I predict 12.6% Unemployment.

N

noob_trad3r

10.2 now

month
1 .2
2 .2
3 .2
4 .2
5 .2
6 .2
7 .2
8 .2
9 .2
10 .2
11 .2
12 .2

Total 12.2% 2010 (12/2010)

I used excel to run a model.
 
Did you factor in public sector job losses that are bound to occur going forward and states cannot keep holding all their workers when they are nearing bankruptcy?
 
Quote from ByLoSellHi:

The way the gov't reports its stats, 12.6% would be like a real world 22% to 24%, right?
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According to John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics, the current REAL unemployment rate is already 22%!
 
Quote from noob_trad3r:

10.2 now

month
1 .2
2 .2
3 .2
4 .2
5 .2
6 .2
7 .2
8 .2
9 .2
10 .2
11 .2
12 .2

Total 12.2% 2010 (12/2010)

I used excel to run a model.
More...

Why is a blind prediction of any interest?
 
I know they don't count people that have fallen off and don't look for a job, but to me that makes very little sense.

Or, can we call those people something else...

10% unemployment
15% not working, gave up

something

why do i need this information?

yea, i don't...but i'm sick of all the econ. number manipulated
 
Who really trusts these figures anyway?

Today's numbers were exclusively in private sector. Public sector jobs were virtually unchanged. So, the stimulus money has been "saving" jobs, but for how long?

There is no wealth creation going on anywhere. It's all about robbing future generations to make payroll today!
 
Correct me if I'm wrong but it looks like your model just adds 1 at each iteration, with a starting point of 1.2.

Quote from noob_trad3r:

10.2 now

month
1 .2
2 .2
3 .2
4 .2
5 .2
6 .2
7 .2
8 .2
9 .2
10 .2
11 .2
12 .2

Total 12.2% 2010 (12/2010)

I used excel to run a model.
More...
 
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