I Sold 40% of My Portfolio Today

Quote from ByLoSellHi:

Screw this market.

You're going to see mass redemptions stretched out between now and February.

I've never felt more confident.

But I could be wrong. :D


We'll see.
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You can always buy back next week when we see new index highs. Yea yesterdays selloff was kinda painful for longs but jsut a blip on the radar.

Good luck.
 
In that case, me personally, I would do one of these things:

1) cash out completely and wait on the sidelines until the overall market pulls back to the 50 week moving average

2) go into a recession era portfolio with names like CVS, PG, K, Altria, AFLAC, etc.

Rather then just cash out 40%, I would instead cash it all out and wait on the sidelines.

The reasoning is that 32% is a very decent return. At some point, you have to be satisfied with what you have. All the signs are telling you that the market will pullback. Charts, news, everything. My gut instinct is telling me that such euphoria cant last forever.

32% is good enough and I would just rather cash my chips and walk away from the table in this case. Historically, there are always two pullbacks in any given year. Just wait for one of those pullbacks and then go in.

When the oil snaps up again soon, then the DOW is going to tank down 7-12%.

Look at the chart again, what do you see at the end. This isnt the VTI, this is now the DJIA chart. Look at the second to the end bar, thats a clear sign of trend reversal. Next bar is the hanging man signaling that the DOW is going to revert to the 50 week moving average. 11313

The penalty for cashing out everything and being wrong is that you gain nothing and walk away with 32% in gains.

The other penalty for not cashing out is putting your capital at risk when there are clear technical signs.

You dont trade ignoring the hanging man and so you dont invest that way either. Cash it all out and bring your capital into safe harbor.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p76504662264





Quote from ByLoSellHi:

eagle -

No. I sold 40% of my stock portfolio today (I sold all or part of my positions in 8 individual companies).

I did very well since June - I'm up about 32%.

But I just feel stocks will be much cheaper in 4-6 months because of the currency and housing issues that are going to start hammering cyclicals.

I don't believe a recession is avoidable now.
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Quote from hels02:

You may be right... but I think you're wrong.
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He cant be wrong, he sold 40% of his positions at a profit....that portion of his trade was very right....good job! :)
 
Quote from 5Pillars:

He cant be wrong, he sold 40% of his positions at a profit....that portion of his trade was very right....good job! :)
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Agreed, cash is still king.

....for the time being.:p
 
you guys buy and hold in other words follow a trend, in this case it was one hell of a trend

but I just day trade, and I already shorted NQ

I am a bit surprised to hear people talk about pulling out after a while

I thought there were more day traders here

come on day walkers, I mean day traders, lets kick some Vampire ass

Man I need some new movies :D
 
Your not wrong at all. You can never pick an exact top or an exact bottom.

Folks who constantly wait hoping it will go higher will never cash out and will ultimately end up riding it back down. The high could be a few weeks or even months from now.

I do know that eventually there will be a bottom though. . .Those who didnt sell at some point will instead ride it back down with the logic that they made all this cash and they were shareowners all this time...
 
Quote from HolyGrail:

I had the same problem with my mutual funds in May. I went down to 50% cash and bonds in mid-May in one lump sum. I didn't start increasing my exposure to stocks again until late August and I did it at a rate of 5% per month so I am sitting at 65% when I could have been at 95%. I pretty much permanently missed out on a great trend. By the time I get to 95% it will be time to lower exposure again. I guess the lesson is not to do anything in large sums over a short period of time.
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I decided after years of mutual funds that they don't do a better job stock picking than I do, and they all charge too much. So other than International funds (where I'd have to deal with taxes and maybe more commissions), I pick my own stocks. I absolutely do better than most fund managers.

I basically keep a 'core' basket of stocks that I rotate periodically, and swing trade a few volatile stocks. I've never done a percentage allocation of stocks like that... I was all long til just before Thanksgiving, when I went out of town, and went almost all in again on Monday at the dip.

I did pick up a loser (loser because it dived almost immediately) on Monday (ADBE), but I'm going to hold on to it, since I just bought the Creative Suite 2.3 myself and they're coming out with new versions of all the best website/graphics tools in 2007. I was going to buy some more at another good dip.

I don't see going into a diversified fund if things start to tank, since that's staying in the market.
 
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