Quote from NoDoji:
In my expert opinion I sincerely believe that oil will hit 108.50 or below at some point from Monday onwards. However, it's possible that it could run well into the 120's or even higher before doing so.
The way it will happen is that there will be more sellers than buyers, which will drive price lower until it reaches 108.50, at which point rabid trend-following bots may begin snapping up contracts like food junkies at Hometown Buffet (that price level is right around the rising 20-day exponential moving average, one of the trend-followers' value price levels for entering, or adding to, a long position).
If price breaks out above 114.00 with conviction before pulling back to 108.50, then 108.50 may later become a sell trigger level, as it will then be below the rising moving average, indicating a deeper pullback to one of the lower trend lines.
Since you are new to trading, I offer you some sage advice that will save you from many losses:
Trade based on what price is doing right now in your trading time frame, not on your (or anyone else's) opinion of what price may do or should do.
If your trading time frame is the next week or so, you should already be long oil, or be looking for a price-based entry level to take a long position.
If you are short oil right now, you are probably underwater because you are trading against the prevailing trend. There was a pure counter-trend short setup on 4/11 and a possible trend reversal short setup early this week when price broke lower off a lower high, but these short positions were invalidated on Thursday and a short term swing trader with a counter-trend short on between 4/11 and last Monday would've closed out the short for a profit or at least break even and either switched to a long position on Thursday or is waiting for the next short signal to trigger.
