Some days the high or low of the session will occur overnight. This obviously isn't official until the day closes but KNOWING that we took out previous highs/lows compared to the previous days range in the overnight session can greatly impact the following days trading (ie 8/14).

Gotcha)

 

[R. Raskolnikov]

Keep being inquisitive and constantly trying to find answers to everything you can, that's the key to learning to trade. I've been trading full time for longer than half your life and the things that I've found that work like clockwork took thousands of hours of piecing together.

Quote from Gubinec:


One could say this is obvious, but I'm 20 years old and a rookie to this game compared to other posters here. Just trying to make sense of it all.

 

[Bakinec]

Your encouragement is appreciated, Ras! It's pretty frustrating to stare at the screen day after day for over 12 hours trying to find some pattern to it, but I gotta say it's starting to pay off after a while. Just gotta be patient.

I've used to rely on indicators and other such nonsense, and thanks to that I blew my account at the prop I was with. With a significant debt on my neck, I put up my last money to trade futures by myself. Tough road, but can't complain so far.

I believe all you need to become a successful trader (at least on the ES) is recognizing price action patterns, support/resistance and most importantly, NEWS.

I believe this volume thing I discovered has to do with the institutionals. I believe it will be much easier to see what I was originally talking about in this thread if one looks at a volume chart instead of a time chart. I hadn't done that yet though.

 

[Bakinec]

Quote from Gubinec:

ES will start goin' down around now 2 hours into the close!!

So, it's 4:10PM, any naysayers got anything to say? Not a big move, but 3-4 points ain't peanuts, and the best thing is, it hadn't closed up after all these red bars

 

[Stok]

So, are you using 15 minute bars? Or volume bars?

I assume you are looking for above average volume in a certain time frame or price range as turning points??

 

[Bakinec]

I hadn't tried volume bars as my platform doesn't have it, but like I said, I believe volume bars will provide a clearer picture of what I'm talking about. You could use any-minute bar, but 15 min is the optimal IMHO, as it's not too small and painstaking to count through and also not big enough to blow past that specific interval.

I look at the day session only and count the volume. After a certain volume interval (give or take a few units), the price often changes direction. That's how I called the move down 2 hours into the close.